The far-right Sweden Democrats appear to be close to causing a huge upset in the country's neck-and-neck election cliffhanger.
The populist anti-immigration party, which emerged from the neo-Nazi movement in the late 1980s, has increased its polling at each of the past nine elections, and on Sunday looked to have gained 21% of this year's vote, according to near-final results.
If it transpires that has happened after the full count, they will become the country's second-biggest party.
Then, a bloc of right-wing parties, including the Sweden Democrats, is expected to defeat a left-wing bloc headed by Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson and form government.
However, the result was so close the election authority said it would not be known before Wednesday when some uncounted votes, including those cast abroad, have been tallied.
Exit polls at first predicted victory for the incumbent left-wing coalition, but results later suggested the right-wing bloc could narrowly win.
Image:Moderate party leader Ulf Kristersson may have celebrated prematurely after an exit poll said he had won. Pic: AP
Currently, with 94% of votes counted, the right-wing bloc appears to hold a lead of under one percentage point over the ruling centre-left group led by Prime Minister Ms Andersson.
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Sweden Democrats leader Jimmie Akesson told his supporters at an event in Stockholm he was "proud" to be on track to become the country's second-biggest party.
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While his party has its roots in the white nationalist movement, years ago it began expelling extremists.
But despite its rebranding, voters long viewed it as unacceptable and other parties shunned it.
That has changed in recent times, and pundits say its result in this election shows just how far it has come in gaining acceptance. During the campaign, its tough policies on law and order and immigration started to draw support from the centre-right.
Mr Akesson is unlikely to become prime minister even if the right-wing bloc wins the largest number of seats. The four parties in the group will select the cabinet positions and Moderate Party leader Ulf Kristersson is the current favourite to take the role, but will have a tricky line to walk between all parties - particularly one that has polled more votes than his.
A nationalist party condemned by Sweden’s centre-left government as “neo-fascists” has become the country’s second-largest, pushing the opposition rightwing into a slender lead in parliamentary elections that remain too close to call.
A preliminary result is not expected until Wednesday, but with 94 per cent of votes counted, the rightwing bloc held a lead of under one percentage point over the ruling centre-left group led by Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson.
The anti-immigration Sweden Democrats, shunned for most of the past decade, are certain to be the largest party on the right, trailing only Andersson’s Social Democrats, who have come first in every election since 1917.
“Our ambition is to sit in government,” said Jimmie Åkesson, leader of the Sweden Democrats.
The party, which has its roots in the neo-Nazi movement, was scorned by all other parties until the latest parliament, when its tough policies on law and order and immigration started to draw support from the centre-right.
An unusually harsh campaign focused on gang crime and immigration after a record number of fatal shootings in troubled suburbs pushed Sweden to the top of such statistics in Europe.
If the rightwing lead is confirmed, the four parties in the group will face a tricky task to form a coherent government owing to a wafer-thin majority and infighting.
Ulf Kristersson, leader of the mainstream centre-right Moderates, which slipped to third place for the first time since 1976, is the favourite to become prime minister, but will have to deal with an emboldened nationalist party that received more votes.
“I stand ready to do everything I can to create a new, stable and effective government for all of Sweden and all citizens,” he said early on Monday morning.
Nicholas Aylott, senior lecturer at Södertörn University, called the results “historic” for the Sweden Democrats and said it would be an “absolute body blow” for the Moderates. He added: “Stable, strong, decisive government is probably not to be expected [from the election], but not chaos either.”
The country’s politics have been tumultuous since the arrival of the Sweden Democrats in parliament in 2010. The ruling Social Democrats have been forced twice to govern with opposition rightwing budgets, while Andersson herself had to resign as prime minister last year after only seven hours in the post, before being re-elected a week later.
The Social Democrats campaigned less on issues and more on the image of Andersson, who only became prime minister in November and is by far the most popular politician in the country.
Two of the biggest recent controversies — whether Sweden should join Nato, and the country’s handling of Covid-19 — barely featured in a campaign that was instead defined by tough pledges on immigration and crime and an intense late focus on sky-high electricity prices.
Despite ruling for eight years, the Social Democrats increased their share of the vote to 30.5 per cent, up more than 2 percentage points from 2018. The Sweden Democrats were the biggest winners, increasing their share by more than 3 percentage points to 20.7 per cent, while the Moderates fell back slightly to 19.1 per cent.
The five smaller parties in parliament on the left and right will retain their status after scoring 4-7 per cent each.
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Ukraine's military says its forces have retaken over 3,000 sq km (1,158 sq miles) during a rapid counter-offensive in eastern Ukraine.
The remarkable advance, if confirmed, means Kyiv's forces have tripled their stated gains in little over 48 hours.
On Thursday evening, President Zelensky put the figure at 1,000 sq km, and then 2,000 sq km on Saturday evening.
The BBC cannot verify the Ukrainian figures, and journalists have been denied access to the frontlines.
On Saturday, the eastern counter-attack saw Ukrainian troops enter the vital Russian-held supply towns of Izyum and Kupiansk.
But UK defence officials have warned that fighting has continued outside those towns. And officials in Kyiv said Ukrainian forces were still fighting to gain control of a number of settlements around Izyum.
Russia's defence ministry confirmed its forces' retreat from Izyum itself and Kupiansk, which it said would allow its forces "to regroup" in territory held by Moscow-backed separatists.
The Russian ministry also confirmed the withdrawal of troops from a third key town, Balaklyia, in order to "bolster efforts" on the Donetsk front. Ukrainian forces entered the town on Friday.
At the same time, the head of the Russia-installed administration in the Kharkiv region recommended that its people evacuate to Russia "to save lives".
Unverified footage on social media appeared to show long queues of traffic building up at border crossings. The governor of the Belgorod border region in Russia, Vyacheslav Gladkov, said "thousands" of people had crossed into the country.
Mr Gladkov said on Saturday that mobile catering, heating, and medical assistance would be available to people fleeing the Ukrainian advance.
Meanwhile, Gen Valerii Zaluzhnyi, commander of Ukraine's military, said his forces had advanced to within 50km (31 miles) of the Russian border.
The pace of the counter-attack has caught the Russians off guard, and Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov - a staunch supporter of President Vladimir Putin - appeared to question the Russian retreat.
In a message posted to Telegram, Mr Kadyrov said if there was not a change in Russian fortunes, he would be forced to question the country's leadership to explain the situation.
But Russians still hold around a fifth of the country, and few imagine a swift end to the war. And Mr Kadyrov himself insisted "Russia will win" and "Nato weapons" would be "crushed".
In an interview with the Financial Times, Ukraine's defence minister Oleksii Reznikov hailed his troops, but warned of the potential for a Russian counter-attack.
"A counter-offensive liberates territory and after that you have to control it and be ready to defend it," Mr Reznikov said. "Of course, we have to be worried, this war has worried us for years."
The Ukrainian advances - if held - would be the most significant frontline changes since Russia withdrew from areas around Kyiv in April.
Kupiansk served as Russia's main eastern supply hub and the loss of Izyum - which Moscow spent over a month trying to take at the beginning of the war - would be seen as a major humiliation for President Vladimir Putin.
According to one military expert, the advance marks the first time since World War Two that whole Russian units have been lost.
The gains will also be seen as a sign that Ukraine's army has the capacity to retake occupied territory - crucial as Kyiv continues to ask hard-pressed Western allies for military support.
Ukraine's Foreign Minister, Dmytro Kuleba, said the latest developments showed its forces could end the war faster with more Western weapons.
Ukraine launched its counter-offensive in the east earlier this week, while international attention was focused on an anticipated advance near the southern city of Kherson.
Analysts believe Russia redirected some of its most seasoned troops to defend the city.
But as well as gaining ground in the east, Ukraine is also making gains in the south, an official said.
Nataliya Gumenyuk, a spokesperson for the Ukrainian army's southern command, said they had advanced "between two and several dozens of kilometres" along that front.
But Russian forces fighting on the southern front are said to have dug into defensive positions, and Ukraine's troops have faced heavy resistance since the offensive began.
And in Kharkiv itself, one person was killed and several homes damaged on Saturday as Russian rocket fire hit the city, according to local officials.
Elsewhere, Ukraine's energy regulator, Energoatom, says the last reactor at the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant has been shut down, and is not generating electricity.
The reactor had been generating energy for the plant itself for three days - it was shut down when external power was restored.
The Ukrainian operator said that to prevent an emergency, it was essential that shelling of the power lines connecting the station to the national grid be halted.
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Ukraine's military says its forces have retaken over 3,000 sq km (1,158 sq miles) during a rapid counter-offensive in eastern Ukraine.
The remarkable advance, if confirmed, means Kyiv's forces have tripled their stated gains in little over 48 hours.
On Thursday evening, President Zelensky put the figure at 1,000 sq km, and then 2,000 sq km on Saturday evening.
The BBC cannot verify the Ukrainian figures, and journalists have been denied access to the frontlines.
On Saturday, the eastern counter-attack saw Ukrainian troops enter the vital Russian-held supply towns of Izyum and Kupiansk.
But UK defence officials have warned that fighting has continued outside those towns. And officials in Kyiv said Ukrainian forces were still fighting to gain control of a number of settlements around Izyum.
Russia's defence ministry confirmed its forces' retreat from Izyum itself and Kupiansk, which it said would allow its forces "to regroup" in territory held by Moscow-backed separatists.
The Russian ministry also confirmed the withdrawal of troops from a third key town, Balaklyia, in order to "bolster efforts" on the Donetsk front. Ukrainian forces entered the town on Friday.
At the same time, the head of the Russia-installed administration in the Kharkiv region recommended that its people evacuate to Russia "to save lives".
Unverified footage on social media appeared to show long queues of traffic building up at border crossings.
And the governor of the Belgorod border region in Russia said mobile catering, heating, and medical assistance would be available to people queuing.
The pace of the counter-attack has caught the Russians off guard, and Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov - a staunch supporter of President Vladimir Putin - appeared to question the Russian retreat.
In a message posted to Telegram, Mr Kadyrov said if there was not a change in Russian fortunes, he would be forced to question the country's leadership to explain the situation.
But Russians still hold around a fifth of the country, and few imagine a swift end to the war. And Mr Kadyrov himself insisted "Russia will win" and "Nato weapons" would be "crushed".
The Ukrainian advances - if held - would be the most significant frontline changes since Russia withdrew from areas around Kyiv in April.
Kupiansk served as Russia's main eastern supply hub and the loss of Izyum - which Moscow spent over a month trying to take at the beginning of the war - would be seen as a major humiliation for President Vladimir Putin.
According to one military expert, the advance marks the first time since World War Two that whole Russian units have been lost.
The gains will also be seen as a sign that Ukraine's army has the capacity to retake occupied territory - crucial as Kyiv continues to ask hard-pressed Western allies for military support.
Ukraine's Foreign Minister, Dmytro Kuleba, said the latest developments showed its forces could end the war faster with more Western weapons.
On Saturday, UK defence officials suggested that much of the retaken area had been only "lightly held" by the Russians.
Ukraine launched its counter-offensive in the east earlier this week, while international attention was focused on an anticipated advance near the southern city of Kherson.
Analysts believe Russia redirected some of its most seasoned troops to defend the city.
But as well as gaining ground in the east, Ukraine is also making gains in the south, an official said.
Nataliya Gumenyuk, a spokesperson for the Ukrainian army's southern command, said they had advanced "between two and several dozens of kilometres" along that front.
But Russian forces fighting on the southern front are said to have dug into defensive positions, and Ukraine's troops have faced heavy resistance since the offensive began.
And in Kharkiv itself, one person was killed and several homes damaged on Saturday as Russian rocket fire hit the city, according to local officials.
Elsewhere, Ukraine's energy regulator, Energoatom, says the last reactor at the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant has been shut down, and is not generating electricity.
The reactor had been generating energy for the plant itself for three days - it was shut down when external power was restored.
The Ukrainian operator said that to prevent an emergency, it was essential that shelling of the power lines connecting the station to the national grid be halted.
Russia abandoned military strongholds in northeastern Ukraine on Saturday in an apparent rout of Russia’s front line positions, after Ukrainian forces pushed forward in a lightning advance that has left Moscow’s forces in disarray.
Russia’s defence ministry said its forces had pulled back from the strategic city of Izyum, claiming it had decided to “regroup” and transfer them south-eastwards to the Donetsk region.
The Russian retreat is one of President Vladimir Putin’s biggest setbacks since he ordered a full invasion of Ukraine on February 24, and could prove a turning point, involving the capture of thousands of Russian soldiers and their equipment.
“Since the beginning of September, about 2,000km of our territory have been freed,” Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Ukraine’s president, said in his daily evening video address to the nation.
“The Russian army is showing its best — showing its back . . . it is a good choice for them to run away. There is no place for the occupiers in Ukraine and there will be no place,” Zelenskyy said.
In an apparent bid to encourage more Russian soldiers to surrender, Zelenskyy promised that Ukraine would “guarantee” Russian soldiers who surrender fair treatment “in accordance with the Geneva Conventions”.
Videos posted on social media show bedraggled Russian troops who had abandoned their vehicles and positions in a hurry, leaving equipment and food behind. Locals cheered Ukrainian forces as they advanced through liberated villages.
“The world earlier didn’t think that the Russians could be beaten . . . Today the world has seen that it’s proven that the Russians can and should be beaten. We are doing that and will do that,” Oleksii Reznikov, Ukraine’s defence minister, said on Saturday during the Yalta European Strategy conference in Kyiv.
In comments to the Financial Times, Reznikov described the rapid counteroffensive that had taken Russian soldiers by surprise and led many to flee as being like a “snowball rolling down the hill, getting bigger and bigger.”
He claimed that Ukraine’s counter-offensive was also making steady progress in southern regions near the city of Kherson. “We are moving but probably a bit slower” than in the east, he said.
The Russian defence ministry made a rare statement on Saturday portraying the pullback from Balakliia and Izyum as a move intended to focus attention on a different frontline, rather than a defeat following the Ukrainian attack, which began on September 6.
“In order to achieve objectives . . . it was decided to regroup the Russian troops . . . to increase efforts in the Donetsk direction,” defence ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov said. He added that to this end: “an operation was conducted over three days to wind down and transfer out” Russian troops in that area.
The announcement came soon after Ukrainian troops captured Kupyansk, north of Izyum, a road and rail hub supplying Russia’s defences across northeastern Ukraine. This has left thousands of Russian troops cut off from supplies across a stretch of the battleground where some of the most intense battles of the war have been fought.
Ukrainian officials have not yet officially confirmed the capture of Izyum, but videos on social media show Ukrainian troops raising the national flag on the outskirts. Some officials confirmed it had been liberated.
Annalena Baerbock, Germany’s foreign minister, said the Ukrainian advance was a moment of hope. “This is what we need,” she said speaking on a visit to Kyiv. “We know that the time between UN General Assembly and Christmas is crucial and weapons support is crucial and we will be at their side.”
Analysts said Kyiv’s attack had taken advantage of Russian defences that had been depleted after troops were sent south to fend off a separate Ukrainian offensive. As many as 10,000 Russian troops may be caught in the new manoeuvre, Lawrence Freedman, emeritus professor of war studies at King’s College London, estimated.
Despite stiffer Russian resistance in the south, Nataliya Humenyuk, spokesperson for Ukraine’s armed forces near Kherson, said on Saturday that government troops were also making significant gains in the region.
“There is an advance of our troops along the southern front along various sections, from two to several dozen kilometres,” she said.
Military analysts said Ukraine had launched the two, nearly simultaneous, offensives to overwhelm the Russian military’s centralised system of command, which struggles with multidirectional deployments.
“Russian generals are afraid to make mistakes . . . which leads to the centralisation of decision-making, because everybody’s trying to push decisions as much upwards as possible to avoid responsibility. That kills their ability to deal with multidirectional approaches,” said Andriy Zagorodnyuk, a former Ukrainian defence minister.
“So that is exactly what our armed forces are doing . . . attacking where Russians don’t expect and in more than one direction,” he told participants at the Yalta conference.
Ukrainian officials said government troops were also advancing towards towns further east, including Lysychansk, Lyman and Kreminna.
One military commentator, embedded with Russian troops, described it as a “catastrophe” and the “biggest Russian military defeat since 1943”.
Below: Counter-offensive on Friday 9 September. Reports on Saturday suggest Ukrainian forces have reached both Kupyansk and Izyum.
But amid a growing sense of euphoria in Kyiv, analysts warned against reading too much into early Ukrainian successes, as supply lines could become overstretched while the Russian army retains fearsome capabilities.
“They [the Russians] have very good electronic warfare. They have very good artillery. They do have a few high-tech weapons . . . So, you have got to be careful. You always have to respect the adversary,” General Wesley Clarke, a former supreme Nato commander, said.
Russia is reportedly sending in more troops. Ukraine’s general staff said that 1,200 Chechen soldiers had been deployed to reinforce Russian positions around Kherson. Videos posted on social media on Saturday also allegedly showed the Russian army helicoptering in fresh troops to reinforce Izyum.
As Ukrainian troops race forward in what appears to be an unexpectedly successful counteroffensive in the northeastern Kharkiv region, locals are coming out to greet their liberators with hugs and promises of pancakes, according to videos published on social media.
Ukrainian soldiers have punched through the Russian frontlines in a lightning maneuver and seem to be establishing a noose around Russian forces in the highly strategic town of Izyum, which is of crucial logistical importance for Moscow’s operations in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine. Seeming caught off-guard, Russia insists that it is sending reinforcements and is “evacuating” civilians in the face of the Ukrainian advance.
As they push deeper into the Russian-occupied territory, the Ukrainian soldiers are posting videos of their reception in towns and villages along the route of their breakthrough. In footage recorded in the town of Balakliia, which had a pre-war population of around 28,000, a group of women cheer the incoming Ukrainian soldiers on the main square of the town. A Ukrainian soldier also appears in the background, wiping his feet on what looks like the flag of one of the pro-Russian separatist groups.
In another video, a group of women embrace several Ukrainian soldiers at the entrance to an apartment building in Balakliia, shedding tears of joy and repeating “Thanks, boys!” One of the women even offers pancakes to her liberators.
Balakliya was under Russian occupation for 6 months. It’s how the real liberation looks like. I listen to local people on the video and think how many unknown war crimes from this all period we will find there. pic.twitter.com/83dOd4P57W
“It’s hard for us, but we are pushing forward,” Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, commander-in-chief of the armed forces, said in a terse comment on these videos.
The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kharkiv region is Kyiv’s biggest advance since Russian troops were forced to withdraw from around Kyiv and northern Ukraine in early March. Since then, Russia has concentrated its military assault on Ukraine’s industrial Donbas region.
The move to impose a stranglehold around Izyum, a town with a pre-war population of 46,000, has rekindled memories of a major encounter fought in almost exactly the same territory in World War II. It was here that the Germans delivered a major blow with Operation Federicus against Joseph Stalin’s Red Army, which overreached and suffered some quarter of a million dead and wounded.
Commenting on the capture of Balakliia, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy wrote on Thursday night that “everything is in its right place. The Ukrainian flag is in a free Ukrainian city under a free Ukrainian sky.”
One image that circulated on social media on Friday showed that Ukrainian troops had already reached the outskirts of the town of Kupiansk, a major railway junction. As the crow flies, Kupiansk is only around 40 kilometers from the Russian border.
If Ukraine regains control over the town, this could potentially lead to the collapse of the Russian army group around Kharkiv.
Mykhailo Podoliak, an adviser to Zelenskyy’soffice, said in a televised interview aired on Thursday night that Kupiansk is “a key strategic site through which the entire Kharkiv grouping of Russian troops receives replenishment and reserves.”
“This is a key transport junction, which we need to win back, and then we will look at where to go from there — to the north or to the south,” Podoliak explained.
Meanwhile, it’s not clear what resistance Ukraine could face. On Friday afternoon, Russia’s defense ministry published a short video that purportedly showed a “transfer of Russian troops in the Kharkiv direction.” However, it was not clear from the footage how many troops and with what kinds of equipment Russia could move in its defense of the region.
Vitaly Ganchev, the Russia-appointed head of the Kharkiv government, said in a televised interview that pro-Russian authorities had started to “evacuate civilians” from Izyum and Kupiansk.
While Kyiv’s lightning advance may bring some relief to pro-Ukrainian local residents, those who agreed to collaborate with the occupation authorities in the Kherson region to the south could now face repercussions.
Kyrylo Tymoshenko, deputy head of the office of Zelenskyy’s chief of staff, posted on Friday a photo showing a captured, blindfolded man with his hands bound behind his back, who was introduced as the former head of the Russian-installed government of Ivanivka, a village in the Kherson region.
