Iranian leader announces partial withdrawal from nuclear deal - CNN

President Hassan Rouhani said in a televised speech Wednesday that Iran would reduce its "commitments" to the deal, but would not fully withdraw.

The move comes a year after the US unilaterally withdrew from the deal, over the stringent objections of other signatories. Rouhani said those signatories -- France, Britain, Germany, Russia and China -- had been informed in advance of Tehran's move.

He accused "hardliners" in the US of working to undermine the deal, saying it was "in the interests of the region and the world, but not the enemies of Iran, therefore they spared no effort since 2015 to undermine (the deal)."

Under the agreement, Iran was permitted to stockpile limited amounts enriched uranium and heavy water produced in that process, exporting any excess. Doing so has become extremely difficult after the US revoked waivers that allowed Iran to export those excess stockpiles, effectively forcing Iran to halt enrichment or ignore the limits, which it is now doing.

"The Islamic Republic of Iran declares that at the current stage, it does not any more see itself committed to respecting the limitations on keeping enriched uranium and heavy water reserves," Iran's Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) said in a statement carried by the semi-official Fars news agency.

The SNSC said other partners would have 60 days to alleviate pressure on Iran caused by subsequent US sanctions, otherwise the country "will cease implementation of restrictions on uranium enrichment levels and measures related to the modernization of Arak Heavy Water Reactor as well."

"Once our demands are met, we will resume implementation of the ceased undertakings. Otherwise, the Islamic Republic of Iran will stop compliance with its other undertakings in consequent phases," the SNSC said.

On Twitter, Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif said that the country was stopping measures that Washington "has made impossible to continue."

"Our action is within the terms of (the deal)," said Zarif adding that the other signatories had "a narrowing window to reverse this."

Iran is a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and has always maintained that its nuclear research is purely civilian in nature.

Trump turnaround

The deal with Iran was widely hailed as a major diplomatic victory by the Barack Obama administration, but one that was immediately criticized by his successor.

Last year, US President Donald Trump withdrew his country from the deal, saying it was "defective at its core" and reimposing sanctions. Since then, anti-Iran hawks within his administration, particularly Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and national security adviser John Bolton, have been ramping up pressure on Tehran.

This week, Pompeo made a surprise visit to Iran's neighbor Iraq, where he accused Tehran of making military moves, including transporting short- and medium-range ballistic missiles aboard boats in the Persian Gulf, much of which falls within Iranian territorial waters or the country's Exclusive Economic Zone.

Speaking to reporters, Pompeo said he discussed the "threat stream we had seen" from Iran and stressed "the importance of Iraq ensuring that it's able to adequately protect Americans in their country."

The US Defense Department is now considering sending additional firepower to the region, including anti-missile defense systems, according to several US officials with knowledge of the situation.

Pompeo is a proponent of a "maximum pressure" approach to Iran, and in the past has appeared to support regime change in Tehran, such as in a speech last year in which he said the goal of the US was "to get the Iranian regime to behave like a normal nation."

Since then, the US has reintroduced all nuclear-related sanctions among a slew of other punitive measures. In the past month, it has moved to cut off Iran's oil revenues, its chief source of foreign income, put curbs on its civilian nuclear work, and designated Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps, the elite military group with deep political and economic influence, as a terrorist entity.

What was the original deal?

Officially titled the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or JCPOA, the nuclear deal was intended to limit Iran's civilian energy program -- thereby preventing it from developing nuclear weapons at some point in the future -- in exchange for relief from sanctions that were crippling the Iranian economy.

The deal was struck in Vienna following two years of intensive talks orchestrated by the Obama administration. It was signed by Iran and six other nations in 2015 -- the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Russia, China and Germany. The accord was also enshrined in a UN Security Council resolution, making it international law.

Under the deal, the Iranian government agreed to three key things:

Reducing the number of its centrifuges by two-thirds (centrifuges are tube-shaped machines used to enrich uranium, the material necessary for nuclear power); slashing its stockpile of enriched uranium by 98%; and capping uranium enrichment at 3.67% -- enough to continue powering parts of the country's energy needs, but not enough to ever build a nuclear bomb.

In addition, Iran was required to limit uranium research and development, and allow inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) certain access to its civilian nuclear facilities.

In return for its compliance, all nuclear-related sanctions on Iran were lifted in January 2016, reconnecting the country's stagnating economy with international markets.

CNN's Steve George and Nicole Gaouette contributed reporting.

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https://www.cnn.com/2019/05/08/middleeast/iran-nuclear-deal-intl/index.html

2019-05-08 07:05:00Z
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Iranian leader announces partial withdrawal from nuclear deal - CNN

President Hassan Rouhani said in a televised speech Wednesday that Iran would reduce its "commitments" to the deal, but would not fully withdraw.

The move comes a year after the US unilaterally withdrew from the deal, over the stringent objections of other signatories. Rouhani said those signatories -- France, Britain, Germany, Russia and China -- had been informed in advance of Tehran's move.

He accused "hardliners" in the US of working to undermine the deal, saying it was "in the interests of the region and the world, but not the enemies of Iran, therefore they spared no effort since 2015 to undermine (the deal)."

Under the agreement, Iran was permitted to stockpile limited amounts enriched uranium and heavy water produced in that process, exporting any excess. Doing so has become extremely difficult after the US revoked waivers that allowed Iran to export those excess stockpiles, effectively forcing Iran to halt enrichment or ignore the limits, which it is now doing.

"The Islamic Republic of Iran declares that at the current stage, it does not any more see itself committed to respecting the limitations on keeping enriched uranium and heavy water reserves," Iran's Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) said in a statement carried by the semi-official Fars news agency.

The SNSC said other partners would have 60 days to alleviate pressure on Iran caused by subsequent US sanctions, otherwise the country "will cease implementation of restrictions on uranium enrichment levels and measures related to the modernization of Arak Heavy Water Reactor as well."

"Once our demands are met, we will resume implementation of the ceased undertakings. Otherwise, the Islamic Republic of Iran will stop compliance with its other undertakings in consequent phases," the SNSC said.

On Twitter, Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif said that the country was stopping measures that Washington "has made impossible to continue."

"Our action is within the terms of (the deal)," said Zarif adding that the other signatories had "a narrowing window to reverse this."

Iran is a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and has always maintained that its nuclear research is purely civilian in nature.

Trump turnaround

The deal with Iran was widely hailed as a major diplomatic victory by the Barack Obama administration, but one that was immediately criticized by his successor.

Last year, US President Donald Trump withdrew his country from the deal, saying it was "defective at its core" and reimposing sanctions. Since then, anti-Iran hawks within his administration, particularly Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and national security adviser John Bolton, have been ramping up pressure on Tehran.

This week, Pompeo made a surprise visit to Iran's neighbor Iraq, where he accused Tehran of making military moves, including transporting short- and medium-range ballistic missiles aboard boats in the Persian Gulf, much of which falls within Iranian territorial waters or the country's Exclusive Economic Zone.

Speaking to reporters, Pompeo said he discussed the "threat stream we had seen" from Iran and stressed "the importance of Iraq ensuring that it's able to adequately protect Americans in their country."

The US Defense Department is now considering sending additional firepower to the region, including anti-missile defense systems, according to several US officials with knowledge of the situation.

Pompeo is a proponent of a "maximum pressure" approach to Iran, and in the past has appeared to support regime change in Tehran, such as in a speech last year in which he said the goal of the US was "to get the Iranian regime to behave like a normal nation."

Since then, the US has reintroduced all nuclear-related sanctions among a slew of other punitive measures. In the past month, it has moved to cut off Iran's oil revenues, its chief source of foreign income, put curbs on its civilian nuclear work, and designated Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps, the elite military group with deep political and economic influence, as a terrorist entity.

What was the original deal?

Officially titled the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or JCPOA, the nuclear deal was intended to limit Iran's civilian energy program -- thereby preventing it from developing nuclear weapons at some point in the future -- in exchange for relief from sanctions that were crippling the Iranian economy.

The deal was struck in Vienna following two years of intensive talks orchestrated by the Obama administration. It was signed by Iran and six other nations in 2015 -- the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Russia, China and Germany. The accord was also enshrined in a UN Security Council resolution, making it international law.

Under the deal, the Iranian government agreed to three key things:

Reducing the number of its centrifuges by two-thirds (centrifuges are tube-shaped machines used to enrich uranium, the material necessary for nuclear power); slashing its stockpile of enriched uranium by 98%; and capping uranium enrichment at 3.67% -- enough to continue powering parts of the country's energy needs, but not enough to ever build a nuclear bomb.

In addition, Iran was required to limit uranium research and development, and allow inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) certain access to its civilian nuclear facilities.

In return for its compliance, all nuclear-related sanctions on Iran were lifted in January 2016, reconnecting the country's stagnating economy with international markets.

CNN's Steve George and Nicole Gaouette contributed reporting.

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2019-05-08 06:19:00Z
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WORST CASE SCENARIO: Here's what it looks like if Trump starts a trade war with China - CNBC

Wall Street's top investment banks are preparing clients for the worst possible trade war outcomes as the U.S. prepares to ratchet up its tariffs on goods imported from China, telling clients to "fasten your seatbelt and don't hold your breath."

Strategists from UBS to Bank of America detailed their worst case scenarios for the U.S., Chinese and European stock markets, with all forecasting more selling if Washington can't remedy its trade spats around the world.

Market jitters stemming from an escalated trade fight between the globe's two largest economies could be so bad that is could send the S&P 500 in a correction, wrote UBS strategist Keith Parker. In that bear case scenario, Parker added, European markets and cyclical U.S. sectors including metals, mining and automobiles could be in for the most pain.

Stock market impact

Parker said that UBS predicted a max trade-related sell-off of 19% back in the fourth quarter of 2018, but he now sees about 10% downside.

"With risks having increased, it is worth asking where the largest asset market moves could occur if trade tensions were to rise further," the strategist wrote Tuesday.

Global equities have been on edge this week after President Donald Trump tweeted on Sunday that the current 10% tax on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods will rise to 25% on Friday. The Dow Jones industrial average is down about 450 points this week, while the S&P 500 shed 1.9%.

Dow components with a high proportion of sales coming from international buyers Boeing, Apple and Caterpillar are down 4%, 3.5% and 3.4% this week, respectively.

_{Source: UBS}

For its part, Bank of America Merrill Lynch said its bear case includes a U.S. tariff hike and a response from China on U.S.-made cars. Beijing could also decide to buy more soybeans from Brazil instead of the U.S., putting the pressure on farmers throughout the country.

"Fasten your seatbelt and don't hold your breath," Bank of America strategists wrote Monday. "The latest escalation of the trade war was completely unexpected, despite the strength of the economy and the markets. This is evident from the immediate negative reaction of U.S. equity futures to the news."

But an inflamed trade war would have sizable impacts on European and Asian markets, too.

Based on models complied by UBS' Parker, the Stoxx 600 index — which tracks large, mid and small capitalization companies among 17 European countries — could see another approximate slide of 7% if trade tensions worsen. The index is already 3.3% off its 52-week high.

Economic impact

He added that full-blown trade war would shave off 45 basis points from global economic growth, while China's GDP would take a hit of between 1.2% and 1.5%.

For his part, Morgan Stanley Head of U.S. Public Policy Strategy Michael Zezas wrote that while his base case expects China's GDP growth to recover to 6.5% in the second the third quarters, a U.S. tariff hike could cut that estimate by 0.3 percentage points.

"While we expect a re-escalation would be temporary, as market weakness would help bring both sides back together, any escalation inherently augments uncertainty and further undercuts risk markets," Zezas said.

Further, if China responds by raising their weighted tariffs on $60 billion of U.S. goods to 15% from the current 7%, that could reduce U.S. GDP by 0.1 percentage points.

Negative surprises like a potential re-escalation of trade tensions can have a greater price impact than fundamentals might dictate, " Zezas told clients. "Near-term downside risk for Chinese equities onshore and offshore could be down 8% to 12%, arguably the biggest among major markets we cover."

Will Fed step in?

To be sure, trade deliberations aren't the only force at play in the markets. Any continued turbulence between the U.S. and China could be mediated by the Federal Reserve by lowering interest rates, suggested DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas.

"With US equity volatility looking to rise this week, markets will inevitably back into an ever-stronger view that Fed policy will have to shift," Colas wrote Monday. "On the plus side, that should limit daily slides in stock prices. On the downside, it paints the Fed into an ever-tighter corner. And it will force equity investors to have higher conviction that a rate cut is coming than the central bank itself has just now."

Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in March that weaker Chinese and European economies are undermining U.S. growth.

"Now we see a situation where the European economy has slowed substantially and so has the Chinese economy, although the European economy more," he said at the time. "Just as strong global growth was a tail wind, weaker global growth can be a headwind to our economy."

That Powell and other Fed members have spent so much time in recent meeting discussing softer growth in Asia and Europe could mean that the central bank could step in and lower borrowing costs if it felt the U.S. economy needed a boost.

Still, many Wall Street insiders had assumed that the relative calm in U.S.-Chinese trade relations to start the year would soon lead to a permanent resolution. Instead, Trump's weekend remarks that trade progress is moving "too slowly" caught many — including UBS Washington strategist Chris Krueger — by surprise.

Paying homage to the doomed British cavalry charge of the 1850s, Krueger poked fun at the renewed barbs between the two nations in a portion of his market warning entitled "The Charge of the Lighthizer Brigade."

Prior to U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer's Monday comments, Cowen had assumed the "'Great Man' theory would hold, Trump and Xi would have the best conversation, talks would continue, and Trump would put tariffs on hold for ~30 days," Krueger wrote.

Lighthizer told reporters Monday that the planned tariff increased will take effect at 12:01 a.m. on Friday, but added that Chinese Vice Premier Liu He is expected to join a trade delegation in the United States this week.

"This was Trump acting out on a rainy Sunday in Washington with nothing on the public schedule," he added. "To paraphrase Lenin: there are decades where nothing happens and there are weeks when decades happen...and then there is a single week in the Trump Presidency. What a time to be alive."

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2019-05-07 15:47:48Z
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Dow falls 400 points as Wall Street gets tariff whiplash - CNN

Around midday, the Dow (DJIEW), S&P 500 (SPX) and Nasdaq (COMP) were all solidly in the red, adding to their losses from earlier in the day and yesterday. The Dow was at one point down some 400 points before bouncing back ever so slightly. The S&P 500 was down 1.4% and the Nasdaq fell 1.5%, also both adding to their earlier losses.

Global stocks were ailing after President Donald Trump Sunday threatened further tariffs on Chinese imports, throwing global markets into disarray. Investors previously expected Beijing and Washington to be close to sorting out a trade deal after months of negotiations.

The "Goldilocks" investing environment of low inflation and high growth had calmed investors' nerves over the past several months. But political risk came back with a vengeance after the US-China trade negotiations seem to be on thinner ice than previously thought possible this late in the talks.

Monday's selloff started with the Dow opening sharply lower, but stocks recovered most of their losses yesterday as trading went on. Investors took some comfort after Chinese Vice Premier Liu said he remains scheduled to travel to the US this week.

"Markets appear to be holding on to hope that US-China trade negotiations will not be derailed, amid reports that this week's trade talks in Washington will still take place," said Han Tan, Market Analyst at FXTM.

Many have weighed whether the presidential tweet was just a negotiation tactic. Analysts at Bank of America believe that both parties at the table remain motivated to agree a deal.

Speaking to reporters on Monday, US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said China reneged on previous agreements over the weekend, undermining progress towards a detailed trade agreement between the world's two largest economies.

Lighthizer, the top US trade negotiator, said the administration would increase penalties on $200 billion of Chinese goods to 25% from 10% on Friday. Trump renewed his threat to raise tariffs on Sunday.

"That assumption is likely to be tested sooner rather than later, and the initial optimism that Trump's truculence was bluster was tempered somewhat by trade representative Robert Lighthizer's claims that China had backpedalled on certain elements on what had already been agreed," said Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC.

European stocks ended Tuesday broadly lower. Asian markets ended their day mixed, with the Shanghai Composite (SHCOMP) closing 0.7% higher, retracing some of its 5.6% drop on Monday, according to Refinitiv.

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https://www.cnn.com/2019/05/07/investing/global-selloff-whats-next/index.html

2019-05-07 15:37:00Z
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Stock losses accelerate as Wall Street gets tariff whiplash - CNN

The Dow (DJIEW), S&P 500 (SPX) and Nasdaq (COMP) were all solidly in the red. The Dow was more than 300 points lower after about an hour of trading. The S&P 500 was down 1.3%% and the Nasdaq fell 1.3%, also both adding to their earlier losses.

On Sunday, President Donald Trump threatened further tariffs on Chinese imports, throwing global markets into disarray. Investors previously expected Beijing and Washington to be close to sorting out a trade deal after months of negotiations.

The "Goldilocks" investing environment of low inflation and high growth had calmed investors' nerves over the past several months. But political risk came back with a vengeance after the US-China trade negotiations seem to be on thinner ice than previously thought possible this late in the talks.

Monday's selloff started with the Dow opening sharply lower, but stocks recovered most of their losses yesterday as trading went on. Investors took some comfort after Chinese Vice Premier Liu said he remains scheduled to travel to the US this week.

"Markets appear to be holding on to hope that US-China trade negotiations will not be derailed, amid reports that this week's trade talks in Washington will still take place," said Han Tan, Market Analyst at FXTM.

Many have weighed whether the presidential tweet was just a negotiation tactic. Analysts at Bank of America believe that both parties at the table remain motivated to agree a deal.

Speaking to reporters on Monday, US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said China reneged on previous agreements over the weekend, undermining progress towards a detailed trade agreement between the world's two largest economies.

Lighthizer, the top US trade negotiator, said the administration would increase penalties on $200 billion of Chinese goods to 25% from 10% on Friday. Trump renewed his threat to raise tariffs on Sunday.

"That assumption is likely to be tested sooner rather than later, and the initial optimism that Trump's truculence was bluster was tempered somewhat by trade representative Robert Lighthizer's claims that China had backpedalled on certain elements on what had already been agreed," said Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC.

European stocks are broadly lower. Asian markets ended their day mixed, with the Shanghai Composite (SHCOMP) closing 0.7% higher, retracing some of its 5.6% drop on Monday, according to Refinitiv.

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https://www.cnn.com/2019/05/07/investing/global-selloff-whats-next/index.html

2019-05-07 14:21:00Z
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Dow opens 200 points lower as Wall Street gets tariff whiplash - CNN

The Dow (DJIEW), S&P 500 (SPX) and Nasdaq (COMP) were all solidly in the red. The Dow was more than 300 points lower after about an hour of trading. The S&P 500 was down 1.3%% and the Nasdaq fell 1.3%, also both adding to their earlier losses.

On Sunday, President Donald Trump threatened further tariffs on Chinese imports, throwing global markets into disarray. Investors previously expected Beijing and Washington to be close to sorting out a trade deal after months of negotiations.

The "Goldilocks" investing environment of low inflation and high growth had calmed investors' nerves over the past several months. But political risk came back with a vengeance after the US-China trade negotiations seem to be on thinner ice than previously thought possible this late in the talks.

Monday's selloff started with the Dow opening sharply lower, but stocks recovered most of their losses yesterday as trading went on. Investors took some comfort after Chinese Vice Premier Liu said he remains scheduled to travel to the US this week.

"Markets appear to be holding on to hope that US-China trade negotiations will not be derailed, amid reports that this week's trade talks in Washington will still take place," said Han Tan, Market Analyst at FXTM.

Many have weighed whether the presidential tweet was just a negotiation tactic. Analysts at Bank of America believe that both parties at the table remain motivated to agree a deal.

Speaking to reporters on Monday, US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said China reneged on previous agreements over the weekend, undermining progress towards a detailed trade agreement between the world's two largest economies.

Lighthizer, the top US trade negotiator, said the administration would increase penalties on $200 billion of Chinese goods to 25% from 10% on Friday. Trump renewed his threat to raise tariffs on Sunday.

"That assumption is likely to be tested sooner rather than later, and the initial optimism that Trump's truculence was bluster was tempered somewhat by trade representative Robert Lighthizer's claims that China had backpedalled on certain elements on what had already been agreed," said Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC.

European stocks are broadly lower. Asian markets ended their day mixed, with the Shanghai Composite (SHCOMP) closing 0.7% higher, retracing some of its 5.6% drop on Monday, according to Refinitiv.

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https://www.cnn.com/2019/05/07/investing/global-selloff-whats-next/index.html

2019-05-07 13:57:00Z
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US-China tech battle is the overlooked issue in their trade war - CNBC

5G logo is seen on an android mobile phone with Huawei logo on the background.

Omar Marques | LightRocket | Getty Images

The U.S. and China want to be world leaders in technologies like 5G and artificial intelligence — and that could be a key hurdle in resolving trade frictions between the two, experts have told CNBC.

President Donald Trump on Sunday tweeted that the U.S. would raise tariffs on $200 billion in Chinese goods to 25% from the current 10% rate by Friday, and was planning to hit another $325 billion in imports with 25% duties "shortly."

Nevertheless, experts are still hopeful a trade agreement between the two sides will be reached. That's on the back of China confirming that Vice Premier Liu He and other officials will still visit Washington for another round of trade talks, despite reports that Beijing was considering backing out of the scheduled trip.

"A deal of some sort is still likely," William Hobbs, chief investment officer at Barclays Investment Solutions, told CNBC's "Squawk Box Europe " Tuesday. It may be the case that Trump — who once called himself a "Tariff Man" — felt emboldened to put pressure on China given recent positive U.S. economic indicators, Hobbs said.

But the big issue looking ahead, one analyst says, is the two countries' race toward new technologies. The battle to dominate 5G, for instance, has seen Huawei face intense political pressure from the U.S. amid fears its equipment could be used by the Chinese government for spying.

"Tariffs, trade, goods, this is only a sideshow," Geoffrey Yu, head of the U.K. investment office at UBS Wealth Management, said. "The big sign of U.S. contention is going to be on technology, on 5G and those issues. This is going to be a multi-decade process."

'Different era'

Tech could be the crucial issue to solve in finding a complete resolution to Washington and Beijing's dispute.

An end to so-called forced technology transfers, for instance, is a key part of Trump's demands — that is, the claim that U.S. companies are made to hand over their technological know-how in return for access to the Chinese market.

But beyond that, the world's two largest economies are in a fierce race to harness the potential of nascent technologies, including 5G, artificial intelligence and robotics, in a bid to be the world leader in those fields.

"I think we're now in a very different era, where both the Chinese and the Americans — and perhaps other parts of the West — are really trying to take advantage of new forms of technology," Edward Tse, CEO of Gao Feng Advisory, said.

"Everyone is trying to leverage on this new form of technology to come up with new ideas, new business models and new innovations. The race is very different now compared to perhaps a decade ago."

One area China might have an edge in, Tse noted, is in machine learning, because of the vast amounts of personal data companies in the country have access to. One reason for that is that the country has a different approach to major Western nations when it comes to things like data privacy.

Meanwhile, Trump has made it clear that he wants the U.S. to be a leader in 5G. The president has gone as far as to say that he wants 5G, "and even 6G, " to arrive in the U.S. "as soon as possible."

And then there's the so-called "splinternet " — the idea that the internet could be fragmented between different countries. China already has its Great Firewall, which blocks access to some foreign websites. But former Google CEO Eric Schmidt has warned there could be a "bifurcation" in the internet, with a China-led platform splitting apart from a U.S.-led one.

While the U.S. and China will still likely produce similar AI products, "in other forms of internet it may not be the same," Tse said. "Perhaps there will be different forms of technology coming up in other forms of the internet."

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2019-05-07 12:26:38Z
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