Selasa, 28 September 2021

Taliban outlaws barbers in Afghanistan's Helmand province from shaving or trimming beards - Sky News

Barbers in Afghanistan's Helmand province have been banned by the Taliban from shaving or trimming beards.

The order was issued on Monday and marks the latest in a series of restrictions placed on the country's residents based on the Taliban's strict interpretation of Islamic law.

Sharia law is Islam's legal system - which is based on the Koran and the rulings of Islamic scholars - and acts as a code of conduct for modern Muslims to adhere to, ensuring they abide by God's wishes in all areas of life from daily routines to personal beliefs.

"If anyone violates the rule (they) will be punished and no one has a right to complain," said the new regulation, issued by the provincial Taliban government's vice and virtue department to barbers in Lashkar Gah, the provincial capital.

It was not immediately clear what penalties the barbers could face if they breached the order.

During their previous rule of Afghanistan in the late 1990s, the Taliban demanded men grow beards.

After the group were ousted from power following the US-led invasion in 2001, shaved or cleanly trimmed beards became popular in the country.

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"I request our Taliban brothers to give freedom to people to live the way they want, if they want to trim their beard or hair," one barber told the AP news agency.

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"Now we have few clients coming to us, they are scared, they don't want to trim their hair or beards, so I request them let people free, so we have our business and people can freely come to us."

Another, Sher Afzal, added: "If someone comes for a haircut, they will come back to us after 40 to 45 days, so it is affecting our business like any other businesses."

The latest regulation is one of several moves which signal the Taliban have not been swayed by international criticism and that they are sticking to their current hardline path despite initial promises of a more moderate rule, inclusivity and upholding women's rights since regaining control of the country.

In recent weeks it has appointed an all-male government and has banned girls in grades six to 12 from returning to school, while some female employees have been told to stay at home.

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2021-09-28 07:13:32Z
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Merkel's natural heir: how Olaf Scholz won Germany's election - Financial Times

Angela Merkel’s decision to quit Germany’s political stage after 16 years as chancellor left millions of votes up for grabs. In Sunday’s election, Olaf Scholz seized them with both hands — and won.

From the start of the campaign Scholz, the Social Democrats’ candidate for chancellor, doggedly targeted the many Germans who had backed Merkel in the past four elections but had no strong allegiance to her Christian Democratic Union.

“They are the Merkel Sozis,” said one Scholz aide — people who “voted CDU/CSU while Merkel was in charge but could [now] contemplate voting SPD or Green”.

“They’re people who appreciate Merkel’s unpretentiousness, her good sense of humour, her calmness — and see exactly the same qualities in Olaf,” he added.

The approach paid off, with spectacular results. Just months ago, the SPD was languishing at about 15 per cent in the polls. On Sunday it won the election with 25.7 per cent of the vote, and the CDU/CSU slumped to the worst result in its history.

Throughout the campaign, Scholz had stressed that this election would be different from those before it. For the first time in Germany’s postwar history, an incumbent chancellor was not standing for re-election. His belief was that Merkel quitting the stage meant voters would choose the candidate best qualified to fill her shoes, regardless of party.

Speaking to the Financial Times in June, Scholz said the focus in this year’s election would be less on who had the best policies than on “which person do we want to run the country”. Most voters, he said, would ultimately decide it should be him.

Scholz turned out to be right. He was able to present himself as Merkel’s natural successor, despite coming from another party. The virtues classically attributed to Merkel — pragmatism, sobriety, dependability and a wealth of experience in office — seemed to transfer magically from the chancellor to her finance minister.

“Scholz was able to slip into the role of incumbent,” said Andrea Römmele, professor of communication in politics at the Hertie School in Berlin.

Merkel’s decision to bow out also lifted a curse that had dogged the SPD for years. As junior partner in her “grand coalition” for the past eight years, it played a decisive role in shaping policy: it was thanks to the SPD that Germany introduced a minimum wage in 2015, for example. But voters routinely rewarded Merkel, not the Social Democrats, for these successes.

That changed this year. “Because Merkel wasn’t running again, the SPD was able to take the credit for all its achievements in government — which the chancellor would have claimed for herself if she’d been standing,” said Römmele.

Olaf Scholz and Chancellor Angela Merkel at a cabinet meeting in January 2020
Olaf Scholz and Chancellor Angela Merkel at a cabinet meeting in January 2020 © Hayoung Jeon/EPA/Shutterstock

Scholz’s other important insight was that changes in Germany’s political landscape could ultimately benefit the SPD more than its conservative rival. Asked in the summer how he thought the Social Democrats could recover in the polls, he expressed a confidence that seemed misplaced at the time but which in retrospect was justified.

“The era when one party got 40 per cent or more of the vote is over,” he told the FT. “We have a multi-party system where the big parties have many fewer seats than they used to — and that means that only minor changes in voter behaviour can create completely new constellations.”

It was a prescient view. Scholz is now eyeing an SPD-led, three-party coalition, the first in Germany since the 1950s.

Scholz’s path to the top has not been straightforward. Unloved in his own party, the former federal labour minister and mayor of Hamburg suffered a humiliating defeat in the 2019 contest for the SPD leadership, losing out to a pair of little-known leftwingers.

Many Social Democrats are suspicious of him, identifying him with contentious labour and welfare reforms pushed through by Gerhard Schröder, the last Social Democrat chancellor, under whom Scholz served as SPD secretary-general.

Saskia Esken, one of the pair who defeated him in 2019, even cast doubt in a TV interview that year on whether Scholz was a “true, steadfast Social Democrat”.

Yet despite the party’s mistrust, it nominated Scholz as its candidate for chancellor in August last year. At the time, the SPD was at a nadir in the polls, and few in the party expected him to be able to turn round its fortunes. Cynics said the party’s leftwingers saw him as a convenient scapegoat if the SPD went down to a crushing electoral defeat.

Some in Berlin also said the decision to appoint Scholz had come far too early — more than a year before the election. Yet it turned out to be a smart move.

“It meant we were able to create a customised campaign exactly tailored to Scholz”, said Jens Zimmermann, an SPD MP. “We could put together a very good, well-thought-through plan of action.”

Scholz hardly put a foot wrong, unlike his rivals. Armin Laschet, candidate for the CDU/CSU, saw his poll numbers plummet after laughing during a visit to areas devastated by flooding. Annalena Baerbock, the Green candidate, had to fight off accusations of plagiarism and embellishing her CV.

Scholz, in contrast, came across as a seasoned politician people said they could trust. He was credited with deftly steering Germany’s public finances through the pandemic.

He also ran an uncluttered campaign based on simple promises: a higher minimum wage, stable pensions, more affordable housing and a carbon-neutral economy.

And all the time, the SPD — a rambunctious party long troubled by infighting — stood solidly behind their candidate. “We have not been this united in years,” said Zimmermann.

Running such a personalised campaign so tightly focused on Scholz the politician could have backfired. But it seems to have paid dividends.

Franziska Reisener, a pensioner, was one of dozens of people who gathered in Potsdam last Saturday to hear his last campaign speech. She said she would be voting SPD, largely based on her faith in Scholz. “He’s by the far the most credible candidate of the three,” she said. “He’s the one who’ll get things done.”

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2021-09-28 04:01:11Z
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North Korea fires suspected ballistic missile into sea as it accuses US of hostility - Sky News

North Korea has fired a short-range missile towards the sea off its east coast, South Korea's military and Tokyo officials have said.

Details of the launch are being analysed by South Korean and US authorities. But Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga said it "could be a ballistic missile" - which can be used to carry large nuclear warheads and is banned under United Nations sanctions.

The test happened early on Tuesday as North Korea's ambassador to the UN said no one could deny his country's right to self defence and to test weapons.

A missile is seen launched during a drill of the Railway Mobile Missile Regiment in North Korea, in this image supplied by North Korea's Korean Central News Agency on September 16, 2021. Pic: KCNA
Image: There have been a series of missile launches by Pyongyang in September. Pic: North Korea's Korean Central News Agency (KCNA)

Kim Song accused the United States of hostility and said his country's development of a "war deterrent" was a necessity to defend itself against US threats.

He demanded the Biden administration permanently end joint military exercises with South Korea, and accused Seoul of betraying inter-Korean peace agreements by prioritising its Western ally over "national harmony".

North Korea's latest move follows two previous ballistic and cruise missile tests earlier this month.

Seoul's Joint Chiefs of Staff did not immediately say what the North launched in its latest test on the Korean Peninsula, or how far the weapon flew.

More on North Korea

The US Indo-Pacific Command said the launch posed no immediate threat to the United States or its allies but added that it highlighted "the destabilising impact" of Pyongyang's illicit weapons programmes.

North Korea test-fires long-range cruise missile
The Academy of National Defense Science conducts long-range cruise missile tests in North Korea, as pictured in this combination of undated photos supplied by North Korea's Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) on September 13, 2021
Image: Images of this cruise missile launch earlier this month were also released by North Korean state media. Pic: KCNA

Talks over North Korea's nuclear disarmament have floundered since Donald Trump's second meeting with Kim Jong Un in 2019, when the former US president rejected a request for major sanctions relief.

Kim Jong Un has so far rejected the Biden administration's moves for dialogue, demanding Washington's "hostile" policies are dropped first.

The US keeps about 28,000 troops in South Korea to help deter potential aggression from North Korea.

Seoul and Washington say their drills are defensive in nature, but they have cancelled or downsized them in recent years to create space for diplomacy or in response to the coronavirus pandemic.

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2021-09-28 05:06:09Z
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Senin, 27 September 2021

German poll winner Olaf Scholz says shortage of lorry drivers is Britain's own fault - Daily Mail

German poll winner in Brexit jibe over truckers: Olaf Scholz says shortage of lorry drivers is Britain's own fault... as he vows to form coalition by Christmas

  • Social Democrat Olaf Scholz blamed Brexit for the current lorry driver crisis
  • He said he hopes the UK 'will manage the problems coming from' leaving the EU
  • His SPD party emerged with a narrow victory in Germany's election on Sunday

Germany's would-be new leader has wasted no time in taking a swipe at the UK.

Social Democrat candidate Olaf Scholz, whose SPD party emerged with a narrow election victory on Sunday, blamed Brexit for the current lorry driver crisis.

Asked if he would send German drivers to help Britain, the 63-year-old former socialist activist said: ‘We worked very hard to convince the British not to leave the union.

‘They decided different and I hope they will manage the problems coming from that.’ Mr Scholz said he wanted to form a government as quickly as possible with the pro-business Free Democrats (FDP) and the Greens, and set a target of Christmas to strike a power-sharing deal. The SPD picked up nearly 26 per cent of ballots cast, leading to 206 seats, to the 24.5 per cent gained by Angela Merkel’s Christian Democrats (CDU) in their worst election performance in 72 years.

Social Democrat candidate Olaf Scholz, whose SPD party emerged with a narrow election victory on Sunday, blamed Brexit for the current lorry driver crisis

Social Democrat candidate Olaf Scholz, whose SPD party emerged with a narrow election victory on Sunday, blamed Brexit for the current lorry driver crisis

Angela Merkel stepped down as Chancellor at the election but will stay on as caretaker chancellor until a new government has officially been formed

Angela Merkel stepped down as Chancellor at the election but will stay on as caretaker chancellor until a new government has officially been formed

Mr Scholz’s party needs 162 more seats to take power, with a 368-seat majority needed to lead the 735-seat Bundestag, and the closely run race has left the FDP and the Greens as the likely kingmakers.

Both parties ‘won a considerable increase in votes’, Mr Scholz said. ‘This is why we will be trying to enter into coalitions with these parties.

The German Parliament and its possible coalitions following Sunday's election

The German Parliament and its possible coalitions following Sunday's election

‘My idea is that we will be very fast in getting a result for this government, and it should be before Christmas if possible. Germany always has coalition governments, and it was always stable.’

FDP leader Christian Linder said he wanted to ‘launch sounding-out talks with the Greens’ to ‘try and find common ground’.

But sealing an agreement for a so-called traffic light coalition could prove a challenge. The three parties have radically different views on several key issues. Mrs Merkel stepped down at the election but will stay on as caretaker chancellor until a new government has officially been formed.

The CDU’s candidate to replace her, Armin Laschet, was last night still refusing to concede.

‘Olaf Scholz is not the king,’ he reportedly told aides, according to the German tabloid Bild.

‘No party has emerged from this election with a clear mandate to form a government,’ he said as he too looked for ‘exploratory talks’ with the FDP and Greens.

Mr Laschet acknowledged he had a ‘personal share’ of responsibility for his party’s dire showing at the polls but said he could still govern.

‘We are convinced that a government led by the CDU/CSU is the best thing for our country,’ he added.

Markus Soeder, the leader of the CDU’s sister party, the Bavarian Christian Social Union, piled the pressure on Mr Laschet’s gaffe-strewn campaign by hinting he should stand aside.

He said a second-placed party had ‘no entitlement’ to form a government ‘so we can only make an offer’.

The CDU, which picked up more than a third of votes in 2017, fared so badly that Mrs Merkel’s former constituency went to the Social Democrats. SPD victor Anna Kassautzki, 27, was not born when Mrs Merkel first won the northern seat of Rugen and Greifswald in 1990.

French Europe minister Clement Beaune, one of Emmanuel Macron’s most trusted aides, urged a ‘swift’ resolution to the political deadlock, adding that France wanted ‘a strong German government in place.’

‘The talks between German political parties and us should start right now so that we get to know one another,’ he said.

Whoever claims the crown will drag Germany further into a giant EU blob 

Commentary by ALEXANDER VON SCHOENBURG

Now begins the wrangling. The imminent departure of Angela Merkel as Germany’s chancellor, amid the country’s closest election results in decades, leaves Europe’s powerhouse facing an uncertain future.

In a nation where coalitions are the norm, all politics is done by debate and negotiation rather than ballot-box victories.

But this time the power-sharing is more complex than ever. The most likely outcome might be a union of three Left-of-centre parties, in a wobbly triple combination. That’s something Germany hasn’t experienced since the early 1950s.

Only one thing is sure. Frau Merkel has embedded Germany so deeply in the European Union superstate that there can be no reversal of our headlong pro-Euro direction.

Germany is emasculated.

We have handed over our sovereignty to Brussels. Whoever is sitting at the top of the table in Berlin is now of secondary importance.

Contender for the top job: Social Democrat candidate Olaf Scholz (centre)

Contender for the top job: Social Democrat candidate Olaf Scholz (centre) 

In 16 years as head of state, Angela Merkel has achieved her goal of turning Germany into a locomotive engine, pulling Europe ever deeper into integration.

Coming from Eastern Germany she has, consciously or not, cemented a change of mentality in this country, the most populous in Europe. Frau Merkel has remoulded us in an image resembling something closer to her former home, the communist German Democratic Republic (GDR).

But she has done so at the expense of her party, the formerly conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU).

Under party leader Armin Laschet, the CDU suffered its worst result since the existence of the Federal Republic. It was virtually wiped out in the east of the country. In Saxony, the party that once was triumphant under Helmut Kohl was relegated to third place, with the ultra-conservative Alternative for Germany (AfD) now the biggest party in the eastern federal state.

It is a defeat so ignominious that, by the time you read this, Laschet might well be ousted.

Merkel has moved the CDU so far to the Left of centre, that conservatives no longer feel represented by her. They resent her politics and either no longer vote at all or give their vote to other parties out of frustration.

Nobody has any idea what the CDU stands for these days, as Merkel threw overboard all ideological luggage from the past and enthusiastically adopted formerly Left-wing positions.

She embraced open borders and the centralisation of government, she slashed spending on the Armed Forces, she was lax on law and order.

In short, she dragged her party so far to the Left that it became indistinguishable from the Social Democrats. Gleefully, they positioned themselves as her anointed heirs.

Merkel has done to the Christian Democrats what Tony Blair did (in the other direction) to Labour, hauling her party into the centre and then across to the other side.

The CDU is no longer a conservative party. Like a football team that loses its superstar player, it must now completely redefine itself – and it doesn’t know how to do that.

Just as Labour in Britain has been unable to pull out of its downward spiral since Blair’s departure, it is hard to see what the CDU can do in the post-Merkel era.

But this is Germany, of course. Don’t imagine there will be overt chaos. We’re far too well organised for that.

The key to power now lies with the minority parties, particularly the Greens and the Liberals (FDP). They have each scooped up between 10 and 15 per cent of the national vote.

The CDU and their main rivals, the centre-Left SPD, both polled around 25 per cent. Whoever can persuade the Greens and Liberals to come aboard will form the next government.

During months of haggling, both leading parties will offer to rewrite their manifestos, adopt new policies, abandon pledges and ditch allies. There is nothing more cynical than coalition politics in action.

In the meantime, Merkel will stay on as the caretaker chancellor, probably into the New Year, allowing her to deliver one more traditional address to the nation.

Her potential successors are Laschet (if he’s still standing) and the SPD’s Olaf Scholz, whose face is fixed in a permanent grin. He was a hard-Left radical in his youth, fighting for ‘victory over the capitalist economy’.

His task is to convince the pro-business Liberals that he will allow industry to thrive, while persuading the Greens that he will follow a course of reducing carbon emissions.

With typical German hubris, the Greens want Germany to be a global leader on climate change, the world’s No 1 example of clean energy. Liberals prefer to focus on lower taxes and are ardently against an increase in the cost of living for the middle classes.

Right now, they both seem more likely to reject the CDU and back Scholz. Wags are calling this the ‘Jamaica coalition’, because the party colours (red and green, plus yellow for the FDP) match the Jamaican flag.

But it really doesn’t matter what the coalition looks like. They all sing from the same hymn sheet, particularly as far as Europe and foreign policy are concerned.

And even when she has stepped down as chancellor, Merkel will continue to be Europe’s most respected elder statesman. Her protegé, Ursula von der Leyen, will still be President of the European Commission. In other words, no change there. Whether our next chancellor is Scholz, Laschet or Laschet’s successor, Germany will forge ahead with the continued integration of EU countries into a huge blob.

Laschet grew up at the French border and sees no point in nation states at all. He comes from Aachen, which is close to the state lines with Belgium and the Netherlands (the city where the first European emperor, Charlemagne, was crowned). It is no big surprise that he sees France and Germany as one.

Scholz is even more in favour of EU integration than Merkel. Like the socialist activist he once so passionately was, he is an internationalist. His dream is to melt Europe into one superstate.

In fact, most modern Social Democrats, particularly the young, yearn for a future where nation states cease to exist, and we all live in a colourful, multi-cultural society where it no longer matters where anybody comes from.

For Britain, this is by no means all bad news. For one thing, whatever his delusions, French president Emmanuel Macron has no hope of stepping up and taking Merkel’s place as the most prominent politician in Europe.

Ignore his posturing. The man is a laughing stock in Germany, and barely respected in his own country. He could not be ‘first among equals’ among Europe’s leaders, even if he had a complete change of personality. It would take more than that to make him any match for Frau Merkel.

And readers who still harbour fears about the re-emergence of a powerful Germany can be reassured that the ultimate goal of German politicians on all sides is the abolition of nation states, where nationalism is impossible.

All of which makes one conclusion very plain, if nothing else. Brexit was a fortuitous escape for you in Britain.

Many Britons were always opposed to being on board the Euro juggernaut, with unelected technocrats at the wheel. That’s what Merkel has bequeathed to Germany and, no matter who succeeds her, our country can no longer escape the ride.

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2021-09-27 21:00:53Z
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Fed official warns of ‘extreme’ market reaction unless debt ceiling raised - Financial Times

Two top Federal Reserve officials on Monday warned that failing to raise the US debt ceiling would have catastrophic consequences as Republicans in the Senate blocked a bill to increase the borrowing limit and stave off a government shutdown.

John Williams, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, said the US central bank would be unable to mitigate the impact of a potential default on the government’s debt. The Bipartisan Policy Center, a Washington think-tank, estimated last week that the US government could default on its obligations as soon as mid-October if the debt ceiling were not raised.

Williams warned reporters of the risk that investors could become “extremely nervous” and think “I’ve got to get out of things”, which he said could lead to an “extreme kind of reaction in markets”.

He said prices for US Treasuries reflected a belief among investors that “cooler heads” would prevail in Congress and were therefore not necessarily an “indicator of how big the risks are”.

“If you actually crossed that line and got to a place where the government wasn’t paying off its obligations, I think it would create a very negative dynamic not only in the US but around the world,” Williams said, invoking the meltdown in the market for US Treasuries last year.

“We saw it in March of 2020, the Treasury market . . . is the centre of the global financial system and if it’s not able to work that has repercussions,” he said.

Trading conditions in the $22tn market for US government debt seized up at the onset of the pandemic last year, as investors ditched even the safest securities in a broad-based dash-for-cash. The abrupt bout of illiquidity forced immediate interventions from the Fed to stave off a more severe crisis.

The comments from Williams were echoed by Treasury secretary Janet Yellen. In testimony due to be delivered to the Senate banking committee on Tuesday, she implored lawmakers to raise the debt limit in order to avert what she said would be a “catastrophic event for [the] economy”.

Federal Reserve governor Lael Brainard on Monday also urged lawmakers to act on Monday. “Congress knows what it needs to do . . . It needs to step up; it has responsibilities,” she said.

The comments from Brainard and Williams follow warnings from Fed chair Jay Powell last week of “severe damage” should the US default on its obligations. 

The Democrat-controlled House of Representatives passed a measure this month in a party-line vote to avert a government shutdown on October 1 and extend the US debt limit until December next year.

But the bill failed to clear the Senate’s 60-vote filibuster threshold on Monday evening, with Republicans in the upper chamber of Congress voting to reject the measure. Democrats, who control the Senate by the slimmest of margins, are now under pressure to raise the borrowing limit on their own and avert a government shutdown ahead of a 12:01am Friday deadline.

Monday’s vote came after a weeks-long stand-off between Democrats — who wanted the GOP to sign on to lifting the Treasury’s borrowing limit — and Republicans, who steadfastly refused to endorse the measure and accused Joe Biden’s party of reckless public spending.

Republicans voted to suspend the debt limit three times during Donald Trump’s administration, with backing from Democrats.

Mitch McConnell, the Senate’s top Republican, said ahead of Monday’s vote that he and his GOP colleagues would back a “clean” piece of legislation that funded the federal government to avoid a shutdown but would not sign on to the Democrats’ efforts to tie government funding to the debt ceiling.

“There is no chance Republicans will help lift Democrats’ credit limit so they can immediately steamroller through a socialist binge that will hurt families and help China,” McConnell said.

Democratic lawmakers are also scrambling to solve internal party divisions in order to pass Biden’s flagship $1.2tn infrastructure bill and a $3.5tn social investment package in the coming weeks.

Nancy Pelosi, the Democratic Speaker of the House, has scheduled a make-or-break vote on the infrastructure bill for Thursday.

Pelosi said at the weekend that she would not bring the infrastructure bill to the House floor until she was sure she had the votes to pass it. That prospect still looked uncertain on Monday, as several progressive and moderate lawmakers raised issues with the legislative package.

Progressives want assurances that the $3.5tn bill will not be watered down in the Senate, while moderates say the sweeping social investments need to be scaled back.

Biden struck an upbeat tone at the White House on Monday, telling reporters: “I think things are going to go well, I think we are going to get it done.” Asked what was “at stake” for his presidency amid the congressional wrangling this week, the president replied: “Victory is at stake.”

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2021-09-27 23:06:18Z
CAIiEOz_VT09QtCDnbgNkDQuescqFwgEKg8IACoHCAow-4fWBzD4z0gwwtp6

German election: What will the make-up of the ruling coalition look like? - Sky News

Olaf Scholz, the candidate for chancellor for the party with the most seats after the German election, says he is ready to start negotiations to form a coalition that will allow him to lead his country.

But the Social Democratic Party's (SPD's) Mr Scholz has a battle on his hands.

Few of the potential coalition partners will make easy bedfellows, and few combinations will come together easily. It's still possible that Mr Scholz's rivals the Christian Democratic Union party (CDU) could form a government.

It could take weeks; it could take months (Mr Scholz hopes to strike a deal by Christmas). It might not even happen without another election.

In any case, in the meantime, Angela Merkel and her current government stay in place as caretakers, until a new coalition agreement is ratified by the German parliament.

As for coalitions, these are the most likely possibilities:

Traffic light

The traffic light coalition is so-called because it is made up of the red colour of the SPD, the yellow of the Free Democrats (FPD), and the green of the Greens.

Within a few hours of the election result being known, Mr Scholz said he aimed to reach an agreement to form a coalition government with the Greens and the FDP before Christmas. Experts have said this deadline will be difficult.

To do so, he will have to do something that has never been achieved before - a federal coalition involving the pro-environmental Greens and the pro-business FDP.

The candidate for the Free Democrats, Christian Lindner, has said in the past that he would not enter a coalition led by the Greens.

Although this particular coalition would not be led by the Greens, the party has significant sway over the direction the coalition would take. This may be unpalatable to Mr Lindner's party members, who have always been more comfortable entering coalitions with the CDU/CSU.

Annalena Baerbock, the leader of the Greens, has expressed her determination that the next German government will be a "climate government", but, if that requires higher taxation, Mr Lindner's FDP will not be pleased.

There is little doubt, there are some tough months ahead for Mr Scholz's negotiations.

Jamaica

The Jamaican coalition is so-named because it is the colours of the Jamaican flag: the black of the CDU/CSU, green (Greens), and yellow (FDP).

While the CDU/CSU has worked with the FDP in the past on a number of occasions, neither has experience of working with the Greens in federal government.

Yet, even though this coalition failed when Mrs Merkel attempted it in 2017, it remains a possibility.

That's because Mr Lindner stated his interest in a government alliance with the CDU and the Greens two days before the election - perhaps indicating he may be more willing to work with Ms Baerbock under a more conservative coalition framework.

The Greens were described as remaining sober about the prospect ahead of the vote, but they are also considered pragmatic, so long as they are able to get the policies they want into place.

Assuming the Greens and the FDP are likely kingmakers in the coalitions that will end up governing, Mr Lindner has proposed that his party and the Greens get together - even before starting to talk to the SPD or the CDU - to work out what they would require from any agreement.

Grand coalition

The last government was run by a "grand coalition" of the two main parties: the CDU/CSU and the SPD. The CSU is the equivalent to the CDU in Bavaria and almost always votes with them at the federal level.

The difference with this grand coalition would be that the SPD would be the biggest party, so it is likely Mr Scholz would be the chancellor, rather than anyone from the CDU, as Mrs Merkel was in the last government.

But many German commentators have said that, this time, a grand coalition is less likely because the vote share indicates Germans are wanting change, and have rejected the political status quo seen for several of the previous election results.

Yet, after a Jamaica coalition failed to be formed in 2017, Mrs Merkel had no choice but to attempt to form her grand coalition, and that may occur this time, even though both candidates have ruled it out.

Kenya

The red of the SPD, the green of the Greens, and the black of the CDU makes up the "Kenya" coalition possibility, after the colours of the Kenyan flag.

This would face many of the difficulties that the grand coalition faces, but probably even more, as both of the main parties would have to accommodate demands from the environmentally-focused Greens.

In the event it came about, however, it would potentially be a more powerful coalition as it would have a larger share in the German Bundestag, and could fight off minor rebellions by individual or small groups of MPs.

In any event, this is considered unlikely.

Germany/Belgium

This slightly confusingly named coalition is named after the colours of the German and Belgian flags - red, black, and yellow.

The combination of the SPD (who would probably lead), the CDU/CSU and the FPD has also never been achieved at federal level, but the FPD has worked with both in national government.

Like the Kenya option, while also not very likely, it would have the advantage of being a strong government, if a firm coalition agreement could be brokered.

Red-red-green

Red-red-green is so-called because the third partner in such a coalition is the Left party, the descendant of the former communist party in East Germany, that evolved after unification.

The party is usually represented by pink in Germany's rainbow politics, but it actually uses red in its logo.

This combination - which was considered such a possibility before the vote that the CDU actively warned voters about the risk of it - would not reach the 50% threshold required for a majority.

But, if Mr Scholz fails in his bid to create the traffic light and senses that the mood is against a coalition with the CDU, he may try to attempt this as a minority government - something that also has no precedent.

If he is successful, it would mean the most left wing and potentially radical government Germany has seen in modern times, but this is considered highly unlikely.

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Markets 'relief' at Germany election result

No agreement

If no agreement can be reached, it will be up to German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier to decide how to proceed.

He would be bound to explore whether any other coalition can be achieved. If not, any of the parties could try to oust their chosen candidate to choose another potential candidate who could form a working coalition.

As in the red-red-green option above, it is possible a different minority government could be formed, but this has never been done in the past.

What is most likely is that, once all the mathematically possible coalitions have been exhausted, Mr Steinmeier would have no choice but to call another election - either with the same candidates, or different ones, if the parties opt for it.

No agreement is possibly more likely than several of the options above.

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2021-09-27 14:52:17Z
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Taliban takes on ISKP, its most serious foe in Afghanistan - Al Jazeera English

After taking over Afghanistan last month, the Taliban claimed that security “has been assured” and that the county was taken out of the “quagmire of war”. But a series of attacks carried out by an affiliate of the ISIL (ISIS) group in recent weeks has shattered the claims of security.

In the six weeks since the Taliban came to power, there have been reports of Islamic State in Khorasan Province, ISKP (ISIS-K), attacks and activity in the cities of Kabul, Jalalabad and Mazar-i-Sharif.

On the evening of August 26, just 11 days after the Taliban takeover of the country, ISKP claimed responsibility for a bombing at Kabul’s Hamid Karzai International Airport. That attack led to the deaths of more than 180 people and injuries to hundreds of others.

In the last several weeks, several attacks have been reported in the city of Jalalabad, the capital of Nangarhar province, and one of ISKP’s most common targets. The recent attacks, including IED explosions, killed civilians and purported Taliban fighters.

In a Telegram message, ISKP claimed to have killed up to 35 Taliban fighters in Jalalabad, a figure the Taliban denies.

Each of these instances has been met with harsh words from the Taliban, who continue to pledge to eradicate any forces loyal to the ISIL group.

Deputy Minister of Information and Culture Zabihullah Mujahid told Al Jazeera that the group is actively “hunting down those who are sowing chaos” in the country.

Taliban crackdown

The Taliban has launched a crackdown on ISKP members, with reported detention of at least 80 purported fighters in Nangarhar – an ISKP stronghold.

The Taliban also claimed to have killed Mawlawi Ziya ul-Haq, also known as Abu Omar Khorasani, the former leader of ISKP, in Kabul’s notorious Pul-e-Charkhi prison.

Despite the Taliban’s claims that their group is unified, residents in major cities across the country have had direct run-ins with rogue Taliban fighters [EPA]

The Afghan group has also been credited with the death of Farooq Bengalzai, an ISIL leader from Pakistan who was reportedly killed while travelling in southwestern Afghanistan.

On August 28, the Taliban was accused of arresting Shaikh Abu Obaidullah Mutawakil, a well-known Salafist scholar, in the capital Kabul. A week later, Mutawakil was found dead.

The Taliban denied any part in Mutawakil’s death, but that has done little to ease the suspicions. Furthering those doubts is the fact that within weeks of Mutawakil’s killing, the Taliban had also closed more than three dozen Salafist mosques across 16 different provinces.

There is the fear that the Taliban could be borrowing from the playbook of former Afghan governments, which had been accused of unlawful detentions, extrajudicial killings and of using labels like Taliban, ISKP and al-Qaeda to go after any potential unwanted elements without providing proper evidence.

Wesley Morgan, an author and journalist who has reported extensively on the US war in Afghanistan, says there is a fear that the Taliban “could label various groups as Daesh (ISIL) that aren’t, just like the US and Kabul before them did for decades.”

Difficult task

Eliminating ISKP, a longtime Taliban foe, has proven much more difficult than the group will let on. Though, the Afghan group successfully wrested districts from ISKP in eastern Afghanistan in the past.

Civilian and Taliban sources speaking to Al Jazeera in 2019 had said that the Taliban joined with local uprising forces long before the Afghan forces ramped up their efforts to fight ISKP.

Though much of ISKP’s activity has been based in Nangarhar, neighbouring Kunar has proven to be an especially valuable province for ISKP recruitment. For decades, parts of Kunar have been home to the small population of practitioners of the Salafi school of Islam.

Experts and analysts have said that, that the Salafi interpretation of Islam is much more amenable to the hardline and highly sectarian views espoused by ISKP than the Hanafi school, which most of the country adheres to.

Taliban blamed the US for failure to prevent the airport attack saying it “took place in an area where US forces are responsible for security”.

But in the immediate aftermath of the bombings, families of the victims directed their anger at the Taliban, whom they saw as failing to prevent one of the most lethal attacks in 20 years.

“This is all your fault; you all did this. You didn’t secure anything,” a relative of one of the victims could be heard yelling at the Taliban forces at the Italian-run emergency hospital in Kabul.

Relatives of victims who spoke directly to Al Jazeera also questioned whether the Taliban could take on a group known to have carried out increasingly brazen and audacious attacks. Attacks that show no sign of letting up.

Defections

The Taliban, said Morgan, have another pressing fear that should drive them to act decisively against ISKP forces, defections.

The Taliban leadership “don’t want disaffected or rogue fighters defecting in the hopes of seeing action” with the ISIL, Morgan told Al Jazeera.

There is a serious historical precedent for this fear. One of the first leaders of ISKP forces in the southwestern provinces of Helmand and Farah was Mullah Abdul Rauf Khadem.

Before his 2014 defection, Khadem had served both in the Taliban government of the 1990s and as part of their 20-year rebellion against the US occupation. Likewise, several high-ranking commanders of the Pakistani Taliban pledged allegiance to ISIL in 2015.

Afghanistan’s UN ambassador Ghulam Isaczai, appointed by President Ashraf Ghani, pulled out of delivering an address to world leaders at the General Assembly on Monday [Andrew Kelly/Reuters]

Morgan, the expert, said taking out the Taliban’s “indisputable enemy” would prove much more enticing to their fighters than trying to sever ties with what meagre al-Qaeda forces still exist in Afghanistan.

“Targeting al-Qaeda could anger parts of their base, but taking out ISIL-K is an easy win,” he said.

Despite the Taliban’s claims that their group is unified, residents in major cities across the country have had direct run-ins with rogue Taliban fighters, who have behaved with a hostility and aggression that seems to belie the promises of the “general amnesty” espoused by their leadership.

The acting Minister of Defence Mullah Mohammad Yaqoob specifically addressed these concerns in a recent audio message, where he said, “There are some bad and corrupt people who want to join us … To fulfil their own interest or to defame us and make us look bad.”

Yaqoob said any rogue elements among the ranks would be dealt with, however, for those Taliban members who still long for battles and aggression, ISIL, a much-feared armed group that is known among Afghans for its brutality and violence, may prove to be an attractive alternative.

International recognition

Morgan, the writer and journalist, said the Taliban have another very important reason for doing everything in their power to take out the ISKP forces, international recognition.

When the Trump administration signed a peace deal with the Taliban in February 2020 it was with the assurance that the Taliban would sever ties with other armed groups, like al-Qaeda and ISIL affiliates, and that it would not allow any other armed group to use Afghan soil to target the US or its allies.

In the month since former President Ashraf Ghani fled and they took over the country, no foreign government, including longtime allies like Islamabad and Tehran, have acknowledged the Taliban as the official government of Afghanistan.

As well as facing diplomatic isolation, the Taliban has been struggling to revive its crippled economy exacerbated by cutting off its ties with global financial institutions.

Defeating ISKP, said Morgan, “is in the Taliban’s interest,” and it would be a clear indication that the Taliban, too, believes in “counterterrorism”.

Quite simply, “it’s a way to build up international goodwill,” said Morgan.

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2021-09-27 15:54:47Z
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