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By EMILIO CASALICCHIO
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Good Wednesday Morning. This is Emilio Casalicchio taking the London Playbook baton from Eleni Courea.
DRIVING THE DAY
BOJO WANTS MOJO: Boris Johnson has his fingers crossed this morning that rebel Conservatives roar with approval when he stands for PMQs at noon. The high-stakes Commons showdown will be his first proper public appearance since 40 percent of his troops voted to oust him as PM. And whether his backbench critics show enthusiastic support or cross their arms in silent protest will offer an indication of what the coming weeks and months might look like, and whether Johnson will survive the current storm.
Focusing minds: Labour leader Keir Starmer will no doubt point to Conservative backbenchers who spoke out against Johnson ahead of the vote and argue the Tories are divided and rudderless. But if there’s one thing that can help unite the governing side — even if just for half an hour — it’s jeers from their true political enemies. “In a PMQs confrontation with the opposition I think most colleagues will rally behind the PM,” one leading rebel told Playbook last night.
But but but: The same person said that although critics accept Johnson won the vote, albeit with dismal numbers (check out this great Mirror widget showing the positions of all his MPs) he doesn’t have long to show he will deliver on promises of change — both in his personal conduct and his policy direction. His chance of success is illustrated in this damning Times piece from former Cabinet Minister David Davis, who argues the PM gets neither the big calls right nor the smaller details, and is at risk of running toward ludicrous or undeliverable announcements as a quick fix to shore up his public standing.
Promises, promises: The thing most Tories are eager to see delivered is (surprise, surprise) the Johnson promise to cut taxes. The PM is said to have made the pledge in a desperate plea to stop his troops shooting him. “Having a tax burden lower than the highest in 70 years would be a start,” one MP told my POLITICO colleagues Tim Ross and Eleni Courea for their write-up about why “limpet” BoJo thinks he can cling on.
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Sure enough: The Mail (not online) and Times both talk up the pressure on the PM, including from within his Cabinet, to cut personal taxes as soon as possible. But the latter paper notes that Chancellor Rishi Sunak is reluctant to do so at his next economic update in the fall, and will instead prioritize cutting business taxes.
Indeed: In his address to the Onward think tank last night, Sunak made clear he was focused on just that. “We will be setting out a range of tax cuts and reforms to incentivize businesses to invest more, train more and innovate more,” he said. (Full spotted list for the Onward event below.) Sunak sets out more of his thinking in a piece for the Telegraph this morning.
Indeed again: On page two of the Sun, Kate Ferguson, Harry Cole and Natasha Clark have details of what will be in the PM’s planned economic speech next week. Again, the focus appears to be on corporation tax rather than income tax. The trio also note that the PM will announce a big prefab homes drive in his housing speech tomorrow, as well as hopes to make childcare cheaper by easing regulation on nursery staff numbers. Red meat for the rebels, but will it be enough?
The problem is … it’s not clear what the mechanism is for Conservative critics to force Johnson out if he doesn’t fulfill their desires. The same MP who put Johnson on notice above argued that if 180 rebels (the number needed to boot the PM out in a ballot) submit fresh letters of no confidence to 1922 committee Chair Graham Brady, the rules would no doubt be changed to allow a second vote sooner than the 12-month wait currently required.
Don’t Roger that: Others were dismissive about the prospect of rule changes. Even arch Johnson critic Roger Gale told Playbook he wasn’t in favor of “moving the goalposts in the middle of the game … even if that’s what the PM did with the ministerial code.” Gale said the only routes to removing Johnson now are if a Cabinet revolt forces him out, or if the privileges committee finds he knowingly misled the Commons over lockdown parties in Downing Street, giving him little choice but to quit. (Bear in mind the privileges committee still hasn’t started that probe.)
Not a limpet for nothing: Don’t forget, Johnson didn’t quit after being fined by the police for breaching lockdown laws … so Playbook is doubtful a reprimand from the privileges committee will make much difference. “He never left any of his wives — they always ended up divorcing him,” one Tory MP explained to Tim and Eleni of the three-times married prime minister. “It’s the same with No. 10. He’ll never leave of his own accord. The party will have to kick him out.”
Another option … would be to make governing all-but impossible. In the Guardian, Bree Allegretti writes that some rebels are mulling “vote strikes” to block government business. “One likened the situation the prime minister faced to a scene from The Simpsons, in which the character Sideshow Bob is encircled by rakes and continually hit by them as he steps in different directions,” Allegretti notes.
FWIW: Gale dismissed the “vote strike” suggestion, arguing Conservatives will still vote for conservative legislation — although it’s clear that rebels will be more emboldened to go rogue on plans not to their liking, possibly on things like, err, a super-controversial plan to override the Brexit agreement?
On the other hand: Team Boris could of course also attempt to take back control of the troops via a reign of terror. One government insider told Playbook the PM was “after the blood” of the rebels, adding: “The next few days are going to be interesting.” In the Times, Steven Swinford and Henry Zeffman write that the PM is being urged to sack the 13 ministers who haven’t been clear how they voted in the confidence ballot (full list here h/t Tom Larkin.)
On that note: The variously rumored reshuffle isn’t looking imminent, according to murmurings inside Downing Street. One government aide said No. 10 seems to be flip-flopping about a reshuffle — which isn’t making for efficient governance. “The problem is every time there’s reshuffle chat, the civil service all down tools and start preparing slide decks,” the person said.
Let’s be friends reshuffle: This might sound nuts, but some around Johnson are urging him to promote Jeremy Hunt (the PM’s former leadership rival and the most senior voice to call for him to be ousted this week) to the role of chancellor, according to the Tele’s Ben Riley Smith and Tony Diver in their splash this morning. The tale, readers will be shocked to hear, sparked swift derision from other Johnson allies (h/t John Stevens.)
Tomorrow’s Tele front: Hell to freeze over.
Let’s not be friends reshuffle: The PM has warned ministers to get their acts together or face the sack, according to Seb Payne and George Parker in the FT. The irony was not lost on Twitter.
Or let’s just all be nice to each other? Junior minister (and alleged leadership hopeful) Penny Mordaunt has also written for the Telegraph calling for the Tories to stop fighting each other, while also happening to mention Brexit and GP services, among other things, in what is clearly not a leadership pitch. At least the piece doesn’t read like a government press release, as most ministerial op-eds do. Worth a look.
The problem is: It’s kind of impossible to know where the Conservative civil war will lurch next because the rebels aren’t a unified faction. The fight to topple Theresa May was led and organized, whereas this fight isn’t. “The disorganization is very dangerous for Boris because there’s no one he can ask to call off the dogs,” one minister told Playbook last night. “How do you kill something that isn’t quite there to kill?”
MEANWHILE, IN BREXIT
BREACH OF PROTOCOL: When (or even whether) the government brings forward its Northern Ireland protocol-busting legislation is still to be determined. It had been scheduled for today before things took a less certain turn, and now it could be tomorrow or … at some point in the future, according to government officials. The Times reckons it will appear next week.
When law isn’t legal: Adam Payne from PolHome has seen correspondence from “a senior figure advising the government on legal matters” arguing the plan would be a breach of international law — in contrast to government claims. The person dismissed the ministerial claim that there is no alternative to unilateral suspension of parts of the Brexit agreement.
Not impressed: Government officials gave the story short shrift last night, insisting the existing position has not changed.
Could be one for resignation watch: Sam Coates from Sky News meanwhile reports that James Eadie, the government’s independent barrister on national legal issues, hasn’t even been consulted on whether the protocol plans would break international law — but has thrown in his 2 cents nevertheless to argue the ministerial position is a bit thin. A government official told Playbook Coates is on the money.
What the bill looks like: The U.K. will propose a “dual regulatory regime” which will allow goods produced in Great Britain into Northern Ireland and vice versa with no checks, according to a readout that reached Tony Connelly from RTE. In a looong thread, worryingly reminiscent of the 2018/19 Brexit wars, Connelly explains that the government will ask businesses to, err, work out how the plan can be put into practise. Government officials didn’t push back too hard on the thread but said some of the context was missing.
Want more protocol? DUP leader Jeffrey Donaldson will be ranting about it at a Lords committee just after 3 p.m. Watch it here.
BREXIT SCOOP: Science Minister George Freeman (fresh from wrangling with hacks over whether he supported the PM in the no-confidence vote) will warn the EU that Britain will set up rival science programs if Brussels continues to block access to its Horizon scheme and other research clubs in protest at the Northern Ireland protocol row.
Freeman of speech: During a speech in Brussels, Freeman will argue that science should be above politics, after the European Commission was explicit in linking its stalling on U.K. access to Horizon to the British demands over the protocol (as revealed in a POLITICO scoop last month.)
Fighting talk: “The EU’s foot dragging is causing significant uncertainty to both British and European researchers, and time is running out,” a government insider close to the issue said.
LABOUR LAND
SCOOP — MANDY INTERVENES: Playbook’s Eleni Courea has a preview of a major speech Peter Mandelson is giving in Durham today, in which he warns his party that it needs to come up with a proper economic plan if it hopes to win the next election.
Get on with it, lads: The New Labour architect will say that while the party has come a long way since 2019, Labour should get on and start developing some well-thought-out policies. In an address to the North East Chamber of Commerce, he will warn Keir Starmer against announcing expensive plans without doing “hard thinking.”
Time to step up the game: In a clear swipe at the lack of depth in Labour’s policy development so far, Mandelson will point to the Labour pledge to spend £28 billion a year for 10 years on the climate transition. “This only translates into new jobs and prosperity in the U.K. if we are investing in U.K. businesses,” he will argue. “Just announcing a massive spend and a big policy goal does not in itself deliver economic growth.”
Day of the Labour interventions: Meanwhile, Starmer’s former director of communications Ben Nunn (who was spotted catching up with old colleagues in PCH yesterday) has written a piece for POLITICO arguing that rather than taking a back seat while the Tories rip themselves apart, Starmer should “frame the government’s crisis on Labour’s terms, in a way that speaks directly to the country.”
On that note: The Guardian’s Jess Elgot has a great piece looking at the internal Labour soul-searching about how the opposition should plan its next moves against the Tories now that the public is turning against the PM.
TODAY IN WESTMINSTER
HOUSE OF COMMONS: Sits from 11.30 a.m. with women and equalities questions followed by PMQs at noon … After any UQs or statements, MPs will move onto Michael Gove’s Leveling Up and Regeneration Bill … and then Labour’s Afzal Khan has an adjournment debate on parks and green spaces in his Manchester constituency.
HOUSE OF LORDS: Sits from 3 p.m. with questions on PM meetings with the devolved government FMs, support for domestic abuse victims and skills for farmers … Followed by the committee stage of the Schools Bill.
Committee corridor: Media Minister Julia Lopez and Health Minister Syed Kamall are up at the science and tech committee for questions on privacy and data (9 a.m.) … The work and pensions committee will look at protecting pension savers with former Pensions Ministers Ros Altmann and Steve Webb (9.15 a.m.) … The public accounts committee will hear from senior Treasury officials — including perm sec Tom Scholar — on the government’s accounts (1.30 p.m.) … and the joint committee on human rights will look at the human rights implications of the government’s Rwanda asylum plans with legal experts (3 p.m.).
DOWN WITH THE KIDS: The PM is set to make a speech to coincide with London fashion week tonight.
MEANWHILE, IN THE REAL WORLD: The big thing lots of normal people will be focused on this morning is the prospect of major rail strikes coming down the track. The Mail splashes on the union announcement. Here’s the government response from Transport Secretary Grant Shapps. The Sun front page also notes the continued air travel chaos and petrol hitting £2 a liter.
WHAT THE GOVERNMENT WANTS TO TALK ABOUT: Health Secretary Sajid Javid is announcing a shake-up in NHS management as he accepts the recommendations of a review into getting better leaders into difficult roles. The review found evidence of discrimination, bullying and blame culture in the health and social care service and a lack of equal opportunities for management to get training or for staff to get promoted.
Now hear this: Javid is on the broadcast round to discuss the announcement. But expect more questions about the PM’s position (and the health sec’s own ambitions) than the NHS HR stuff. Javid will also do a Commons statement later.
UP IN SMOKE: The Guardian’s Jess Elgot hears a row is brewing over a controversial recommendation — set to be made tomorrow — that the legal smoking age is raised to 21.
PORK BARREL LATEST: The public accounts committee in a new report this morning condemns ministers for only finalizing principles for awarding leveling-up funds once they knew the identities of shortlisted bidders. The committee said the government has “past form” for failing to dish out its leveling-up bounties in an impartial way.
WHILE WESTMINSTER WAS DISTRACTED … The government announced that a key northern portion of HS2 is being scrapped. The eagle-eyed Rob Parsons of the Northern Agenda newsletter spotted the written statement released at 7.30 p.m. Monday evening.
BY-ELECTION ROUND-UP: Over in Tiverton and Honiton, the Tories have mocked up a lookalike Lib Dem election leaflet that definitely isn’t a Lib Dem election leaflet … The Conservative candidate has finally backed Boris Johnson after keeping quiet about the Tory leader for a little too long for comfort … and the leader of the East Devon District Council (who was an independent) has joined the Lib Dems to back them at the vote.
STATE OF THE UNION: Lawyers working for the Scottish government cleared the SNP’s ministers to begin work on building the case for independence and prepare for a second referendum, newly released legal advice shows. What the advice — which the Scottish government initially refused to publish — doesn’t show is the important bit: whether Holyrood actually has the power to legislate for a referendum without a transfer of power from Westminster. Details here from the Scotsman’s Conor Matchett, who pushed for the advice to be released.
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UKRAINE UPDATE
DIGEST: Volodymyr Zelenskyy told the FT conference that Ukraine is “going to suffer more losses” due to inferior equipment, as he reinforced calls for more Western support. The president also said he was open to peace talks, though argued they would have to be conducted face to face with Vladimir Putin … The bodies of some of the Azovstal fighters killed defending Mariupol have arrived in Kyiv, according to some of the soldiers’ families. More than a thousand Ukrainian soldiers captured in Mariupol were reportedly transferred to Russia … Kyiv said last night no agreement has been reached with Russia or Turkey to allow the safe passage of its grain ships in the Black Sea … Two Brits captured by Russian forces in Ukraine — Aiden Aslin and Shaun Pinner — appeared in court yesterday, reportedly charged with being mercenaries.
RETURN OF THE MERK: Fresh from being called out by Zelenskyy in April for making concessions to Russia, former German Chancellor Angela Merkel used her first public interview since leaving office to mount a defense of her legacy on Russia and Ukraine. Merkel argued Putin would have invaded Ukraine earlier if she and other allies hadn’t blocked Ukraine’s 2008 NATO bid and said she didn’t blame herself for Russian aggression. POLITICO’s Hans von der Burchard has the story.
Merked: In the packed Berlin theater where the interview took place, Merkel also recalled an anecdote from meeting Putin in Sochi, in 2007. Back then, Merkel said, Putin told her that the fall of the Soviet Union had been the biggest catastrophe. Merkel, who was raised in former communist east Germany, had replied: “For me it was the most beautiful thing that could have happened.”
Scholzed: Merkel’s successor Olaf Scholz was also forced to defend his record on Ukraine last night at a press conference in Vilnius, where he argued Berlin is providing military support “more intensively than almost anyone else.” Germany is actually ranked fifth in terms of overall military support to Ukraine, according to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy’s tracker.
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MEDIA ROUND
Health Secretary Sajid Javid broadcast round: Sky News (7.05 a.m.) … Times Radio (7.20 a.m.) … LBC (7.50 a.m.) … Today program (8.15 a.m.) … ITV GMB (8.20 a.m.) … talkTV (8.50 a.m.).
Shadow Policing Minister Sarah Jones: GB News (7.45 a.m.) … Sky News (8.05 a.m.) … Times Radio (8.35 a.m.) … talkTV (9.05 a.m.).
Also on the Today program: Ian Blackford (6.50 a.m.) … Chair of Rail Delivery Group Steve Montgomery (7.10 a.m.) … John Bell, regius professor of medicine at the University of Oxford (7.50 a.m.).
Also on Good Morning Britain: RMT chief Mick Lynch (6.40 a.m.) … Journalist Petronella Wyatt (7.20 a.m.).
Also on Kay Burley (Sky News): Former senior Armed Forces official Richard Barrons (7.30 a.m.) … Tory peer Ros Altmann (8.30 a.m.).
Also on Nick Ferrari at Breakfast (LBC): RMT Assistant General Secretary Eddie Dempsey (7.10 a.m.) … Former Tory MEP David Campbell Bannerman (8.10 a.m.).
Also on Times Radio breakfast: Former Justice Secretary David Gauke (8.05 a.m.) … RMT Assistant General Secretary Eddie Dempsey (8.20 a.m.).
Also on talkTV breakfast show: Tory MP Miriam Cates (7.05 a.m.) … Tory peer Daniel Finkelstein (8.05 a.m.) … RMT Assistant General Secretary Eddie Dempsey (9.44 a.m.).
Politics Live (BBC Two 11.15 a.m.): Tory MP Jake Berry … Labour MP Emma Hardy … Yahoo’s Nadine Batchelor-Hunt … Former Tory SpAd Mo Hussein … Shadow Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson.
Cross Question with Iain Dale (LBC 8 p.m.): Tory MP Anna Firth and Ipsos U.K. chief Kelly Beaver.
Peston (Twitter 9 p.m. and ITV 10.45 p.m.): Guests TBC.
Reviewing the papers tonight: Sky News (10.30 p.m. and 11.30 p.m.): The Mail’s Andrew Pierce and the Mirror’s Kevin Maguire.
TODAY’S FRONT PAGES
(Click on the publication’s name to see its front page.)
Daily Express: Fighting back! Boris’ tax blitz to silence rebels.
Daily Mail: Hard-left rail union strike to paralyse Britain.
Daily Mirror: Can’t someone sort this out?
Daily Star: Saturday night thunder fever.
Financial Times: Stalemate with Russia ‘not an option’, Zelenskyy tells west.
Huffpost UK: Revealed — Johnson’s imperial death march.
i: Johnson faces Tory rebel war of attrition.
Metro: Total rail shutdown.
POLITICO UK: The ‘limpet’ — Why Boris Johnson believes he can cling on.
PoliticsHome: Concerns raised at top of government over legality of Northern Ireland Protocol Bill.
The Daily Telegraph: Johnson urged to make Hunt chancellor.
The Guardian: Tory MPs plot ‘vote strikes’ to keep Johnson on ropes.
The Independent: PM is warned strongman act will backfire with MPs.
The Sun: The back garden’s nice this time of year, Bob — Petrol hits £2 a litre.
The Times: Cut taxes if you want to survive, PM urged.
LONDON CALLING
WESTMINSTER WEATHER: 🌤🌤🌤 Sunny looking day. Highs of 22C.
NEW GIG: Robyn Vinter is joining the Guardian’s northern desk. Here’s the tweet.
SPOTTED: At the Onward event Rishi Sunak spoke at last night … Conservative MPs Neil O’Brien … Alex Burghart … Claire Coutinho … Katherine Fletcher … Selaine Saxby … Greg Clark … Jo Gideon … Miriam Cates … Ruth Edwards … Richard Holden … Damian Green … Anthony Browne … James Wild … Jesse Norman … Robbie Moore … and John Lamont … Peers Danny Finkelstein … James O’Shaughnessy … Catherine Fall … and Kate Rock … Conservative bigwigs Isaac Levido and Rachel Wolf … and top pollster James Johnson.
SPOTTED LATER: Going into the Carlton Club … one Rishi Sunak. His PPS Craig Williams was having a birthday bash in the swanky club.
MORE SPOTTED: At the Italian Embassy summer party in Mayfair … Italian Ambassador to London Raffaele Trombetta … Top press aide at the EU Embassy in London Federico Bianchi … Senior Italian Embassy aide Alberto La Bella … Italian Embassy press chief Aurora Russi … Repubblica legend Antonello Guerrera … Bloomberg’s Francine Lacqua … Conservative MP Alberto Costa and his staffer Will Bateman … Conservative MP Ellie Reeves … Europe Minister James Cleverly … and Chair of the 1922 committee Graham Brady, whom everyone was eavesdropping on but he was only complimenting the risotto.
BIRTHDAYS: Newcastle-upon-Tyne North MP Cat McKinnell … Former Housing Minister Kris Hopkins … Former Boris Johnson spinner Will Walden.
PLAYBOOK COULDN’T HAPPEN WITHOUT: My editor Zoya Sheftalovich, reporter Andrew McDonald and producer Grace Stranger.
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2022-06-08 06:33:57Z
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