US is out of the picture in Syria-Turkey crisis. Putin now owns this mess - CNN

Only a few hours later, airstrikes and artillery fire could be felt in northern Syria as the Kurdish-dominated Syrian Democratic Forces accused Ankara and its proxies of severe ceasefire violations.

The mood both in Washington and in the Middle East is that the ceasefire is not the real deal. It expires on Tuesday, October 22, the same day Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Turkish counterpart Recip Tayyip Erdogan will meet in Sochi to discuss the future of Syria. It seems pretty clear: that's when the world will find out that the real deal will be for the future of this volatile region.

Putin's leadership role

It's also clear that the future will, to a large extent, be determined by the Russian President. With Trump's abandonment of the Kurds, America's main allies in the fight against ISIS, and his de facto green lighting of Turkey's invasion of northern Syria, the White House maneuvered itself out of the Syria equation. For better or worse, Putin now owns the military and political mess unfolding there.

But unlike the Trump administration's hectic efforts at last-minute diplomacy to try to end the bloodshed it helped unleash, Putin at least seemed like a man with a plan.

Russia immediately started negotiations with the Kurds and Moscow's main ally, the Assad government, quickly reaching a deal to allow the Syrian military into Kurdish-held areas where Damascus has not had a presence for years in order to stave off the Turkish-led offensive. Moscow also quickly deployed its own military as a buffer to keep the Turks and their forces apart from the Kurds and Syrian government troops.

The move caused a good deal of chest thumping among Putin's military: "When the Russian flag appears, combat stops -- neither Turks nor Kurds want to harm us, so fighting stops thanks to our work," a Russian army officer, Safar Safarov, was quoted as saying by Tass state news agency, as the country's military police units began patrolling Manbij.

Russia's high-risk game

With Russia's new role as the undisputed lead nation also come grave risks. The situation in northeastern Syria is more than volatile. The Turks have made clear they will not allow a Kurdish military presence near their border. But Ankara's ground force consists largely of Syrian rebel groups, many of them hardline Islamists whom the Kurds fear could unleash a campaign of ethnic cleansing against minorities in this diverse region.

To add to all this, Syrian government forces and the rebels allied with Ankara also have an ax to grind with one another after all the atrocities committed during the devastating eight-year civil war.

Moscow seems to understand the dangerous situation it has been propelled into with its new leadership role.

"We tried to draw attention for many years to the explosive policies of the USA and the coalition, headed for the collapse of Syria and the creation of quasi-state formations on the eastern bank of the Euphrates, pushing Kurds to separatism and confrontation with Arab tribes," Russia's foreign minister Sergey Lavrov said Wednesday as he addressed heads of security services.

The Kremlin is gravely concerned that Russians who fought with ISIS and other rebels groups could return to their homeland and cause instability there. From the moment Turkey launched its offensive in Northern Syria the Kremlin voiced extreme doubts about Turkey's ability to keep a lid on the thousands of ISIS prisoners and their relatives that the Kurds had been guarding.

"There are areas in northern Syria where ISIS militants are concentrated and until recently, they were guarded by the Kurdish military. The Turkish army entered these areas and the Kurds left... Now [ISIS fighters] can simply run away and I am not sure that the Turkish army can -- and how fast -- get this under control," Putin said last week at The Commonwealth of Independent States forum in Ashgabat.

Russia faced a sustained insurgency in Chechnya in the 1990s and prosecuted a bloody war there for several years. The last thing Vladimir Putin wants is for former Russian ISIS members to go back to the Caucasus region, possibly leading to the return of instability. At that same forum in Turkmenistan, Putin warned other leaders of the region to brace for the situation. "We are talking about hundreds of militants there, thousands when it comes to CIS countries. This is a real threat to us. How and where will they head?" Putin said.

"We need to understand this and mobilize the resources of our special services to cut short this emerging new threat," Putin added.

All Syrian roads lead to Moscow

But despite all the dangers facing Putin's high-stakes Syria gambit the Russian leader still seems to be in a position to possibly prevent the situation from blowing up even more than it already has.

Russia has a devastating track record in the Syrian conflict. Human rights groups have accused Moscow of committing war crimes in its campaign to support Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. The US says Moscow has systematically bombed civilian infrastructure, especially hospitals, and aided Assad in covering up alleged chemical weapons use by the Syrian military. Russian vehemently denies all these allegations.

And despite many US and European officials lamenting Moscow's alleged lies and deception, pretty much all the countries and parties involved in the Syrian crisis seem to agree that Moscow is more reliable than Washington in this crisis.

NATO ally Turkey has been working with the Russians for years, despite the fact they back opposing factions in the Syrian civil war. Even arch-enemies Israel and Iran seem to agree that the road to making sure their interests are met runs through Moscow.

And when the Kurdish-dominated Syrian Democratic Forces -- which were backed by the US and lost nearly 11,000 fighters in the war against ISIS -- found out they'd been dumped by Trump and left to be invaded by Erdogan's proxy force, they too went straight to the Russians because guess what: Moscow has been working with and talking to the SDF for years as well.

So it was never going to be the Trump White House that could try and broker a solution to the messy situation in northeastern Syria. If there will be deal it will be reached next Tuesday in Sochi by Putin and Erdogan -- on their terms.

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https://www.cnn.com/2019/10/20/middleeast/putin-now-owns-this-mess-intl/index.html

2019-10-20 05:16:00Z
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Brexit vote postponed: Here's what could happen now - CNBC

Despite being billed as "Super Saturday," a special parliamentary session in the House of Commons offered little detail on when, or even if, Britain will finally exit the European Union.

U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson was thwarted by a cross-party group of politicians who voted to postpone the "meaningful vote" on his new divorce deal and force him to ask Brussels for an extension to the current Oct. 31 Brexit deadline.

The developments in Parliament set up a complicated week with just 11 days left until the U.K. is still due to leave the world's largest trading bloc.

Will there be a deadline delay?

Johnson grudgingly asked for an extension to the deadline late on Saturday night, but EU leaders don't necessarily have to accept it. Some have ruled out giving Britain more time, piling pressure on U.K. lawmakers to accept the current deal. But it's unlikely they would want a no-deal scenario and the potential economic hit it could mean for both sides of the English Channel.

Brussels could offer a technical extension of a few weeks in the hope of passing the agreement they recently thrashed out with Johnson. Or they could accept what Johnson was obliged to ask for on Saturday night and push the date back to January 31, opening the door to a U.K. general election — which itself could lead to a renegotiation or a second referendum.

They could also push it out until June 2020 when the next cycle of EU budgets begins, but this is seen as unlikely with the Brexit fatigue that has set in across the whole of Europe.

EU leaders are expected to take their time with a response, but it could come as early as Monday.

When will the vote now happen?

The U.K. government is keen to have its "meaningful vote" on Monday, but this could be rejected by the house speaker as it's not parliamentary convention to repeatedly ask the same questions to politicians.

Instead, the government could present the full Withdrawal Agreement Bill early this week and slowly to try to pass it through both chambers — the House of Commons and the House of Lords. This will involve days of debate, many attempts to amend the bill and a selection of different votes as the week progresses. A crunch, decisive question to lawmakers would then come later in the week or be pushed back even further.

Could we still have no deal?

Yes. The cross-party amendment that was backed on Saturday tried to reduce the odds of a no deal, but it could still happen. The EU could say no to an extension. The passage of the bill could also be held up and not make it through Parliament in the time available.

Could there still be a second referendum?

Yes. Some MPs (Members of Parliament) will likely try to amend the bill this week to make sure there is a "confirmatory" referendum. If a lengthy extension is granted by the EU then nothing is ruled out. Several opposition parties would campaign to offer a so-called People's Vote in the event of a general election, or could promise to abandon Brexit altogether.

JUSTIN TALLIS | AFP | Getty Images

What are the experts saying?

Capital Economics called Saturday's vote "a decent result for the economy and the pound as it makes a no deal Brexit on 31st October even less likely." But it added that "it does extend the uncertainty that has been hampering growth for a least a bit longer."

Analysts at Deutsche Bank said "the outlook for a Brexit resolution remains constructive," explaining that the makeup of the voting on Saturday actually meant that Johnson could receive enough backing for his deal at a later date.

The bank also said it would "retain our constructive outlook on the U.K., and long sterling and short U.K. real yield recommendations."

If Brexit already seems complicated, it might be about to get a whole lot more so.

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2019-10-20 08:09:28Z
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Hong Kong Protesters Rally Despite Attacks and Police Ban - The New York Times

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As violence escalates between demonstrators and the police in Hong Kong, protesters have started writing “last letters” to their loved ones, in case they don’t return. These notes chronicle the mental and emotional state of frontliners coming to terms with risking death for their beliefs.CreditCreditOrlando de Guzman/The New York Times

HONG KONG — The police in Hong Kong fired tear gas and protesters lit fires in a bank branch and subway entrances on Sunday, as tens of thousands of people marched despite an official ban and attacks on the march promoters.

The demonstration, which began peacefully before outbursts of vandalism and clashes between the police and protesters, was a display of continuing support for the movement despite increasing restrictions and official condemnation.

Demonstrators gathered in Tsim Sha Tsui, a crowded commercial district on the southern tip of the Kowloon Peninsula, to march to West Kowloon, site of an arts district and a high-speed rail station that links the city to mainland China.

They assembled along a promenade beside Victoria Harbor and chanted slogans while the protest anthem “Glory to Hong Kong” was played.

The Hong Kong subway system, which has sustained widespread vandalism from protesters in recent weeks, closed stations near the march route.

Protesters broke windows in multiple stations on Sunday and painted graffiti over the protective barriers installed around the entryways. They also set fire to an entrance to the Mong Kok subway station and a Bank of China branch.

Around 3:15 p.m., the police fired tear gas at protesters near the Tsim Sha Tsui Police Station. Shortly after that, some protesters threw several firebombs into the station, briefly setting a tree alight.

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Protesters were clashing with riot police officers near the Tsim Sha Tsui police station in Hong Kong.CreditLam Yik Fei for The New York Times

The Civil Human Rights Front, the organizer of large, peaceful marches this summer they estimate were attended by up to two million people, applied to host the event Sunday. But the police rejected the application, saying that such demonstrations have often been hijacked by vandalism and violence.

After that denial, the Civil Human Rights Front backed out of hosting the march, but one of its leaders, Figo Chan, and other pro-democracy figures called on people to turn out anyway.

“I’m not afraid of arrest, of jail, of getting beaten up or gashed,” Mr. Chan said Sunday before the march. “But I hope people understand that to fight for democracy, freedom and justice, we must sacrifice. We use peaceful, rational and nonviolent means to express our demands. We are not afraid of arrest. What I fear most is everyone giving up on our principles.”

Another Civil Human Rights Front leader, Jimmy Sham, was attacked by men with hammers on Tuesday in Kowloon. Mr. Sham was released from a hospital, but was continuing to receive treatment and not able to attend the march, the group said.

On Saturday evening, a 19-year-old man distributing fliers to call on people to join the march was assaulted near a subway station in northern Hong Kong. He was stabbed in the neck and the abdomen, and is hospitalized in serious condition, the government said.

A 22-year-old man was arrested in the attack. The local news media quoted witnesses who said the attacker shouted that Hong Kong is a part of China, and that protesters were damaging the city.

Chinese officials and the state news media have denounced the protests as a separatist movement. Some Hong Kong marchers carried Catalan flags on Sunday to show solidarity with the separatist movement in Spain. But while some protesters have called for Hong Kong’s independence from China, it is not a focus of the Hong Kong demonstrators nor one of their official demands.

The protests began over legislation, since withdrawn, that would have allowed extraditions to mainland China from Hong Kong. Hong Kong’s top leader, Chief Executive Carrie Lam, said in September that the government would withdraw the proposal, but public anger with the authorities has remained high.

The marchers on Sunday reiterated other longstanding demands, including an independent investigation of the police, amnesty for arrested protesters and the introduction of direct elections for the chief executive and legislature.

The organizers have also raised two newer demands: a reorganization of the police department and the scrapping of a ban on face masks.

Mrs. Lam used emergency powers this month to introduce the mask law. The move set off a wave of fresh protests and clashes with the police.

“I want to make best use of every chance to come out,” said Anne Chin, 32, a clerk who joined the march. “After the mask ban, we don’t know when the government will invoke the Emergency Regulations Ordinance again and implement laws that may further muzzle Hong Kong people’s rights.”

Demonstrators on Sunday also expressed support for Hong Kong’s ethnic minority communities. Some reports said Mr. Sham’s attackers were paid South Asian men, and people in the protest movement said they were worried that could lead to retaliatory attacks.

Some demonstrators stood outside the Kowloon Mosque and Islamic Center with signs calling on others to respect the building. “Be nice to religion,” one sign read. At Chungking Mansions, a building in Tsim Sha Tsui that holds several South Asian-run restaurants and shops, volunteers handed out bottled water to demonstrators.

Kamil Kaka, who is from southern India and has lived in Hong Kong for more than a decade, said he was a little worried that protesters could target South Asians like him.

But Mr. Kaka, 32, said he thought Hong Kong people should have a right to protest, as he stood on a side street in Tsim Sha Tsui, watching demonstrators stream down the district’s main thoroughfare.

”People are fighting for their freedom,” Mr. Kaka said.

Protesters said they were determined to show that the movement still enjoyed wide support, even if the attendance had been dampened by police bans and recent attacks. Jason Wong, a 26-year-old office worker, brought to the march 60-foot-long black banners signed beforehand by residents in each of the city’s 18 districts with colorful markers, an effort aided by a team of volunteers.

“The government has posed many restrictions and tried to oppress the Hong Kong people but we cannot show weakness,” he said. “We need to show the world that we have many people calling for common demands, even if not everyone dares to come out.”

Ezra Cheung, Elaine Yu, Javier Hernández and Tiffany May contributed reporting.

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2019-10-20 04:03:00Z
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Erdogan vows to 'crush the heads' of Kurds if they don't withdraw; both sides trade blame for violating cea... - Fox News

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Saturday promised to "crush the heads" of the Kurds in Syria if they don't fall back from the border's safe zone, according to reports.

The threat comes as both Turkey and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) claim the other is violating terms of a 120-hour cease-fire brokered by Turkey and the U.S. on Thursday.

Violence continued in northeast Syria despite the five-day peace agreement, a source told Fox News.

Dave Eubank with Free Burma Rangers, a private military company that provides emergency medical assistance, was on the ground near the Syrian border town of Ras al-Ayn trying to help trapped and wounded Kurds.

Eubank told Fox News the fighting hasn't stopped and movement in the area is severely limited, despite the cease-fire's intention to "pause" fighting to allow Syrian Kurds time and space to retreat from the area. Thousands of Kurdish civilians live in the so-called buffer zone, a senior military source had told Fox News.

The Turkish-backed Free Syrian Army (FSA) was "still shooting all through the night," Eubank said. "So far since [the] cease-fire, no airstrikes here, but artillery and ground attacks."

Erdogan threatened the Kurds on Saturday during a televised speech, saying they will be slaughtered if they don't pull back from the 20-mile-wide safe zone along the Turkey-Syria border by Tuesday night.

"We will start where we left off and continue to crush the terrorists' heads," Erdogan said.

US JETS DESTROY ANTI-ISIS COALITION BASE IN SYRIA AFTER WITHDRAWAL, OFFICIAL SAYS

Turkey claims it is living up to the terms of the cease-fire agreement and accused the Kurds of  violating it.

The Turkish Defense Ministry said Kurdish forces carried out 14 "provocative" attacks in Ras al-Ayn in 36 hours, according to the BBC.

In a statement, the SDF said there has been "no tangible progress" in solving the issues at the northeast border.

TURKEY-SYRIA CEASE-FIRE: SENIOR US MILITARY SOURCE 'HIGHLY SKEPTICAL' OF DEAL

As of Friday, 86 civilians had been killed since Turkey launched its military offensive into Syria on Oct. 9, according to a war monitor, the BBC reported.

Erdogan claimed the move was to "neutralize terror threats" and establish a "safe zone." After carrying out airstrikes, Turkish ground troops later invaded northeastern Syria.

Nearly all U.S. troops there have been removed and will be redeployed in the region in the coming weeks.

TRUMPS WARNS ERDOGAN IN LETTER: 'DON'T BE A TOUGH GUY. DON'T BE A FOOL!'

The U.S. had teamed up with the Kurds to fight ISIS in the region. Some analysts and politicians criticized President Trump for removing America forces, saying it was a "green light" for Ankara to invade Syria and fight the Kurds.

Trump said the Turks have been "warring for many years," and that the U.S. does not need to protect war-torn Syria because it's "7,000 miles away."

The president on Friday claimed "thousands and thousands" of lives were being saved in Syria and Turkey due to the cease-fire.

Fox News' Griff Jenkins and Jennifer Griffin contributed to this report.

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2019-10-19 15:57:11Z
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MPs back Brexit deal delay - BBC News - BBC News

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2019-10-19 14:08:48Z
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Last minute bid to derail Brexit by rebel MPs; thousands protest outside Parliament - Fox News

A crucial vote on U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal was torpedoed on Saturday by a last-ditch bid by anti-Brexit MPs to derail it hours before lawmakers were due to cast their votes -- as thousands protested outside Parliament.

An amendment passed 322-306 that would require Johnson to apply for a delay to Britain's Oct. 31 departure from the bloc if the deal passed, something that Johnson said he would not do.

BREXIT BREAKTHROUGH? BORIS JOHNSON AGREES 'GREAT NEW DEAL' WITH EU

The rare Saturday session of Parliament - dubbed "Super Saturday" - was surrounded with both drama and a cloud of unknowns ahead of the vote expected late in the day, and comes just days after Johnson had secured a new withdrawal agreement with European leaders during the week, ahead of Britain’s scheduled departure from the bloc at the end of the month.

Lawmakers on both sides of the issue had warned of the danger of leaving without a deal, and Johnson had hailed the agreement as one that would satisfy hardline Brexiteers while making sure that the U.K. did not crash out of the bloc. It would have also allowed the U.K. to leave at Oct. 31.

Johnson is required to send a letter to the E.U. tonight requesting another delay under a law called the Benn Act. If his deal would have passed it would have nullified the Benn Act. But on Saturday, Johnson issued a defiant warning that he would not seek a delay -- although he did not say specifically he would not send the letter.

An effigy of Dominic Cummings advisor to British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, holds an effigy of Prime Minister Johnson, right, during a protest march in London, Saturday, Oct. 19, 2019.  (PA via AP)

"I will not negotiate a delay with the E.U. and neither does the law compel me to do so," he said, adding that the government would introduce the legislation next week to get his deal again over the line.

As lawmakers debated the measure, thousands of mostly anti-Brexit protesters marched through the streets of London. Many of them were calling for a second referendum -- something that those opposed to Brexit have been calling for since shortly after the first referendum in 2016, where 52 percent of voters chose to leave.

While polls show Johnson’s Conservative Party leading comfortably in the polls, there is a strong alliance of anti-Brexit parties in Parliament, and polls suggest that the public is still mostly split down the middle on Britain’s departure from the E.U.

Supporters of the amendment that passed, put forward by independent (and former Tory) MP Oliver Letwin, said it will remove the risk that the U.K. could still fall out of the bloc by mistake if there was a problem getting through Parliament the formal legislation needed to implement the deal.

But it requires Johnson, who has repeatedly promised that Britain would leave the E.U. on Oct. 31., to request a delay to the departure date. European leaders have said that there would be no further delays now that there is a deal on the table.

"I want us to finish this off and speak about the future," French President Emmanuel Macron said on Friday. "The Oct. 31 date must be respected. I don't believe new delays should be granted."

BORIS JOHNSON AIDE DENIES PRIME MINISTER COFFEE IN DISPOSABLE CUP

A demonstrator carries his dog, draped in EU flag, during anti-Brexit protest in London, Saturday, Oct. 19, 2019.  (AP)

Even without the amendment, getting the deal passed is a daunting task for Johnson. His party holds only 288 seats in the 650-seat House of Commons, so will require support from pro-Brexit MPs in other parties -- while limiting defections within his own.

It was a task that evaded former Prime Minister Theresa May, who failed to get her own deal through on three separate occasions before she resigned in the summer.

Johnson’s deal differs from the May’s deal on the crucial aspect that it abandons the controversial backstop proposal that would have seen the U.K. kept in a customs union until a formal trade deal was made. The backstop was made to prevent a hard border between Northern Ireland (which is part of the U.K.) and Ireland -- which is remaining within the E.U.

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But in Johnson’s deal a special status is created for Northern Ireland which allows it to keep an open border with Ireland but while keeping unity with the rest of the U.K.

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2019-10-19 13:44:54Z
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MPs 'nod off' in crucial Commons Brexit debate - The Sun

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2019-10-19 12:35:42Z
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