https://www.cnn.com/2019/04/10/middleeast/israel-election-results-benjamin-netanyahu-benny-gantz-intl/index.html
2019-04-10 10:05:00Z
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• Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s polarizing, right-wing prime minister, was in position to win a fourth consecutive term as leader on Wednesday, with 94 percent of the votes counted. But the race was extremely tight, and his main rival, Benny Gantz, had also claimed victory, though he later tempered expectations.
• When the ballots are fully counted, it will be up to President Reuven Rivlin to choose the party leader he believes has the best chance of assembling a parliamentary majority. Mr. Netanyahu’s Likud party and Mr. Gantz’s Blue and White party were running neck and neck, but a count of the broader blocs supporting each party gave Likud a clear advantage in being able to form a governing coalition.
• Regardless of the final result, the election appeared to be a grave scare for Mr. Netanyahu, 69, who has led Israel for a decade of relative security and prosperity. More than a million Israelis voted for Blue and White, a record for a new party, placing it in the position of being the main alternative to Israel’s right wing, a spot once held by the Labor Party.

Having claimed victory after the first wave of exit polls, only to see later results appear to hand the election to Mr. Netanyahu, Mr. Gantz, 59, wrote to supporters on Wednesday morning sounding at once less bullish but still hopeful.
“Reports tell an unfinished story,” he said in a midmorning message. “Yes, odds may not seem in our favor but two things are missing: The first is certainty, as there is still a possibility of electoral shifts that will allow us to engage in various political endeavors.
“The second is, without doubt, recognition of the great hope we delivered to the Israeli people and society,” he continued. “Our voters asked for hope and we gave it to them. They wanted a different path and we carved it out for them. We will not stand down from our civil duty to represent over a million citizens who searched for an alternative.
“We have a historic achievement under our belt. We have a reason to be proud, and so we will.”
The tight nature of the race meant many Israelis went to bed on Tuesday suspended in a post-ballot twilight zone: The exit polls of the three main television channels were sufficiently disparate that both sides claimed victory.
“This is a night of tremendous victory,” Mr. Netanyahu said just after 2 a.m., at a celebration where a crowd cheered him and chanted, “Bibi, king of Israel.” “I believe that the Lord and history have given the people of Israel another opportunity, a golden opportunity to turn our country into a strong nation, among the strongest nations of the world.”
Likud and Blue and White appeared to have won at least 35 seats each in the 120-seat Parliament, and by Wednesday morning, the Central Elections Committee should release close-to-final results based on some 99 percent of the polls.
The action will then shift to the official residence of President Reuven Rivlin. He will receive a parade of party representatives over the next few days who will lobby for their choices for the next prime minister. Mr. Rivlin will then ask the candidate he thinks has the best chance of forming a government to do so.
That candidate will have 42 days to try to forge a coalition with the support of at least 61 seats in the 120-seat Parliament.
That is likely to be Mr. Netanyahu. The right-wing and religious parties were on track to win a potential majority of at least 65 seats, leaving the center-left bloc with 55.
“For the first time in Israel’s history the president’s role may be more than symbolic, and he may have to exercise judgment in choosing who will form the next government,” Yohnan Plesner, president of the Israel Democracy Institute, wrote on Twitter.
That prospect has alarmed Mr. Netanyahu, whose relationship with Mr. Rivlin, a Likud veteran, has long been one of deep, mutual loathing. “Legally, Rivlin can give the task of forming the government to whoever he wants,” said Abraham Diskin, a professor emeritus of political science at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem.
In most cases, the party with the largest number of seats is given the first crack at forming a government. In 2009, Tzipi Livni’s Kadima Party won the most votes but failed to build a viable coalition. Mr. Netanyahu, whose Likud party came in second, was tasked with forming the government.
[See our guide to the Israeli elections.]
Early analysis showed a historically low turnout among Arab citizens of Israel, many of whom boycotted the vote out of disillusionment with Israeli politics and with their own politicians.
By nightfall Arab leaders were frantically trying to rally their supporters, mosques were broadcasting appeals from minaret loudspeakers, and a last-minute surge of participation seemed to materialize in some predominantly Arab towns, though that was not captured in exit polls.
Among Arab voters, where a boycott movement appeared to be having a strong effect, the haranguing was especially intense.
“The right is planning to crush the Arab parties, it wants to erase us off the political arena,” Mtanes Shehadeh, a spokesman for the struggling Ram-Balad party, wrote in a WhatsApp message to supporters. “This is Netanyahu’s dream.”
Just days ago, Mr. Netanyahu unexpectedly promised to begin extending Israeli sovereignty over the occupied West Bank if re-elected. The move would probably doom a two-state solution and appeared to be a last-ditch effort to rally his right-wing base.
Mr. Gantz’s party had come out against the idea of annexing West Bank settlements, but it had been vague about allowing a Palestinian state alongside Israel.

Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan stresses the need for dialogue with India over Kashmir in an interview with the BBC's John Simpson.
The former cricketer, who became leader eight months ago, said peace with India over the disputed territory of Kashmir would be "tremendous" for the wider region.
The comments come as India prepares to vote in a general election, weeks after an upsurge of violence between the nuclear-armed neighbours in Kashmir.

Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan stresses the need for dialogue with India over Kashmir in an interview with the BBC's John Simpson.
The former cricketer, who became leader eight months ago, said peace with India over the disputed territory of Kashmir would be "tremendous" for the wider region.
The comments come as India prepares to vote in a general election, weeks after an upsurge of violence between the nuclear-armed neighbours in Kashmir.

European leaders will decide on Wednesday whether to grant the U.K. another extension to its departure from the bloc, due to take place on Friday April 12.
The EU's 28 leaders, including British Prime Minister Theresa May, are heading to Brussels for an emergency summit dedicated to Brexit. This after May asked the bloc for a second delay to the U.K.'s departure.
The summit begins at 17:00 London time and May will formally present her case for requesting a short delay to Brexit until June 30, asking for the option to leave if a deal is agreed by the U.K. Parliament before then.
It's widely expected that the U.K. will be granted a longer, flexible extension with conditions attached, however, according to an invitation letter sent to EU leaders by European Council President Donald Tusk on Tuesday.
"I believe we should also discuss an alternative, longer extension. One possibility would be a flexible extension, which would last only as long as necessary and no longer than one year," Tusk said in his letter.
He called for a longer delay to avoid "the risk of a rolling series of short extensions and emergency summits, creating new cliff-edge dates."
Conditions that the U.K. could have to abide by, Tusk noted, would include no re-opening of negotiations over the withdrawal agreement (the Brexit deal) on offer. The U.K. could leave earlier than a newly agreed departure date if a deal is in place and Tusk reiterated that the U.K. could revoke Article 50 (the departure process) at any time.
A draft EU document circulated to diplomats ahead of the emergency meeting of EU leaders proposes an extension but leaves the date blank. It also notes that an extension cannot be used to undermine the EU or to start trade talks.
German Finance Minister Olaf Scholz told CNBC Tuesday that Germany is "well-prepared for an agreement or a Brexit without an agreement … (but) it would be better to have something that is with a deal," he told CNBC's Annette Weisbach Tuesday.
Scholz welcomed talks between May and opposition Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn and said "the main thing now is to get an agreement in Parliament … I'm still a big fan of the tradition of pragmatism in Great Britain and I'm sure that this tradition will be a basis for a solution."
The U.K.'s request for an extension comes after a prolonged period of disarray in British politics over Brexit with 'Brexiteers' and 'Remainers' still sorely divided over the departure.
A majority of British lawmakers rejected May's Brexit deal three times and failed to find a majority in support of alternative options, but also rejected a departure without a deal. May has been holding cross-party talks in the hope that a compromise can be found over the deal.
Although there has been some reluctance among certain EU members (notably France) to grant the U.K. more time, with concerns the U.K. would have to take part in EU Parliamentary elections in late May but as a departing member could disrupt the EU's decision-making processes.
None the less, there is a recognition that a no-deal departure – the now infamous "cliff-edge" scenario where there is no post-EU transition period -- would be economically and politically disruptive for both the U.K. and its counterparts across the channel.
Tusk's invitation letter came after May traveled to Berlin and Paris Tuesday for talks with the German and French leaders in a bid to secure backing for a second delay to Brexit. German Chancellor Angela Merkel said a delay until the start of 2020 was a possibility.
Meanwhile, Downing Street said in a statement that May had sought to reassure French President Emmanuel Macron that the U.K. government was "working very hard to avoid the need for the U.K. to take part" in EU Parliamentary elections.
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in Tehran on Feb. 8. President Donald Trump in Las Vegas on Saturday.
Photo illustration by Slate. Photos by Iran’s Religious Leader Press Office/Handout/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images and Ethan Miller/Getty Images.
President Donald Trump’s designation of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corps as a “foreign terrorist organization” is likely to spark more violence in the region—and may be intended to do so.
In one sense, the move—the latest escalation in Trump’s “maximum pressure” campaign against the Islamic republic—will have only modest impact. The military unit (often abbreviated as the IRGC) was already sanctioned by the Treasury Department, in 2017, for its material support of terrorist groups, such as Hamas and Hezbollah. The Iranian government as a whole has been on the State Department’s list of “state sponsors of terrorism,” which carries economic penalties, since 1984. (There are, today, only three other states on the list: Sudan, Syria, and North Korea.)
The new designation, which was announced Monday and will take effect April 15, steps up the pressure in two ways: It imposes criminal penalties on anyone who knowingly does business with the IRGC (which controls about 20 percent of Iran’s economy), and it bars members of the IRGC and its affiliates—who number roughly 11 million—from travel to the United States.
But the move also crosses a boldly drawn line. It marks the first time the United States has designated a branch of a foreign government’s military as a terrorist organization. The IRGC is many things: a local economic powerhouse, a means of assisting and training Iranian allies and militias in the region; but it is also a praetorian guard and special forces unit of the Iranian military.
For the United States and many other countries, the longer-term potential for blowback is considerable.
In the bureaucratic debates leading up to Monday’s announcement, Trump’s move was reportedly opposed by Gen. Joseph Dunford, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and by senior civilian officials in the Pentagon, for two reasons: It could harm American allies, and it could endanger American troops.
For some allies, the decision could have an immediate impact. Although the IRGC supports militias such as Hamas and Hezbollah, it also helps the Shiite-led government in Iraq fight off Sunni militias such as al-Qaida and ISIS. To designate the IRGC as a terrorist organization would make Iraq—an ally of the United States—a state sponsor of terrorism.
For the United States and many other countries, the longer-term potential for blowback is considerable. Many of the world’s special forces, air forces, and intelligence series—including those of the United States and its allies—commit acts that kill or terrorize civilians, sometimes deliberately. Trump’s move sets a precedent by which the victims of those acts, or their allies, might declare the attackers to be terrorist organizations.
In fact, Iran’s Supreme National Security Council has already responded by labeling U.S. Central Command—which controls all U.S. military operations in the Middle East and Central Asia—a terrorist organization. Iran has no way to impose economic sanctions on the United States, but its militias and their allies might now regard any of the command’s 200,000 personnel as legitimate targets in an attack—just as the U.S. military does for members of organizations that American leaders have labeled “terrorists.”
Presumably Trump was briefed on the severe risks, and the modest benefits, of his decision. So why did he go ahead and make it anyway? There were, I suspect, three converging motives.
First, and perhaps above all, Trump did it to help his friend, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, win his tight reelection contest this week. The timing was too close to be mere coincidence. Netanyahu, in fact, sent Trump a letter thanking him for the decision. Interestingly, according to the New York Times, in the Hebrew version of the letter—which Netanyahu released to the public—he thanked Trump “for accepting another important request of mine.” In the English version, this passage was omitted. Was Netanyahu falsely taking credit for the decision to boost his chances of reelection? Or was the idea truly his, and by deleting the reference, was he shielding Trump from being seen, by American voters, as his puppet?
Second, ever since taking office, Trump has been hellbent on hurting the Iranian government—one of vanishingly few authoritarian regimes whose leaders he doesn’t like—in as many ways as he can, and this is but the latest move in that campaign.
Third, it is worth noting who was advocating this move inside the administration—Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and National Security Adviser John Bolton. Pompeo has spoken many times about encouraging the Iranian people to rise up against their oppressive leaders. Bolton, when he was a think-tank neocon and a Fox News pundit, spoke out, even more frequently and avidly, for a policy of regime change in Iran.
Bolton may be hoping that Trump’s designation will provoke the IRGC to attack American service members in the region—because that would provide an opening to attack Iran.
Whatever one makes of the Iranian government or the IRGC, it is hard to see how this stratagem—Trump’s designation or Bolton’s exploitation of its consequences—leads to a good place. If the regime in Tehran were somehow toppled, it is very unlikely that Western-leaning democrats would rise up to take their place—especially if the ouster was traced to Americans. The successors would much more likely be the commanders of the IRGC. And if Trump’s designation managed in the meantime to weaken the IRGC, the new leaders would likely be the shrewder—and perhaps even more militant—officers from within its ranks. Either that, or anarchy would erupt. And, in a country twice as populous and three times as large as Iraq, with a history of mistrusting Western intruders, the chance is nil that U.S. interests will come out ahead in the ensuing struggle for power and resources.
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