Cincunri Sakia

Minggu, 08 Mei 2022

Up to 60 civilians feared dead in Russian air strike on Ukrainian school - Financial Times

The commanders of the Ukrainian forces holding out against Russian troops in the Azovstal plant in Mariupol lashed out at the government in Kyiv for not doing enough to help them defend the city.

“Our government failed in the defence of Mariupol, failed in the preparation of the defence of Mariupol,” said Ilya Somoilenko, a lieutenant in the Azov regiment, the military unit that has been leading the Ukrainian resistance from a last redoubt at the vast steel works on the edge of the city.

The “authorities have been sabotaging the defence of Ukraine for eight years,” he said.

Sviatoslav Palamar, deputy commander of the Azov regiment, accused the government of “cynicism” for celebrating the evacuation of small groups of civilians when so many people had been killed in Russia’s assault on the south-eastern port city.

The two officers were speaking to reporters via Zoom from one of the bunkers at the besieged Azovstal facility.

Their comments are the first public display of dissent within the Ukrainian military which has otherwise celebrated its battlefield achievements in fending off Russia’s full-scale invasion over 10 weeks. It is also a sign of the desperation of the Ukrainian forces who are under constant artillery bombardment and repeated attempts by Russian forces to storm their redoubt underneath the steel plant.

All remaining women, children and seniors were evacuated from the steelworks in the south-eastern port city on Saturday, according to the deputy prime minister Iryna Vereshchuk. In total 300 civilians have been freed from the plant.

President Volodymyr Zelensky said Ukrainian authorities, in conjunction with the UN and International Committee of the Red Cross, were planning to evacuate all medical staff and wounded soldiers.

Zelensky has also called for Ukrainian military personnel — thought to number between several hundred and 2,000 — to be allowed to leave the vast facility. He said on Friday international diplomatic efforts were under way to secure their safe passage.

The next phase of the evacuation would be “extremely difficult” but “we do not lose hope,” Zelensky said.

Somoilenko said “surrender was not an option because Russia is not interested in our lives, is not interested in letting us live”. He appeared to criticise what he said was an attempt to negotiate with Russia over their release and said they need a “third party to intervene to extract the garrison”.

“The evacuation could be done if some people did their jobs better,” Somoilenko added.

He claimed that the defenders of Mariupol had killed 2,500 Russian soldiers and had “blocked” 25,000 troops and therefore accounted for a disproportionate share of Ukraine’s success against the invaders.

The Azov battalion has far-right origins but was incorporated into the Ukrainian armed forces in 2014 and is considered one of the best trained parts of the military.

Ukrainian officials say Moscow has been trying to crush the resistance at Azovstal so that president Vladimir Putin could present a battlefield success when Russia celebrates the Soviet victory over Nazi Germany on May 9.

Russian forces continued to attack Ukrainian positions along the 1,000km frontline and struck targets over the weekend, including Odesa. Up to 60 civilians are feared dead after a Russian air strike on a school in eastern Ukraine.

A school in Belogorovka, a village in the Donetsk region close to the front line of fighting between Russian and Ukrainian troops, was hit by a bomb on Saturday, according to the regional administration. Residents of the village were thought to be sheltering in the building and an adjacent cultural centre when it was struck.

Serhiy Haidai, governor of the Luhansk region, said as many as 60 civilians were likely to have died in the blast and ensuing fire and another 30 were rescued from under the rubble. The Financial Times could not independently confirm the scale of the casualties.

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2022-05-08 08:19:05Z
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China to install hardline former security chief as Hong Kong's new leader following one-man election - Sky News

Hong Kong's next leader will be a security chief known for his crackdown on the city's pro-democracy movement.

Former police officer John Lee was the only candidate in an "election" to choose a successor to Carrie Lam as Hong Kong's chief executive.

The 64-year-old had already been backed by more than half of the 1,500-member election committee, and he only needed a majority to win, which he did with over 1,400 votes.

Speaking on Friday, he promised a "results-oriented" approach, saying: "Hong Kong has to seize its opportunity.

"We cannot afford to wait, we cannot be late.

"We will have to consolidate Hong Kong as an international city to develop Hong Kong's potential as a free and open society, to connect the mainland of China and the world."

Mr Lee will replace Carrie Lam on 1 July.

Mr Lee was security secretary during the pro-democracy protests in 2019 and oversaw the violent response to protesters.

He supported the national security law that has seen more than 150 people arrested for offences such as subversion, secession, terrorism, and collusion with foreign forces.

He was sanctioned by the US after the bill became law in 2020, criticised for "undermining Hong Kong's autonomy and restricting the freedom of expression or assembly".

The process for choosing Mr Lee has been criticised as Beijing trying to give the impression of democracy while keeping tight control over the result.

The election committee voted in a secret ballot but they were all carefully vetted, and the city's previous four chief executives were also effectively chosen by Beijing.

'The motions of staging an election'

Yvonne Chiu, a professor at the US Naval War College who has written about Hong Kong politics, said: "Even autocracies today feel obligated to go through the motions of staging an election in order to project greater legitimacy to their own population and to the international community."

While Hong Kong's 7.4 million people still have greater freedom than those in mainland China, the Communist Party has been tightening its grip in recent years.

Dissent has been almost eliminated, with government critics being jailed, intimidated into silence, or forced to flee abroad.

Only those loyal to Beijing can hold office

Changes to Hong Kong's electoral laws last year restricted political office to those loyal to Beijing.

And young professionals make up a large number of those leaving the city - a blow to the reputation of a place once regarded as one of Asia's main business hubs.

In March, Britain removed two judges who had been appointed to Hong Kong's top courts, with Justice Secretary Dominic Raab saying that the outlawing of "free expression and honest critique of the state... flies in the face of the handover agreement we have had with China since 1997".

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2022-05-08 01:57:52Z
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Sabtu, 07 Mei 2022

Ukraine war: 'Influential mediators' involved in talks to save defenders at Mariupol's Azovstal steelworks - Sky News

Ukraine's president says he hopes fighters still trapped in dire conditions in a Mariupol steel plant can be saved.

It is thought around 2,000 Ukrainian soldiers remain in tunnels underneath the Azovstal plant, where they have been holed up for weeks as Russian forces move further into the southern port city.

They are the last pocket of resistance in an area almost destroyed, and they have repeatedly refused to surrender.

Ukraine news live: Zelenskyy says bridges with Russia are not yet 'destroyed'

However, their cause has appeared almost hopeless; many are injured, with little or no ammunition, and there are severe shortages of food, water, and electricity.

Mortars, artillery, truck-mounted rocket systems, aerial bombardment and attacks from the sea have all been used to pummel the site.

In his nightly address on Friday, President Zelenskyy said: "We are working on diplomatic options to save our military who still remain at Azovstal.

"Influential mediators are involved. Influential states." He gave no further details.

In other developments:

• Fifty more people were evacuated from the steelworks on Saturday, say pro-Russian forces
• Ukraine officials report further missile strikes on Saturday: Several hit Odesa, with four more in the wider region; while two also reportedly land near in the northern Sumy region
• Russia makes "unusual" move of not inviting foreign leaders to Victory Day celebrations on 9 May, say Western officials
• Curfews and increased street patrols imposed in a number of cities over fears attacks could increase on the patriotic holiday
• President Biden authorises shipment of another $150m in military assistance, including artillery rounds and radar systems
• Russian troops continue to struggle in the Donbas region as Ukraine says it repelled 11 attacks there
• Five villages and part of a sixth recaptured in the northeastern Kharkiv region, Ukraine says

More people were evacuated from the Mariupol steelworks on Saturday, according to pro-Russian forces.

Defence officials from the self-declared Donetsk People's Republic said on Telegram that 50 had made it out.

Another 50 are also said to have been evacuated on Friday afternoon, including 11 children, and taken to a reception centre in a nearby Russian-controlled village.

About 500 people have been evacuated from the plant and other areas of the city in recent days.

Mariupol's mayor said earlier this week that 200 civilians were still trapped at the plant - a fraction of the 100,000 thought to still be in the city from its pre-war population of 400,000.

Subscribe to the Ukraine War Diaries on Apple Podcasts, Google Podcasts, Spotify and Spreaker

President Zelenskyy also spoke at an event hosted by the Chatham House think tank in London on Friday, and said there was still the possibility of negotiations with Russia.

He said bridges between the two countries were not yet "destroyed" and that arrangements were needed for talks to "stop the killing".

But the president said any talks could only take place if Moscow withdrew its troops, adding that he hadn't been elected to lead a "mini-Ukraine of some kind".

"They have to fall back," he added.

"In that situation we will be able to start discussing things normally."

He said that "despite the fact that they are destroying all our bridges, I think not all the bridges are yet destroyed".

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2022-05-07 13:18:45Z
1402967704

North Korea tests suspected submarine-launched missile ahead of South Korea inauguration - Sky News

North Korea has test-fired a suspected submarine-launched ballistic missile just days before South Korea inaugurates a new leader who has vowed to take a hard line against Pyongyang.

Seoul said the rocket was launched early on Saturday from near the eastern port city of Sinpo, where the North has a submarine base.

Japan also confirmed the launch, with the country's prime minister Fumio Kishida ordering officials to prepare for all "unforeseeable situations" in response.

It comes ahead of the inauguration of the new conservative South Korean president Yoon Suk-yeol, who has vowed to boost Seoul's missile capability and strengthen its military alliance with Washington to deal with the threat posed by the North.

US President Joe Biden is to visit South Korea and meet with him on 21 May.

Earlier in the week, North Korea fired a ballistic missile from near its capital into the sea off its east coast after Kim Jong Un vowed to develop its nuclear arsenal "at the fastest possible speed".

The latest launch is thought to be North Korea's 15th round of missile firings this year, including its first test of an intercontinental ballistic missile since 2017 in March that demonstrated the potential to reach targets across the US.

There are also indications Pyongyang is preparing a site, where it had conducted its sixth and last nuclear test in September 2017, with a view to another possible explosive trial.

Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul, said: "A seventh nuclear test would be the first since September 2017 and raise tensions on the Korean Peninsula, increasing dangers of miscalculation and miscommunication between the Kim regime and the incoming Yoon administration."

North Korea has been exploiting a favourable environment to press its weapons ambitions with the UN Security Council divided and preoccupied over Russia's war on Ukraine.

The unusually fast pace in testing highlights a brinkmanship aimed at forcing the US to accept the idea of the North as a nuclear power and remove crippling sanctions, according to experts.

Mr Kim has used recent missile tests to warn the North could proactively use its nuclear weapons if threatened or provoked, which observers believe could herald an escalatory doctrine that would increase concerns of South Korea and Japan.

Pyongyang has been pushing hard to acquire the ability to fire nuclear-armed missiles from submarines, which in theory would bolster its deterrent by ensuring the capability to retaliate after a nuclear attack.

Ballistic missile submarines would also add a maritime threat to the North's growing land-based arsenal.

However, experts say the heavily sanctioned nation would need more time, resources and technological improvements to build a fleet of submarines able to avoid detection and execute strikes.

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2022-05-07 09:49:55Z
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Jumat, 06 Mei 2022

Putin apologises to Israel for minister's 'Jewish Hitler' jibe - The Times

President Putin apologised to Israel yesterday for remarks made by his foreign minister about Adolf Hitler having “Jewish blood”.

The rare apology by the Russian leader was made in a phone call to Naftali Bennett, the prime minister, to congratulate Israel on the 74th anniversary of its independence.

The diplomatic crisis between the two countries began on Sunday when Sergey Lavrov, in an interview with the Italian television company Mediasat, said: “So what if [Ukrainian President] Zelensky is Jewish? The fact does not negate the Nazi elements in Ukraine. I believe that Hitler also had Jewish blood.”

He added that “some of the worst antisemites are Jews”.

Israeli leaders reacted with fury to Lavrov’s interview. Bennett said that “the goal of such lies is

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2022-05-06 11:00:00Z
1408736967

Kamis, 05 Mei 2022

Russian economy could weather impact of EU oil ban - Financial Times

EU leaders’ plans to impose a bloc-wide embargo on Russian oil carry political heft. But some analysts believe it will not deliver the intended blow to Russia’s economy.

Brussels proposed a measure on Wednesday that would ban all imports of Russian oil by the end of the year. The plan, which still needs to win the backing of all 27 member states, is part of the sixth package of EU sanctions intended to undermine the Kremlin’s ability to wage war on Ukraine by hitting the Russian economy.

But Sergey Aleksashenko, the former deputy governor of Russia’s central bank, believes the ban is “not very powerful” as a measure, as prices for crude have risen substantially, counteracting the costs of losing the European market.

The Russian budget is heavily dependent on revenues from oil exports, which accounted for 45 per cent on its total income in 2021. However, the government will break even if Russian producers can sell their oil for $44 per barrel or more.

Sanctions have — at least on the face of it — made that possibility more, not less, likely. Russia’s key crude blend, Urals, is trading at $70 a barrel, and though that constitutes a hefty discount compared with Brent, it is far above Russia’s budgetary needs.

The price of Brent, the oil industry benchmark, rose 5 per cent to $110.39 a barrel over the course of Wednesday following the announcement that the EU had proposed a ban.

If an embargo is agreed, oil prices are likely to head even higher, allowing Russia comfortably to absorb the blow while placing a serious strain on Europe, which relies on the country for 30 per cent of its oil.

Asian buyers are the most likely recipient of any surplus of Russian crude. China’s independent refiners are already buying more from producers in the country, though big state-owned commodity traders are shying away from purchases because of western sanctions.

But analysts questioned whether a pivot to Asia was so easy to achieve. Sixty per cent of Russia’s oil exports go to Europe — three times the quantity that goes to China — and pipeline infrastructure is predominantly geared towards carrying oil west.

According to Craig Kennedy, an associate at Harvard University’s Davis Center, it remains unclear just “how much appetite” countries such as China have for importing Russian oil at a scale that would fully absorb current EU exports.

Capacity to carry oil to Asia by rail is even more highly constrained than usual, after an EU coal import ban already sent exporters scrambling to secure rail capacity to send additional coal volumes east.

“Russia will face infrastructure bottlenecks, uncertain demand and logistical challenges [to export oil to Asia],” said Maria Shagina, visiting senior fellow at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs. “Russia will continue selling oil to China and India but they will not be able to fully compensate the loss of the European market.”

Shagina added that while oil revenue would continue to flow to the Russian government, the industry “will no longer be the cash cow it historically was”.

Sofya Donets, Russia and CIS economist at Renaissance Capital, said that while the immediate impact of the embargo was bearable for the Russian economy, the difficulties involved in pivoting sales to Asia meant the long-term impact could be more severe.

“In the short term this hit is largely an expected one, and compensated for by the spike in oil prices,” said Donets. “In the long term, it will hit economic activity and the value of the rouble. But most of these impacts will become a reality with some delay in 2023.”

Another part of the EU sanctions package — a limit on shipping insurance on vessels carrying Russian crude — is also significant.

Robin Brooks, Institute of International Finance chief economist, said: “Sanctions on maritime insurance will cut tanker traffic lots, as few will ship without.”

Kennedy agreed, pointing out that Russia was “unlikely to secure nearly enough tankers” to move all its EU oil exports to Asia, especially if “marine insurers, banks, and vessel owners” refused to do business because of the sanctions risk.

Europe, meanwhile, is expected to increase its consumption of Middle Eastern oil, but that could prove challenging. Most European refiners are set up to process the heavier Russian Urals crude blend rather than the lighter Middle Eastern kind.

Processing a different grade of crude oil may require adjusting refineries but the sort of investment needed for that to happen would go counter to environmental goals, a senior oil executive said.

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2022-05-05 04:01:47Z
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Russian economy could weather impact of EU oil ban - Financial Times

EU leaders’ plans to impose a bloc-wide embargo on Russian oil carry political heft. But some analysts believe it will not deliver the intended blow to Russia’s economy.

The price of Brent, the oil industry benchmark, rose 5 per cent to $110.39 a barrel over the course of Wednesday following the announcement that the EU had proposed a ban.

Shagina added that while oil revenue would continue to flow to the Russian government, the industry “will no longer be the cash cow it historically was”.

Another part of the EU sanctions package — a limit on shipping insurance on vessels carrying Russian crude — is also significant.

Robin Brooks, Institute of International Finance chief economist, said: “Sanctions on maritime insurance will cut tanker traffic lots, as few will ship without.”

Processing a different grade of crude oil may require adjusting refineries but the sort of investment needed for that to happen would go counter to environmental goals, a senior oil executive said.

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2022-05-05 04:01:01Z
1405896528

Minggu, 08 Mei 2022

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