A potential political dead end
Why closing the border would be so like Trump
https://www.cnn.com/2019/04/02/politics/donald-trump-immigration-border-closure-crisis/index.html
2019-04-02 09:52:00Z
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CNN's Pamela Brown, Jim Acosta and Abby Phillip contributed to this story.
Drastic measures surrounding Brexit — including a no-deal departure or a snap general election — could be on the cards after the British Parliament failed yet again to agree on any alternative options.
Having rejected Prime Minister Theresa May's Brexit deal three times, U.K. Members of Parliament (MPs) voted Monday evening on four alternative options in the process, but all of them were rejected by a majority of lawmakers.
The option that came the closest to gaining a majority was a proposal to keep Britain in a permanent customs union with the EU. Meanwhile, a proposal for a confirmatory referendum on any deal got the most votes but was defeated by 292 to 280.
There is an increasing expectation now that Britain could go in one of four directions — toward a no-deal departure from the bloc, holding a snap general election, Parliament agreeing to the U.K. remaining within a customs union with the EU and/or holding a confirmatory referendum on any eventual strategy.
The defeat of alternative proposals has thrown British politics and Brexit into further confusion just days ahead of a default "no-deal" departure from the EU. There is also a tangible sense of disbelief in Europe at the inability of the U.K. to agree on Brexit.
Speaking in Brussels Tuesday, the bloc's chief negotiator Michel Barnier said a no-deal departure was becoming more likely "by the day," and that a strong justification would be needed for the EU to agree to a longer Brexit delay.
Brexit Secretary Stephen Barclay reminded Parliament Monday night that Britain was scheduled to leave the EU on April 12 if no deal was in place. A no-deal exit is seen as a dreaded cliff-edge scenario for businesses where the country has the rely on WTO trading rules.
But another delay to the departure date may need to be lengthy with the U.K. being urged to participate in EU Parliamentary elections in late May. A lengthy delay is a concern for pro-Brexit politicians who worry that it could lead to the whole process losing momentum.
Prime Minister May could attempt to hold a fourth vote on her Brexit deal later this week, despite three earlier defeats of the withdrawal agreement. Meanwhile, opposition Labour party leader Jeremy Corbyn called for another round of so-called "indicative votes" for Wednesday.
Sterling fell almost 1 percent to $1.3048 following the votes Monday night and was trading around the same mark Tuesday morning; London's FTSE 100 index was 0.3 percent higher in early deals.
Steen Jakobson, chief investment officer at Saxobank, told CNBC Tuesday that parliamentary debates over Brexit resembled a "trench war."
"If we go to the market implication, the hard no-deal (Brexit) has to be priced higher and higher for every hour that passes without any decision."
As Parliament shows itself so far unwilling to find a compromise, Brexit watchers have spoken of the possibility of a snap general election. How that could turn out is anyone's guess with Brexit throwing up unprecedented division among lawmakers and the public.
J.P. Morgan Economist Malcolm Barr noted that "the next day or so is likely to involve no small amount of finger pointing among those seeking either a 'softer' Brexit or a 'People's vote'." A People's Vote refers to a referendum on the Brexit deal on offer or revoking the whole departure process.
"We continue to think that a general election is the single most likely path forward in the coming weeks, even though that event raises a lot of questions for politicians on all sides," Barr said in a note Monday evening.
"With the indicative votes process having come so close to identifying a 'softer' path tonight, it looks likely more bargaining and tweaks to the motions will generate a positive outturn on Wednesday. It is not clear to us how PM May can forestall that, and the potential split in her party that could follow."
The EU's Barnier signaled that the bloc could accept a customs union with the U.K. but noted that the only way to avoid a no-deal Brexit "will be through a positive majority in the House of Commons" (the lower house of Parliament) putting the ball back in the U.K.'s court.
Lutfey Siddiqi, visiting professor-in-practice at the London School of Economics, told CNBC he believed that a middle way would still be found.
"Parliament has no appetite for a no-deal Brexit or no Brexit … I can see a center of gravity emerging in Parliament where it's towards a customs union perhaps with a confirmatory vote," he told CNBC's "Capital Connection" Tuesday.
"It's a game of brinkmanship (with the EU). We've got these two cars hurtling towards each other but in the British car there's a tussle going on both for the steering wheel and for the GPS navigation system. That makes it very hard to predict the exact sequence (of events)."
The Department of Defense announced Monday that it "suspended" deliveries of F-35 fighter jet parts and manuals to Turkey over the Middle Eastern country's decision to purchase a Russian air defense system over Washington's objection.
The U.S. had agreed to sell 100 of its latest, fifth-generation F-35 fighters to Turkey, initially planning to deliver the first two aircraft to Turkey in June. However, top government officials repeatedly have threatened to stop the sale if Ankara did not abandon efforts to buy the Russian S-400 system.
"The United States has been clear that Turkey's acquisition of the S-400 is unacceptable," said acting Pentagon spokesman Charles Summers Jr., who added: "[U]ntil they forgo delivery of the S-400, the United States has suspended deliveries and activities associated with the stand-up of Turkey's F-35 operational capability. Should Turkey procure the S-400, their continued participation in the F-35 program is at risk."
The U.S. move came just three days after Turkey's foreign minister said his country, a NATO ally, was committed to the deal to buy the Russian system and was discussing delivery dates.
"As a principle, it is contrary to international laws for a third country to oppose an agreement between two countries," Mevlut Cavusoglu said at a joint news conference with his Russian counterpart, Sergey Lavrov. "We are committed to this agreement. There can be no such thing as selling to a third country. We are buying them for our own needs."
Cavusoglu also insisted Turkey had met all of its obligations concerning the F-35 program.
The U.S. and other NATO allies have complained repeatedly about the purchase, saying it was not compatible with other allied systems and would represent a threat to the F-35.
Last month, Gen. Curtis M. Scaparrotti, the outgoing Supreme Allied Commander in Europe, told lawmakers on Capitol Hill that "my best military advice would be that we don't then follow through with the F-35, flying it or working with an ally that is working with Russian systems, particularly air defense systems."
Officials also have expressed concerns that Turkey's acquisition of both U.S. and Russian systems could give Moscow access to sophisticated American technology and allow it to find ways to counter the F-35.
Pentagon leaders have warned that ending Turkey's participation in production likely would force other allies to take on that role and could delay aircraft delivery.
Summers said Monday that the Pentagon "has initiated steps necessary to ensure prudent program planning and resiliency of the F-35 supply chain. Secondary sources of supply for Turkish-produced parts are now in development.
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"We very much regret the current situation facing our F-35 partnership with Turkey, and the DoD is taking prudent steps to protect the shared investments made in our critical technology," he said.
U.S. leaders have pressed Turkey to buy an American-made air defense battery, and in December the State Department approved the sale of a $3.5 billion U.S. Patriot system to Ankara.
Fox News' Lucas Tomlinson and The Associated Press contributed to this report.
The Department of Defense announced Monday that it "suspended" deliveries of F-35 fighter jet parts and manuals to Turkey over the Middle Eastern country's decision to purchase a Russian air defense system over Washington's objection.
The U.S. had agreed to sell 100 of its latest, fifth-generation F-35 fighters to Turkey, initially planning to deliver the first two aircraft to Turkey in June. However, top government officials repeatedly have threatened to stop the sale if Ankara did not abandon efforts to buy the Russian S-400 system.
"The United States has been clear that Turkey's acquisition of the S-400 is unacceptable," said acting Pentagon spokesman Charles Summers Jr., who added: "[U]ntil they forgo delivery of the S-400, the United States has suspended deliveries and activities associated with the stand-up of Turkey's F-35 operational capability. Should Turkey procure the S-400, their continued participation in the F-35 program is at risk."
The U.S. move came just three days after Turkey's foreign minister said his country, a NATO ally, was committed to the deal to buy the Russian system and was discussing delivery dates.
"As a principle, it is contrary to international laws for a third country to oppose an agreement between two countries," Mevlut Cavusoglu said at a joint news conference with his Russian counterpart, Sergey Lavrov. "We are committed to this agreement. There can be no such thing as selling to a third country. We are buying them for our own needs."
Cavusoglu also insisted Turkey had met all of its obligations concerning the F-35 program.
The U.S. and other NATO allies have complained repeatedly about the purchase, saying it was not compatible with other allied systems and would represent a threat to the F-35.
Last month, Gen. Curtis M. Scaparrotti, the outgoing Supreme Allied Commander in Europe, told lawmakers on Capitol Hill that "my best military advice would be that we don't then follow through with the F-35, flying it or working with an ally that is working with Russian systems, particularly air defense systems."
Officials also have expressed concerns that Turkey's acquisition of both U.S. and Russian systems could give Moscow access to sophisticated American technology and allow it to find ways to counter the F-35.
Pentagon leaders have warned that ending Turkey's participation in production likely would force other allies to take on that role and could delay aircraft delivery.
Summers said Monday that the Pentagon "has initiated steps necessary to ensure prudent program planning and resiliency of the F-35 supply chain. Secondary sources of supply for Turkish-produced parts are now in development.
CLICK HERE TO GET THE FOX NEWS APP
"We very much regret the current situation facing our F-35 partnership with Turkey, and the DoD is taking prudent steps to protect the shared investments made in our critical technology," he said.
U.S. leaders have pressed Turkey to buy an American-made air defense battery, and in December the State Department approved the sale of a $3.5 billion U.S. Patriot system to Ankara.
Fox News' Lucas Tomlinson and The Associated Press contributed to this report.
Istanbul, Turkey - Turkey's ruling party has lost mayoral elections in the country's largest three cities - Istanbul, Ankara and Izmir - in a stunning election setback for President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, according to unofficial results published by state-run Anadolu Agency on Monday.
The official results will be released after the country's election board looks into objections filed by political parties, who have three days to file complaints.
Anadolu's unofficial data shows Republican People's Party's (CHP) candidate Ekrem Imamoglu won the heated mayoral race in Istanbul, the country's largest city and economic centre, with 48.8 percent of the vote, while the ruling Justice and Development (AK Party) candidate Binali Yildirim got 48.5 percent.
In the capital, Ankara, unofficial results showed that CHP candidate Mansur Yavas had garnered 50.9 percent, with the AK Party nominee Mehmet Ozhaseki trailing on 47.2 percent.
In the third-largest city, Izmir, the CHP candidate, Mustafa Tunc Soyer, was leading with 58 percent votes while AK Party's Nihat Zeybekci stood at 38.5 percent.
All of the votes have been counted in the three largest cities.
The ruling AK Party, which ran as part of the People's Alliance, lost both Ankara and Istanbul in Sunday's local elections, which were held against the backdrop of Turkey's first recession in a decade while its lira currency lost as much as 40 percent of its value against the US dollar last year.
The race in Istanbul was particularly tight, with both AK Party and the CHP claiming victory in Istanbul's mayoral election.
Yildirim claimed early on Monday that he had won the race by around 4,000 votes, but later admitted he was 25,000 votes behind Imamoglu from CHP, which is part of the Nation Alliance.
Yildirim, however, said that his party had objections to the results over invalid votes.
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"There are 31,136 ballot boxes [in Istanbul]. If there is one invalid vote in each ballot box, it makes 31,136 votes in total, which is more than the difference [between the two sides]," he said, adding that there are some 315,500 invalid votes in the polls.
Sezgin Tanrikulu, a CHP MP from Istanbul, said that although Imamoglu won the race in Istanbul, the election board was waiting for the objection period to end for legal reasons to declare the official winner.
"There have been complaints about certain ballot boxes. Legally, the party objecting should show a valid reason in doing so over each particular ballot box. Therefore, the number of boxes votes will be recounted in is limited," he told Al Jazeera.
"The government should respect the results."
According to Galip Dalay, a visiting fellow at the University of Oxford, the results are not a mathematical loss for the AK Party, but they still would not be taken lightly by Erdogan's bloc.
"However, it is a psychological loss as it lost several major cities including the biggest three," Dalay, who is also a non-resident fellow at Brookings Institution in Doha, told Al Jazeera.
"Early elections are out of the picture due to the fact that it did not suffer major losses in terms of vote numbers, but the result might set a context for wider discussions within the party and the conservative camp in Turkey about policy choices."
Speaking at a news conference in Istanbul on Sunday, Erdogan acknowledged that his party had lost control in a number of cities and pledged that he would focus on carrying out economic reforms.
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Erdogan, who was elected last year as the country's first executive president, said the next polls would be held in June 2023, adding that Turkey would carefully implement a "strong economic programme" without compromising on free-market rules.
Ozgur Dilber, a CHP volunteer, said the results showed that the AK Party's popularity was waning.
"To me, the results are proof that the number of voters who want change is increasing," he told Al Jazeera speaking on the election results on Sunday.
The polls posed a major challenge for Erdogan, given a backdrop of high inflation and rising unemployment sparked by a major currency crisis last year.
Earlier this month, official statistics showed that in the last two quarters of 2018, the Turkish economy slipped into its first recession in a decade, as inflation and interest rates soared due to the currency meltdown.
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In February, inflation stood at just under 20 percent, while the Central Bank's main interest rate is currently 24 percent.
In the lead-up to Sunday's vote, the People's Alliance sought to link the local polls to internal and external risks threatening the country's security.
Erdogan has often blamed foreign powers and "speculators" for the currency fluctuations and other economic woes faced by Turkey - a message he repeated this week.
For its part, the main opposition alliance has focused its campaign on the economic situation and its effect on citizens.
It also used Turkish flags in their campaigns, rather than party banners, in an apparent bid to attract voters from different backgrounds.
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The British Parliament is voting yet again on Monday, in another attempt to try to break the Brexit impasse.
Members of Parliament (MPs) will try to see if they can agree on a new plan for the United Kingdom’s exit from the European Union by holding another round of “indicative votes.”
This is a follow-up to last Wednesday’s vote, when Parliament seized control of the Brexit process. Lawmakers debated and voted on eight Brexit options, from softer Brexit plans to a no-deal Brexit.
No plan won a majority in Parliament, although a few alternatives came close, including one option that would keep the UK in a customs union with the EU after the breakup.
Monday’s vote in Parliament is a second attempt to agree on one of those alternative plans. The options have been whittled down to the four, and the finalists chosen for a second vote mirror the plans that got a fair amount of support last week, but failed to win outright.
The hope is that now, with fewer choices on the ballot and time running out ahead of the April 12 Brexit deadline, MPs will rally behind a particular plan and offer up a Brexit compromise that can end the political stalemate and uncertainty.
Speaker of the House of Commons John Bercow selected four measures for Monday’s vote. Parliament is voting on two types of plans. The first involve different Brexit outcomes, meaning measures that would fundamentally change the type of EU-UK divorce on offer by putting forward a softer-style Brexit.
The others focus on process. This applies to the second referendum choice, or “confirmatory public vote,” as it’s being called, which would put any deal approved by Parliament back to the people — but since Parliament hasn’t accepted any plan, it’s not clear what that would be just yet.
The results are expected to come in at about 10:30 pm London time (5:30 pm EST):
This plan would allow for the UK to retain a form of membership in the customs union post-Brexit, which means the UK would continue to follow all the EU customs rules. Parliament defeated this plan last week by a margin of eight votes, 264-272.
This is a very “soft” Brexit proposal, meaning the UK and the EU would have very close economic ties. The model for this is Norway, which is not an EU member but has access to the EU single market (which broadly means free movement of goods, capital, services, and people) through seeking membership in the European Free Trade Association (EFTA) — which is made up of of Norway, Switzerland, Iceland, and Liechtenstein — and European Economic Area.
This plan would also call for negotiating membership in the customs union (which Norway doesn’t have), at least until the EU and UK could come up with a trade arrangement to guarantee an open border between Northern Ireland (part of the UK) and the Republic of Ireland (an EU member-state).
This was voted down 188-283 last week, but support for this plan has shot up since. The big reason for this change is the opposition Labour Party is now in favor of this plan and is whipping votes, trying to force members to back this measure. Labour has its own soft Brexit plan that was defeated last week, but it’s not on the ballot this time around, so Labour leaders are giving support to this plan.
This says that any Brexit deal approved by Parliament has to go back to the public for a “confirmatory” vote. To be clear, it doesn’t say exactly what will be on the ballot, just that the public gets a say in the final deal. This got the most “aye” votes last week, with 268, but 295 people still voted against it.
This plan would seek an extension to Brexit, and if that doesn’t happen, requests the prime minister stop Brexit by revoking Article 50 if the Parliament can’t approve a deal before the Brexit deadline and agrees it does not want to leave the EU without a plan. (Article 50 is the mechanism in the EU’s Lisbon Treaty that the UK is using to leave the bloc.) This plan lost 184-293 last week.
The above options comprise Parliament’s “Final Four.” But it’s still unclear what happens if one of them — or more than one — ends up with majority support this time around.
A lot will depend on Prime Minister Theresa May, who lost another vote on her Brexit withdrawal agreement last Friday. These indicative votes are nonbinding, meaning they can’t technically force May to do anything.
The prime minister has established certain “red lines” in Brexit — meaning things she would not compromise on — such as withdrawing the UK from EU institutions like the single market and customs union. These alternative Brexit plans clash with those red lines, and agreeing to them would infuriate the hardline pro-Brexit crowd in her party. And yet — May might not really have a choice if she wants to avoid the UK crashing out of the EU on April 12 without a deal.
And the European Union also matters here. It’ll have to agree to any plan the UK puts forward and may be forced to grant the UK a much longer Brexit extension.
A useful chart by Simon Usherwood, deputy director at the independent think tank UK in a Changing Europe, shows that the EU would be amenable to most of these plans — although not all of them are free from complications.
Parliament is the closest it’s ever been to charting a new Brexit course. But there’s no guarantee that MPs will succeed, and they could easily fail once again to agree to any of these four plans.
And whatever MPs decide Monday — if they decide — still has to be implemented, for real this time. If politicians fail to come to a consensus, then the UK is facing the prospect of a no-deal Brexit on April 12, or will likely need to ask the EU for a much, much longer extension.
CARACAS, Venezuela – Venezuelans are struggling to understand an announcement that the nation's electricity is being rationed to combat daily blackouts.
Office worker Raquel Mayorca said Monday she didn't know if her lights were off because of another power failure — or whether it was part of the government's plans. She said the power was out on one side of the street, but working on the other.
President Nicolas Maduro said a day earlier that he was instituting a 30-day plan to ration electricity but provided no details.
He called on Venezuelans to be calm, accusing U.S.-backed opponents of launching an attack on the power grid.
Opposition leader Juan Guaido says years of government neglect have left the grid in shambles.
He asked people to take to the streets to overthrow Maduro's government.