Kamis, 18 Juli 2019

No-deal Brexit could cause £30bn economic hit, watchdog says - BBC News

Public borrowing could double next year if there is a no-deal Brexit, the country's spending watchdog says.

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) said borrowing would be almost £60bn if the UK leaves without a deal - up from £29.3bn if it does get a deal.

The watchdog said this scenario was based on assumptions that a no-deal Brexit would cause a UK recession.

The UK is set to leave the European Union on 31 October.

Chances of a no-deal outcome appear to have risen recently, after both Tory leadership contenders said they would be willing to leave the EU without a deal.

The OBR was created in 2010 to give independent analysis of the UK's public finances.

In its first assessment of the economic impact of a no-deal scenario, the OBR used IMF analysis that shows the UK economy would contract by 2% in 2020 before recovering in 2021.

This would come as tariffs of 4% were imposed on goods traded with the EU - up from zero currently - although the IMF does not expect there to be disruption at the border.

In this scenario, the OBR said that "heightened uncertainty and declining confidence" would deter investment, while higher trade barriers with the EU would "weigh on exports".

"Together, these push the economy into recession, with asset prices and the pound falling sharply," it said.

It said this could push up public sector borrowing, leaving debt 12% higher by 2024.

The OBR added this was "not necessarily the most likely outcome" but also "by no means the worst case scenario".

It also warned that both Conservative leadership contenders had made "a series of uncosted proposals for tax cuts and spending increases that would be likely to increase government borrowing by tens of billions of pounds if implemented".

Analysis:

By Faisal Islam, BBC economics editor

The government's official independent budgetary watchdog has for the first time put a price on the impact to the public finances of leaving the European Union without a deal.

The numbers come at a sensitive time politically when both likely future Prime Ministers suggest that a no-deal Brexit is possible this year.

The OBR is legally obliged to consider all threats to the public finances, and today's new numbers come as part of its biannual Fiscal Risks report.

The fall in tax revenue is forecast to significantly outweigh any benefit from no longer paying the UK's subscription fee as a member of the EU.

The numbers show a deep crisis-like impact on the public finances, and are based on the IMF's projections for the economy.

But they go further, showing a long-run hit to the economy.

Media playback is unsupported on your device

The forecast used by the OBR is less severe than those of the Bank of England and the Treasury.

In November, the Bank said a no-deal outcome could send the pound plunging and trigger a worse recession than the 2008 financial crisis.

The economy could shrink by 8% in the immediate aftermath if there was no transition period, the Bank said.

The Treasury meanwhile has predicted a £90bn hit to the economy by 2035 - although prominent eurosceptics dispute this view.

In a comment piece for the Telegraph newspaper earlier this week, Conservative backbencher Jacob Rees-Mogg called the forecast "silliness", adding that a no-deal scenario could instead boost the economy by £80bn.

On Thursday, Mr Hammond said: "The report that the OBR has published shows that even in the most benign version of a no-deal exit, there would be a very significant hit to the UK economy.

"But that most benign version is not the version that is being talked about by prominent Brexiteers. They are talking about a much harder version that would cause much more disruption."

John McDonnell, Labour's shadow chancellor, said: "We know that a no-deal Brexit would devastate the UK economy and the public finances, and it comes on top of the failed economic approach for the last nine years.

"This warning makes it even more imperative MPs from across Parliament back today's amendments to try and block the next prime minister from shutting down Parliament to force through a no-deal Brexit."

Chuka Umunna, the Liberal Democrat business and treasury spokesman, said: "It would be unforgiveable to heap further stress and anxiety on families who are already struggling by deliberately pursuing a policy that the government's own independent economic watchdog now says will result in a recession."

The chances of a no-deal appear to have risen in recent weeks after both candidates in the race to replace Theresa May hardened their positions on the controversial Irish backstop - an insurance policy to prevent a hard border on the island of Ireland after Brexit.

Jeremy Hunt and Boris Johnson both said the backstop was "dead", but the EU said it would not support any deal that excludes it.

In an interview with the BBC's Panorama programme - conducted in May before the start of the Conservative leadership contest - the EU's chief Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier, said the UK would have to "face the consequences" if it opted to leave without a deal.

Mr Barnier said the thrice-rejected withdrawal agreement negotiated by Theresa May was the "only way to leave the EU in an orderly manner".

Let's block ads! (Why?)


https://www.bbc.com/news/business-49027889

2019-07-18 13:01:32Z
52780335165524

Iran seizes foreign oil tanker with 12 crew, state media says - CNN

The semi-official Fars news agency said Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) forces ambushed the tanker, carrying 12 people on board, on Sunday.
Citing an IRGC statement, Fars reported that the ship -- which has a capacity of 2 million liters -- is a foreign tanker and was seized in an area south of Larak, a small island in the Strait of Hormuz.
Fars added that the ship was carrying fuel smuggled to it on Iranian dhows, or small boats.
The IRGC have denied seizing any other tankers, Fars said.
It is unclear whether the tanker seized Sunday was the same vessel as one that Iran claimed to have assisted earlier this week.
This story has been updated with new reporting from Iranian state media about the amount of oil on board the vessel.

Let's block ads! (Why?)


https://www.cnn.com/2019/07/18/middleeast/iran-tanker-intl/index.html

2019-07-18 12:53:00Z
52780335200831

Fire At Kyoto Animation, Thirty-Three Confirmed Dead And Suspected Arsonist In Police Custody [Update] - Kotaku

Kyoto Animation, one of Japan’s most popular anime studios, was reportedly set ablaze this morning in Japan. A man in his 40s was allegedly seen pouring a flammable liquid and setting it ablaze. He is currently in police custody.

At around 10 am, residents living near the studio called the police, saying there was the sound of an explosion and that smoke was emitting from the building, which is located in Kyoto’s Fushimi area.

Update: July 18 - 12:46 am: According to Japanese TV news, there are still people trapped in the studio and there are twenty people who are still unaccounted for.  

Update 2: July 18 - 12:59 am: One witness said the suspect was screaming “die” as he lit the fire.

Advertisement

Update 3: July 18 - 3:08 am: The Japanese media is now reporting that seven people are confirmed dead.

Update 4: July 18 - 3:30 am: An announcement scheduled tomorrow for Kyoto Animation’s new Free! movie has been canceled. [Eds Note: This update originally stated the movie had been canceled. It has not. We regret the error.]

Advertisement

Update 5: July 18 - 4:36 am: Sixteen people are now confirmed dead, the Japanese TV media reports.

Update 6: July 18 - 5:18 am: Kyoto Animation CEO Hideaki Hatta told reporters that for the past few years death threats have often been sent to the company.

Advertisement

Update 7: July 18 - 6:09 am: Fans have posting messages, expressing sorrow and offering condolences using a #prayforkyoani hashtag on Twitter.

Update 8: July 18 - 7:09 am: Twenty-five people have been confirmed dead.

Update 9: July 18 - 8:26 am: Thirty-three people have been confirmed dead.

[The original story continues below]

The building is Kyoto Animation’s No. 1 Studio, NHK reports. The studio’s head office is in Uji City, Kyoto, which is about twenty minutes away by car.

Sankei News reports that 38 employees have been taken to the hospital for major and minor injuries. ANN adds that nine people are unconscious. According to Kyoto Shimbun, one person is reported dead.

Advertisement

Kyoto Animation is perhaps best known for anime like The Melancholy of Haruhi Suzumiya, Lucky Star, K-On! and more recently, Miss Kobayashi’s Dragon Maid and Free!, among many others.

Let's block ads! (Why?)


https://kotaku.com/fire-at-kyoto-animation-sixteen-confirmed-dead-and-sus-1836473998

2019-07-18 12:15:00Z
52780334975248

Iran seizes foreign oil tanker with 12 crew, state media says - CNN

The semi-official Fars news agency said Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) forces ambushed the tanker, carrying 12 people on board, on Sunday.
The IRGC have denied seizing any other tankers, Fars said.
It is unclear whether the tanker seized Sunday was the same vessel as one that Iran claimed to have assisted earlier this week.
This story has been updated with new reporting from Iranian state media about the amount of oil on board the vessel.

Let's block ads! (Why?)


https://www.cnn.com/2019/07/18/middleeast/iran-tanker-intl/index.html

2019-07-18 11:52:00Z
52780335200831

Iran seizes foreign oil tanker with 12 crew, state media says - CNN

The semi-official Fars news agency said Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) forces ambushed the tanker, carrying 12 people on board, on Sunday.
The IRGC have denied seizing any other tankers, Fars said.
It is unclear whether the tanker seized Sunday was the same vessel as one that Iran claimed to have assisted earlier this week.
This story has been updated with new reporting from Iranian state media about the amount of oil on board the vessel.

Let's block ads! (Why?)


https://www.cnn.com/2019/07/18/middleeast/iran-tanker-intl/index.html

2019-07-18 11:07:00Z
52780335200831

Fire At Kyoto Animation, Twenty-Five Confirmed Dead And Suspected Arsonist In Police Custody [Update] - Kotaku

Kyoto Animation, one of Japan’s most popular anime studios, was reportedly set ablaze this morning in Japan. A man in his 40s was allegedly seen pouring a flammable liquid and setting it ablaze. He is currently in police custody.

At around 10 am, residents living near the studio called the police, saying there was the sound of an explosion and that smoke was emitting from the building, which is located in Kyoto’s Fushimi area.

Update: July 18 - 12:46 am: According to Japanese TV news, there are still people trapped in the studio and there are twenty people who are still unaccounted for.  

Update 2: July 18 - 12:59 am: One witness said the suspect was screaming “die” as he lit the fire.

Advertisement

Update 3: July 18 - 3:08 am: The Japanese media is now reporting that seven people are confirmed dead.

Update 4: July 18 - 3:30 am: An announcement scheduled tomorrow for Kyoto Animation’s new Free! movie has been canceled. [Eds Note: This update originally stated the movie had been canceled. It has not. We regret the error.]

Advertisement

Update 5: July 18 - 4:36 am: Sixteen people are now confirmed dead, the Japanese TV media reports.

Update 6: July 18 - 5:18 am: Kyoto Animation CEO Hideaki Hatta told reporters that for the past few years death threats have often been sent to the company.

Advertisement

Update 7: July 18 - 6:09 am: Fans have posting messages, expressing sorrow and offering condolences using a #prayforkyoani hashtag on Twitter.

Update 8: July 18 - 7:09 am: Twenty-five people have been confirmed dead.

[The original story continues below]

The building is Kyoto Animation’s No. 1 Studio, NHK reports. The studio’s head office is in Uji City, Kyoto, which is about twenty minutes away by car.

Sankei News reports that 38 employees have been taken to the hospital for major and minor injuries. ANN adds that nine people are unconscious. According to Kyoto Shimbun, one person is reported dead.

Advertisement

Kyoto Animation is perhaps best known for anime like The Melancholy of Haruhi Suzumiya, Lucky Star, K-On! and more recently, Miss Kobayashi’s Dragon Maid and Free!, among many others.

Let's block ads! (Why?)


https://kotaku.com/fire-at-kyoto-animation-sixteen-confirmed-dead-and-sus-1836473998

2019-07-18 11:00:00Z
CAIiEO7-_J5QljASr_yJunPw_7EqFQgEKg0IACoGCAow9YACMKFMMLOpHg

Fire At Kyoto Animation, Sixteen Confirmed Dead And Suspected Arsonist In Police Custody [Update] - Kotaku

Kyoto Animation, one of Japan’s most popular anime studios, was reportedly set ablaze this morning in Japan. A man in his 40s was allegedly seen pouring a flammable liquid and setting it ablaze. He is currently in police custody.

At around 10 am, residents living near the studio called the police, saying there was the sound of an explosion and that smoke was emitting from the building, which is located in Kyoto’s Fushimi area.

Update: July 18 - 12:46 am: According to Japanese TV news, there are still people trapped in the studio and there are twenty people who are still unaccounted for.  

Update 2: July 18 - 12:59 am: One witness said the suspect was screaming “die” as he lit the fire.

Advertisement

Update 3: July 18 - 3:08 am: The Japanese media is now reporting that seven people are confirmed dead.

Update 4: July 18 - 3:30 am: An announcement scheduled tomorrow for Kyoto Animation’s new Free! movie has been canceled. [Eds Note: This update originally stated the movie had been canceled. It has not. We regret the error.]

Advertisement

Update 5: July 18 - 4:36 am: Sixteen people are now confirmed dead, the Japanese TV media reports.

Update 6: July 18 - 5:18 am: Kyoto Animation CEO Hideaki Hatta told reporters that for the past few years death threats have often been sent to the company.

Advertisement

[The original story continues below]

The building is Kyoto Animation’s No. 1 Studio, NHK reports. The studio’s head office is in Uji City, Kyoto, which is about twenty minutes away by car.

Sankei News reports that 38 employees have been taken to the hospital for major and minor injuries. ANN adds that nine people are unconscious. According to Kyoto Shimbun, one person is reported dead.

Advertisement

Kyoto Animation is perhaps best known for anime like The Melancholy of Haruhi Suzumiya, Lucky Star, K-Oh and more recently, Miss Kobayashi’s Dragon Maid and Free!, among many others.

Let's block ads! (Why?)


https://kotaku.com/fire-at-kyoto-animation-sixteen-confirmed-dead-and-sus-1836473998

2019-07-18 09:20:00Z
52780334975248