Sabtu, 08 Juni 2019

US-Mexico talks: Trump hails deal on migrants to avoid tariffs - BBC News

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President Donald Trump has hailed a deal reached with Mexico to help stem the flow of migrants to the US after he threatened to impose trade tariffs.

Under the deal, in which Mexico agreed to take "unprecedented steps", the duties that were due to come into effect on Monday have been suspended.

"Mexico will try very hard, and if they do that, this will be a very successful agreement," said Mr Trump.

There were fears that the tariffs could hurt US businesses and consumers.

Under Mr Trump's proposal, duties would have risen by 5% every month on goods including cars, beer, tequila, fruit and vegetables until they hit 25% in October.

The deal was reached at the end of three days of negotiations which saw Washington demand a crackdown on Central American migrants.

What do we know about the deal?

In a joint declaration released by the US state department, the two countries said Mexico would take "unprecedented steps" to curb irregular migration and human trafficking.

But it seems the US did not get one of its reported key demands, which would have required Mexico to take in asylum seekers heading for the US and process their claims on its own soil.

Under the deal, Mexico agreed to:

  • Deploy its National Guard throughout the country from Monday, pledging up to 6,000 additional troops along Mexico's southern border with Guatemala
  • Take "decisive action" to tackle human smuggling networks

The US agreed to:

  • Expand its programme of sending asylum seekers back to Mexico while they await reviews of their claims. In return, the US will "work to accelerate" the adjudication process

Both countries pledged to "strengthen bilateral co-operation" over border security, including "co-ordinated actions" and information sharing.

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The declaration added that discussions would continue, and final terms would be accepted and announced within 90 days.

Should Mexico's actions "not have the expected results", the agreement warned that additional measures could be taken but did not specify what these would be.

In one of a series of tweets about the deal, Mr Trump quoted National Border Patrol Council president Brandon Judd as saying: "That's going to be a huge deal because Mexico will be using their strong Immigration Laws - A game changer. People no longer will be released into the U.S."

Mexican Foreign Secretary Marcelo Ebrard told journalists: "I think it was a fair balance, because they have more drastic measures and proposals at the start, and we have reached some middle point."

Speaking at a separate news conference, US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said "we couldn't be more pleased with the agreement".

Mr Trump caught members of his own party unaware when he announced the proposed tariffs last week.

Trump tariff threat recedes - for now

By Will Grant, BBC Mexico and Central America correspondent

It's still unclear whether it was internal pressure within his party or the measures being offered by Mexico that dissuaded Mr Trump from implementing the plan, or perhaps simply an appreciation of its potential consequences.

It became apparent during the talks just how intertwined the two neighbouring economies are, and many argued that a 5% tax on all Mexican goods would hurt US suppliers and customers too. Furthermore, damaging the already fragile Mexican economy could have pushed it into a full recession and created more migrants heading north in search of work.

Still, some considered the bilateral meetings were useful, in part to recognise that both nations are facing a steep rise in undocumented immigration.

The plan to deploy military personnel to Mexico's southern border may well have helped bring this dispute to an end. However, President Trump has now tied immigration to bilateral trade and could easily do so again in the future should the situation fail to improve.

What is the reaction in Mexico?

Mexico is currently one of the largest trading partners of the US, just behind China and Canada - two countries also locked in trade disputes with the US.

President Andrés Manuel López Obrador ran for office vowing to stand up to the US and once said he would not allow Mexico to be Mr Trump's "whipping boy".

But some Mexican politicians felt he had given too much, too quickly, and they demanded to see details of the deal.

Ángel Ávila Romero, a senior member of the left-wing PRD party, said the agreement was "not a negotiation, it was a surrender".

"Mexico should not militarise its southern border. We are not the backyard of Donald Trump," he tweeted.

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Marko Cortés, leader of the conservative National Action Party (PAN), said the sovereignty and dignity of Mexico had been damaged, newspaper El Universal reported.

Mr López Obrador said on Twitter that a rally in the border city of Tijuana on Saturday to celebrate Mexican sovereignty would go ahead.

What's the situation on the US-Mexico border?

On Wednesday, US Customs and Border Protection said migrant detentions had surged in May to the highest level in more than a decade - 132,887 arrests, a 33% increase from April.

The detentions were the highest monthly total since Mr Trump took office.

Official figures show illegal border crossings had been in decline since 2000. In 2000, 1.6 million people were apprehended trying to cross the border illegally - that number was just under 400,000 in 2018.

In 2017, Mr Trump's first year in office, the figures were the lowest they had been since 1971. But the number of arrests has been rising again, especially in recent months.

In February, Mr Trump declared an emergency on the US-Mexico border, saying it was necessary in order to tackle what he claimed was a crisis.

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https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-48568389

2019-06-08 13:30:58Z
52780309231204

Russian journalist Ivan Golunov charged with attempted drug dealing - CNN

Ivan Golunov, a special correspondent for the independent news site Meduza, was charged in a Moscow court with attempted large-scale sale of drugs, Russian state news agency TASS reported, citing Pavel Chikov of the human-rights organization Agora, whose lawyers defend the journalist.
Meduza quoted Chikov on Saturday as saying that an ambulance doctor who examined Golunov in police custody said the journalist had concussion, bruising and possible broken ribs. Police refused to hospitalize the journalist, Meduza said.
Investigative journalist Ivan Golunov arrested in Russia on drug charges
If found guilty, Golunov could be jailed for 10 to 20 years, according to Reuters.
News of the 36-year-old's arrest has provoked outrage in Russia, and journalists have staged protests over what they have described as a trumped-up drugs charge.
Golunov was known for investigating official corruption, and critics have decried his arrest as an example of how easily criminal cases can be fabricated by Russian authorities.

Beaten in custody

Margarita Simonyan, the editor-in-chief of the Kremlin-funded RT network, criticized the arrest, saying: "The government must answer all the questions society has about this arrest. For the simple reason that society has very, very, very many of them."
Golunov's lawyer and colleagues have accused police of planting the drugs on the journalist and framing him, Reuters reported.
The Committee to Protect Journalists (CPJ) called for Golunov's release as well as investigate allegations that he had been beaten in police custody.
Staged 'murder' of Russian journalist comes at a heavy price
"Russian authorities should immediately drop their charges against Ivan Golunov, release him, and investigate allegations of mistreatment of the journalist in police custody," said Gulnoza Said, CPJ's Europe and Central Asia program coordinator.
Ivan Kolpakov, the editor-in-chief at Meduza, told the CPJ that the drug charges were "absurd," and that he had "no doubts that the charges are fabricated and are related to Golunov's journalism."
In a statement posted online on Friday, Kolpakov and Meduza CEO Galina Timchenko said Golunov had been beaten by police during detention. A police spokesman rejected those claims, according to TASS.
Meduza also cited Golunov's lawyer, Dmitry Dzhulai, as saying that the detained journalist had not been allowed to eat or sleep for more than a day.

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https://www.cnn.com/2019/06/08/europe/ivan-golunov-charged-drug-russia-intl/index.html

2019-06-08 12:46:00Z
52780310485522

Homophobic attack London bus: Lesbian couple speaking out as fifth suspect taken into custody - CBS News

Victim of homophobic bus attack speaks out

A fifth suspect is in custody in connection with a homophobic attack on a lesbian couple in London. Melania Geymonat, 28, and her partner, 29-year-old Chris, were travelling on a city bus where they were assaulted by a group of teens last month after they allegedly refused to kiss each other on demand.

In an interview with BBC News, Chris said won't be afraid to show affection in public moving forward. "I am not scared about being visibly queer. If anything, you should do it more. There are a lot of people's rights at risk and people's basic safety is at risk," she said.

"I want people to take away that they should stand up for themselves," she said.

screen-shot-2019-06-07-at-9-51-50-am.png
Melania Geymonat, and her date, Chris, said they were assaulted while on a late night bus by a group of young men. Melania Geymonat/Facebook

British Prime Minister Theresa May said the May 30 assault was "sickening," and London Mayor Sadiq Khan called it a "disgusting, misogynistic attack."

Trending News

Geymonat told BBC News she had previously experienced "a lot of verbal violence" but had never been physically attacked over her sexuality. "The violence is not only because we are women which are dating each other, it's also because we are women," she said.

Police in London have arrested five suspects, aged 15 to 18, on suspicion of robbery and an aggravated hate crime. Police said they were reviewing security footage of the attack. 

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https://www.cbsnews.com/news/homophobic-attack-london-bus-lesbian-couple-speaks-out-after-alleged-hate-crime-melania-geymonat-2019-06-08/

2019-06-08 12:32:00Z
52780310334519

Trump defends deal with Mexico to stem migrant flows, prevent tariffs - Fox News

President Trump on Saturday defended his agreement with Mexico that sees the country take tougher measures on illegal immigration in exchange for the U.S. dropping plans to impose tariffs on imports -- promising that Mexico “will try very hard” and place as many as 6,000 troops at their southern border.

“Mexico will try very hard, and if they do that, this will be a very successful agreement for both the United States and Mexico!” Trump tweeted.

BORDER ARRESTS SKYROCKET IN MAY, AS OFFICIALS DECLARE 'FULL-BLOWN EMERGENCY'

Trump announced late Friday that the U.S. had reached a deal with its southern neighbors that would see planned tariffs on Mexico stopped in return for Mexico taking further action to stop the flow of migrants from Central American to the U.S.-Mexico border.

According to a joint declaration issued by the State Department, Mexico will take “unprecedented steps to increase enforcement to curb irregular migration, to include the deployment of its National Guard throughout Mexico, giving priority to its southern border.”

The U.S. will also expand its policy of returning asylum applicants to Mexico while their claims are processed. The U.S. committed to accelerate asylum claims while Mexico said it will “offer jobs, healthcare and education according to its principles.”

The document said that Mexico will also take “decisive action” to dismantle smuggling and trafficking operations, while both countries will increase cooperation to protect the border.

Trump tweeted on Saturday that the deal includes Mexico sending 6,000 troops to its southern border, saying that currently "there are few!” In that tweet, he quoted Brandon Judd, president of the National Border Patrol Council, who praised the deal in glowing terms and called it a “huge deal” and a “game changer.”

Trump also said that the U.S. ally had agreed to buy “large quantities of agricultural product from our great patriot farmers.”

For now, the deal ends plans by the Trump administration to slap a 5 percent tariff on all goods coming into the U.S. from Mexico -- something that had sparked fears from both Democrats and Republicans in Congress about the possible economic fallout from such a move, with concerns it could kill off an incoming trade deal between the U.S., Mexico and Canada.

It also comes amid an escalating border crisis, with U.S. Customs and Border Protection reporting this week that it apprehended or encountered more than 144,000 migrants at the border in May -- levels not seen in over a decade. Trump has repeatedly expressed frustration at the crisis and has repeatedly blamed both Congress and Mexico for the migrant surges.

Democrats remained skeptical after the agreement was announced, with Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., tweeting (apparently sarcastically) that “[n]ow that that problem is solved, I’m sure we won’t be hearing any more about it in the future.”

2020 Democratic presidential hopeful Beto O’Rourke, meanwhile, said that “the damage of Trump's reckless trade policies and tariffs has already been done.”

CNN PANEL KNOCKS TRUMP'S MEXICO DEAL, SUGGESTS IT'S A DISTRACTION FROM WEAK US JOB NUMBERS

“What we see is yet another example of him trying to be both the arsonist who created this problem in the first place and the firefighter who wants credit for addressing it,” he said.

Republicans responded with relief, and with praise for the president.

CLICK HERE TO GET THE FOX NEWS APP

“I fully supported President Trump’s strategy of using tariffs to get Mexico to secure its border and stop the flow of illegal immigration to the United States,” Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., said in a statement. President Trump proved he wasn’t bluffing, and his bold leadership just resulted in a huge win for America’s safety and security.”

Trump was apparently monitoring media reaction to the agreement, and while he said that the reporting was “very good,” he criticized what he described as false reporting from other outlets: “These ‘Fakers are Bad News!”

Fox News Mike Emanuel contributed to this report.

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https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-defends-mexico-deal-migrant-flows-tariffs

2019-06-08 12:54:28Z
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Trump says U.S. and Mexico reach last-minute deal to avoid tariffs - CBS News

President Trump tweeted late Friday that a deal had been signed with Mexico to avoid tariffs that were set to start Monday. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo more formally announced the agreement shortly thereafter. 

The announcement avoids what economists and Republicans feared would be damaging to the U.S. economy. According to Mexico's foreign minister, the agreement calls for Mexico to deploy its national guard throughout the country, as well as allow migrants to wait in Mexico while their asylum claims are adjudicated. The agreement also calls for Mexico to offer jobs, health care and education. 

"I am pleased to inform you that The United States of America has reached a signed agreement with Mexico," the president tweeted Friday night. "The Tariffs scheduled to be implemented by the U.S. on Monday, against Mexico, are hereby indefinitely suspended. Mexico, in turn, has agreed to take strong measures to...stem the tide of Migration through Mexico, and to our Southern Border. This is being done to greatly reduce, or eliminate, Illegal Immigration coming from Mexico and into the United States. Details of the agreement will be released shortly by the State Department. Thank you!"

Pompeo followed the president's tweet with a statement. 

"We would like to thank Mexican Foreign Minister Marcelo Ebrard for his hard work to negotiate a set of joint obligations that benefit both the United States and Mexico," Pompeo said. "The United States looks forward to working alongside Mexico to fulfill these commitments so that we can stem the tide of illegal migration across our southern border and to make our border strong and secure."

The agreement leaves open the possibility that the deal could be altered if progress is not considered sufficient. "Both parties also agree that, in the event the measures adopted do not have the expected results, they will take further actions," the agreement says.

Under the agreement, the U.S. will also "immediately" expand its Migrant Protection Protocols, also known as the remain-in-Mexico policy, which was started at the end of January. Individuals who are trying to come to the U.S. to seek asylum are to be returned to Mexico to wait for their asylum claims to be heard in court. Mexico says that it will offer jobs, healthcare and education to the asylum-seekers.

Mexico's Foreign Minister Ebrard speaks to reporters after U.S.-Mexico talks at State Department in Washington
Mexico's Foreign Minister Marcelo Ebrard speaks to reporters after a meeting between U.S. and Mexican officials on immigration and trade at the State Department in Washington on June 6, 2019. LEAH MILLIS / REUTERS

In a series of tweets Saturday morning, Mr. Trump continued to defend his last-minute decision not to implement tariffs, blaming the media for perceived negative reporting.

"While the reviews and reporting on our Border Immigration Agreement with Mexico have been very good, there has nevertheless been much false reporting (surprise!) by the Fake and Corrupt News Media, such as Comcast/NBC, CNN, @nytimes & @washingtonpost. These "Fakers" are Bad News!" Mr. Trump claimed without evidence.

He also wrote, in all capitalization, that "MEXICO HAS AGREED TO IMMEDIATELY BEGIN BUYING LARGE QUANTITIES OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCT FROM OUR GREAT PATRIOT FARMERS!"

Mr. Trump had faced some strong criticism from Republicans who represent states with large farming populations, such as Sens. Chuck Grassley and Joni Ernst of Iowa. Ernst said in a statement Friday night that "Iowans are breathing a sigh of relief" now that the tariffs were not going into effect. It was unclear whether there were enough votes to block the tariffs from going into effect in Congress.

A tariff deal also had not seemed certain. The White House did not publicly identify what targets Mexico needed to meet, and said Mexico wasn't offering enough to curb illegal immigration. Top White House officials had insisted the tariffs were imminent if Mexico didn't drastically crack down on the flow of migrants. 

Mr. Trump appeared to muddy the waters even more Friday afternoon while tweeting from Air Force One that Mexico would buy more agricultural products from the U.S. — even though the White House insisted the proposed tariffs were about immigration, not trade. 

"If we are able to make the deal with Mexico, & there is a good chance that we will, they will begin purchasing Farm & Agricultural products at very high levels, starting immediately," Mr. Trump tweeted. "If we are unable to make the deal, Mexico will begin paying Tariffs at the 5% level on Monday!"

For months, Mr. Trump has vocalized his frustration over illegal immigration levels and sought ways to stem the tide of migrants, as he attempts to keep his campaign promise to build a border wall and handle illegal immigration more effectively than his predecessors. But those attempts have been fraught with hurdles, both legal and political, with the 2020 presidential election just around the corner.

On Friday night, Senate Minority leader Chuck Schumer mockingly tweeted it was a "historic night" and "Now that that problem is solved, I'm sure we won't be hearing any more about it in the future."

In December, Mr. Trump's insistence on border wall funding led to the longest government shutdown on record, but the president ultimately gave in when the impacts of the shutdown became visible. 

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https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-tariff-mexico-president-says-cancels-plan-after-deal-reached-on-immigration-today-2019-06-08/

2019-06-08 12:11:00Z
52780309231204

Trump is playing a risky game by weaponizing US economic power with tariffs - CNBC

The effectiveness of President Donald Trump's unprecedented weaponization of tariffs in addressing non-trade issues is facing its most significant tests yet in Mexico and China.

In the case of Mexico, he had threatened new 5% tariffs on Mexican goods – which were to be imposed as early as Monday. The aim was to force the Mexican government to stem the flood of undocumented migrants across U.S. borders.

The United States and Mexico reached a deal Friday night in which Trump dropped the tariff threat in return for Mexico's commitment to increased immigration enforcement.

In the case of China, Beijing officials have grown convinced that the Trump administration's aim is – at the very least – to alter the way the autocratic capitalist regime does business. At the very most, they believe Trump officials would like to slow or stop China's rise and perhaps change the regime itself.

A draft trade agreement, which U.S. officials say the Chinese initially accepted before rejecting, appears to have included a Chinese commitment to change its laws to rein in illegal tech transfers, intellectual property theft and anti-competitive state subsidies.

No one disputes, least of all Mexican officials themselves, that Mexico should do more to help the United States address the migrant problem. Last month, U.S. officials apprehended or refused entry to more than 144,000 people who crossed the southern border illegally, the most in a single month in some five years. That number has grown consistently since January, fueled by the fear of even tougher restrictions to come and a desire to get in the door before it shuts.

Top Mexican officials flew to Washington this past week on an emergency mission to broker a deal to head off he tariffs. Ahead of the weekend, Mexican Foreign Minister Marcelo Ebard confirmed reports that Mexico would send 6,000 of its national guard troops to its southern border – the sort of physical showing designed to appeal to Trump. Mexico also has offered changes, U.S. officials have said, to its asylum rules that would require Central American migrants to seek asylum in the first foreign country they enter – namely Mexico

No one disputes either how positive it would be if Trump could coax the Chinese to mend their unfair trading ways, an effort that has broad global support and bipartisan political support at home. Yet Chinese officials say they drew the line, and they unusually leaked details of the talks to support their argument, when the U.S. side went beyond economic goals toward demands that Beijing rewrite its laws to alter its state-controlled system.

However commendable even the Trump administration's most ardent supporters might find the president's goals in Mexico and China, the unfortunate truth is that tariffs are insufficient at best and counterproductive at worst in achieving non-trade outcomes.

Ultimately, Mexico achieved a stand-down from the higher tariffs . The deal, however, won't address the underlying problem.

The Atlantic Council's Tony Wayne, a former U.S. ambassador to Mexico, argued this week: "Central American governments' inability to provide for the basic needs and safety of many of their citizens, fueling the migration, has deep-rooted causes that will take years to solve."

The U.S. recently cut aid to Central America, despite its growing needs, inadvertently fueling even more incentive to migrate. And though Mexico and the United States have agreed in principle to promoting economic development in southern Mexico and Central America, they haven't delivered anything concrete.

Whatever Mexican officials may promise the Trump administration, it's unclear they would have the capacity to deliver. "Mexico's immigration and refugee agencies are severely understaffed, under-resourced and overwhelmed by the increased numbers of Central Americans heading north," Wayne said.

The difficulty is even greater in addressing the multi-dimensional China challenge through escalating tariffs, even when one adds to that other economic tools such as the recent ban on Huawei selling its 5G products in the United States.

The combination of the tough line U.S. officials took in trade talks and the escalating confrontation over Huawei has prompted a more nationalist and assertive response by the Chinese government, reflected in President Xi Jinping's visit to Russia this week to meet with Vladimir Putin, previewed last week in this space.

Xi and Putin left little doubt that their growing closeness is in no small part motivated as a coalition against the United States. It was also telling that among the 30 deals and agreements signed by the two leaders was an accord for Huawei to develop a 5G network in Russia together with Russia's MTS telecoms company.

There's little doubt the U.S. moves against Beijing will slow Chinese growth and complicate Huawei's ability to expand its impressive hold on global telecom and emerging 5G markets.

Yet tariffs and tech sanctions can achieve little of lasting value without an accompanying set of talks and how the two powers together can manage the global future with a set of agreed rules that will allow them to be both strategic collaborators and competitors.

Trump's tariff struggles with Mexico and China are only part of what the Economist on its cover this weekend called in a blazing headline, "Weapons of Mass Disruption," printed beside a compelling illustration of a bomb tipped with Trump's face heading earthward with these words stenciled on its side: "TARIFFS, TECH BLACKLISTS, FINANCIAL ISOLATION, SANCTIONS."

Though tariffs on Mexico and China lead the news now, the U.S. this week also cancelled preferential trading rules for India, it continues to use sanctions in efforts to tame and punish Iran and Russia, it wields them in its effort to denuclearize North Korea and it deploys sanctions, working alongside some 50 other democracies, to replace Venezuela's dictator with democracy.

U.S. economic weapons are the most potent in the world, and 88% of world trade is still done in dollars, although the U.S. share of global GDP has shrunk from nearly half after World War II to 38% in 1969 to about 24% now. That remains the case because for many years a good part of the world viewed this arrangement positively.

It remains to be seen – in Mexico, China and beyond – how much Trump will gain through his unique willingness to use economic weapons.

What's clear already is that friends and rivals are more interested than ever before in exploring alternatives to the U.S.-dominated system. Such a transition would take many years, involve enormous costs and unfold in stages. However, consistent overuse of U.S. economic power has made the unthinkable more plausible.

Frederick Kempe is a best-selling author, prize-winning journalist and president & CEO of the Atlantic Council, one of the United States' most influential think tanks on global affairs. He worked at The Wall Street Journal for more than 25 years as a foreign correspondent, assistant managing editor and as the longest-serving editor of the paper's European edition. His latest book – "Berlin 1961: Kennedy, Khrushchev, and the Most Dangerous Place on Earth" – was a New York Times best-seller and has been published in more than a dozen languages. Follow him on Twitter and subscribe here to Inflection Points, his look each Saturday at the past week's top stories and trends.

For more insight from CNBC contributors, follow @CNBCopinion on Twitter.

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https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/07/trump-plays-risky-game-by-weaponizing-tariffs.html

2019-06-08 11:01:22Z
52780309231204

Trump is playing a risky game by weaponizing US economic power with tariffs - CNBC

The effectiveness of President Donald Trump's unprecedented weaponization of tariffs in addressing non-trade issues is facing its most significant tests yet in Mexico and China.

In the case of Mexico, he had threatened new 5% tariffs on Mexican goods – which were to be imposed as early as Monday. The aim was to force the Mexican government to stem the flood of undocumented migrants across U.S. borders.

The United States and Mexico reached a deal Friday night in which Trump dropped the tariff threat in return for Mexico's commitment to increased immigration enforcement.

In the case of China, Beijing officials have grown convinced that the Trump administration's aim is – at the very least – to alter the way the autocratic capitalist regime does business. At the very most, they believe Trump officials would like to slow or stop China's rise and perhaps change the regime itself.

A draft trade agreement, which U.S. officials say the Chinese initially accepted before rejecting, appears to have included a Chinese commitment to change its laws to rein in illegal tech transfers, intellectual property theft and anti-competitive state subsidies.

No one disputes, least of all Mexican officials themselves, that Mexico should do more to help the United States address the migrant problem. Last month, U.S. officials apprehended or refused entry to more than 144,000 people who crossed the southern border illegally, the most in a single month in some five years. That number has grown consistently since January, fueled by the fear of even tougher restrictions to come and a desire to get in the door before it shuts.

Top Mexican officials flew to Washington this past week on an emergency mission to broker a deal to head off he tariffs. Ahead of the weekend, Mexican Foreign Minister Marcelo Ebard confirmed reports that Mexico would send 6,000 of its national guard troops to its southern border – the sort of physical showing designed to appeal to Trump. Mexico also has offered changes, U.S. officials have said, to its asylum rules that would require Central American migrants to seek asylum in the first foreign country they enter – namely Mexico

No one disputes either how positive it would be if Trump could coax the Chinese to mend their unfair trading ways, an effort that has broad global support and bipartisan political support at home. Yet Chinese officials say they drew the line, and they unusually leaked details of the talks to support their argument, when the U.S. side went beyond economic goals toward demands that Beijing rewrite its laws to alter its state-controlled system.

However commendable even the Trump administration's most ardent supporters might find the president's goals in Mexico and China, the unfortunate truth is that tariffs are insufficient at best and counterproductive at worst in achieving non-trade outcomes.

Ultimately, Mexico achieved a stand-down from the higher tariffs . The deal, however, won't address the underlying problem.

The Atlantic Council's Tony Wayne, a former U.S. ambassador to Mexico, argued this week: "Central American governments' inability to provide for the basic needs and safety of many of their citizens, fueling the migration, has deep-rooted causes that will take years to solve."

The U.S. recently cut aid to Central America, despite its growing needs, inadvertently fueling even more incentive to migrate. And though Mexico and the United States have agreed in principle to promoting economic development in southern Mexico and Central America, they haven't delivered anything concrete.

Whatever Mexican officials may promise the Trump administration, it's unclear they would have the capacity to deliver. "Mexico's immigration and refugee agencies are severely understaffed, under-resourced and overwhelmed by the increased numbers of Central Americans heading north," Wayne said.

The difficulty is even greater in addressing the multi-dimensional China challenge through escalating tariffs, even when one adds to that other economic tools such as the recent ban on Huawei selling its 5G products in the United States.

The combination of the tough line U.S. officials took in trade talks and the escalating confrontation over Huawei has prompted a more nationalist and assertive response by the Chinese government, reflected in President Xi Jinping's visit to Russia this week to meet with Vladimir Putin, previewed last week in this space.

Xi and Putin left little doubt that their growing closeness is in no small part motivated as a coalition against the United States. It was also telling that among the 30 deals and agreements signed by the two leaders was an accord for Huawei to develop a 5G network in Russia together with Russia's MTS telecoms company.

There's little doubt the U.S. moves against Beijing will slow Chinese growth and complicate Huawei's ability to expand its impressive hold on global telecom and emerging 5G markets.

Yet tariffs and tech sanctions can achieve little of lasting value without an accompanying set of talks and how the two powers together can manage the global future with a set of agreed rules that will allow them to be both strategic collaborators and competitors.

Trump's tariff struggles with Mexico and China are only part of what the Economist on its cover this weekend called in a blazing headline, "Weapons of Mass Disruption," printed beside a compelling illustration of a bomb tipped with Trump's face heading earthward with these words stenciled on its side: "TARIFFS, TECH BLACKLISTS, FINANCIAL ISOLATION, SANCTIONS."

Though tariffs on Mexico and China lead the news now, the U.S. this week also cancelled preferential trading rules for India, it continues to use sanctions in efforts to tame and punish Iran and Russia, it wields them in its effort to denuclearize North Korea and it deploys sanctions, working alongside some 50 other democracies, to replace Venezuela's dictator with democracy.

U.S. economic weapons are the most potent in the world, and 88% of world trade is still done in dollars, although the U.S. share of global GDP has shrunk from nearly half after World War II to 38% in 1969 to about 24% now. That remains the case because for many years a good part of the world viewed this arrangement positively.

It remains to be seen – in Mexico, China and beyond – how much Trump will gain through his unique willingness to use economic weapons.

What's clear already is that friends and rivals are more interested than ever before in exploring alternatives to the U.S.-dominated system. Such a transition would take many years, involve enormous costs and unfold in stages. However, consistent overuse of U.S. economic power has made the unthinkable more plausible.

Frederick Kempe is a best-selling author, prize-winning journalist and president & CEO of the Atlantic Council, one of the United States' most influential think tanks on global affairs. He worked at The Wall Street Journal for more than 25 years as a foreign correspondent, assistant managing editor and as the longest-serving editor of the paper's European edition. His latest book – "Berlin 1961: Kennedy, Khrushchev, and the Most Dangerous Place on Earth" – was a New York Times best-seller and has been published in more than a dozen languages. Follow him on Twitter and subscribe here to Inflection Points, his look each Saturday at the past week's top stories and trends.

For more insight from CNBC contributors, follow @CNBCopinion on Twitter.

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https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/07/trump-plays-risky-game-by-weaponizing-tariffs.html

2019-06-08 11:01:18Z
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