Kamis, 22 September 2022

Foreign Secretary James Cleverly calls on countries to reject Putin's 'sham' referenda in Ukraine - Sky News

The foreign secretary has called on countries to reject the "charade" of referenda to be held in Russian-controlled regions in eastern and southern Ukraine.

Speaking at the United Nations Security Council, James Cleverly said Vladimir Putin plans to fix the results of votes on becoming parts of Russia.

It comes as a prosecutor at the International Criminal Court (ICC), Karim Khan, told the council there were "reasonable grounds" to believe war crimes had been committed in Ukraine.

Mr Cleverly said: "We have information which means that we know that Russia is about to hold sham referenda on sovereign Ukrainian territory with no basis in law under the threat of violence after mass displacements of people in areas that voted overwhelmingly for Ukrainian independence.

"We know what Vladimir Putin is doing. He is planning to fabricate the outcome of those referenda, he is planning to use that to annex sovereign Ukrainian territory, and he is planning to use it as a further pretext to escalate his aggression.

"We call on all countries to reject this charade and to refuse to recognise any results."

Russian foreign minister walks out of UN summit after speech - Ukraine latest

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The security council meeting in New York came a day after the Ukraine conflict threatened to spiral into a nuclear crisis as Mr Putin warned his country would use "all the means at our disposal" to protect itself.

Mr Khan, the ICC prosecutor, said he was dispatching more staffers next week to look into allegations emerging from eastern Ukraine.

He hasn't yet announced any charges linked to the conflict, but said he believes there are reasonable grounds to think that crimes within the jurisdiction of the court had been committed.

The Hague-based court handles war crimes, crimes against humanity, genocide and crimes of aggression.

"The picture that I've seen so far is troubling indeed," he said.

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Retired Air Vice-Marshall Sean Bell explains what Putin said about Russia’s weapons in his speech

Mr Cleverly said the "devastating consequences" of Russia's invasion of Ukraine are becoming clearer every day.

Addressing his counterparts at the special foreign minister-level meeting, he said: "We see the mounting evidence of Russian atrocities against civilians, including indiscriminate shelling and targeted attacks on over 200 medical facilities and 40 educational institutions and horrific acts of sexual violence."

He said in parts of Ukraine under Russian control, civilians are subject to torture, arbitrary detention and forced deportation to Russia.

The foreign secretary spoke right after Sergei Lavrov, but the Russian foreign minister left the chamber straight after his turn.

Russia is outnumbered on the security council, but any meaningful action on Ukraine by the 15-member body has been hampered because it is a veto-wielding permanent member.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken earlier told the meeting that "one man chose this war, one man can end it".

Russian police officers detain a man during an unsanctioned rally, after opposition activists called for street protests against the mobilisation of reservists ordered by President Vladimir Putin, in Moscow, Russia September 21, 2022. REUTERS/REUTERS PHOTOGRAPHER
Image: There have been protests in Moscow after Putin issued a mobilisation order as he attempts to gain ground . Pic: Reuters
Russian police officers detain a man during an unsanctioned rally, after opposition activists called for street protests against the mobilisation of reservists ordered by President Vladimir Putin, in Moscow, Russia September 21, 2022. REUTERS/REUTERS PHOTOGRAPHER
Image: There have been protests in Moscow after Putin issued a mobilisation order as he attempts to gain ground . Pic: Reuters

The conflict in Ukraine has dominated talks at the United Nations General Assembly in New York, where world leaders and senior diplomats from across the globe have descended.

On Tuesday, separatist leaders in four Russian-occupied regions of Ukraine announced plans to begin voting to become integral parts of Russia.

Read More:
What will holding referenda mean for parts of Russia-occupied Ukraine?
Briton released in Russia-Ukraine prisoner swap pictured with his family

Mr Putin gave a rare address to the nation the following day, where he said he said he wasn't bluffing and would use "all the means available to us" if Russian territory was threatened.

The Russian leader also ordered a "partial mobilisation" of military reserves - sparking mass protests on the streets of Moscow that led to over 1,300 arrests.

In her first speech on the world stage as prime minister, Liz Truss said Mr Putin was desperately trying to justify a "catastrophic" failure in Ukraine and accused him of "sabre rattling".

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2022-09-22 19:41:15Z
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Shaun Pinner: Briton released in Russia-Ukraine prisoner swap pictured with his family as all five captives return to UK - Sky News

Five Britons released from Russian detention in Ukraine after a prisoner swap have arrived back safely in the UK.

One of the men, Shaun Pinner, is now back at the family home near Sandy in Bedfordshire.

"It's good to be home," he said. "I'm looking forward to a steak dinner tonight!"

For his mother, Debbie Price, the relief is overwhelming.

She told Sky's Emma Birchley: "It's been a really, really hard time. We are just so happy to have him home. It's hugely emotional."

Russia 'likely to struggle' to mobilise 300,000 troops - Ukraine war latest

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Freed POW Aiden Aslin thankful for release

Aiden Aslin, John Harding, Dylan Healy and Andrew Hill have been identified by the Foreign and Commonwealth Office as the other Britons released.

In a statement, Mr Pinner's family said: "We would like to thank everybody involved in Shaun's release, especially all at the Foreign Office, Liz Truss and her team, Boris Johnson and President Zelenskyy.

"Shaun would also like to thank the hospitality of the Saudi government and Prince Mohammed bin Salman al Saud who also assisted in the negotiations for his freedom.

"It's a very emotional time as you can expect and we are unable to currently discuss so early in his release any details fully.

"It's been a harrowing time for Shaun and our family which has now had such a happy resolution. Shaun is in good spirits and still has his sense of humour intact. He is looking forward to steak and a glass of red wine tonight.

"We are now enjoying some family time and would appreciate the privacy at this moment."

Shaun Pinner pictured in a hotel with his family
Image: Shaun Pinner (pictured in dark top in the middle) in a hotel with his family

Back in April, Mr Pinner and Aiden Aslin were captured by Russian forces who accused them of being mercenaries.

As a result, they appeared in court in the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic, a breakaway region in eastern Ukraine, and were threatened with death by firing squad.

At the time, Mr Pinner's family stressed he was "not a volunteer nor a mercenary, but officially serving with the Ukrainian army".

On their flight home, Mr Aslin and Mr Pinner recorded a message, thanking those who had worked to free them.

"We're now out of the danger zone and on our way home to our families," said Mr Aslin.

"By the skin of our teeth," Mr Pinner, who is from Bedfordshire, added.

Prior to their release, four of the men featured in video clips posted online or on Russian state TV.

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Brits sentenced to death

The first hint Mr Pinner had that something was happening was after lunch on Tuesday.

"They said you have to roll your stuff up. They said you're going on a long journey," he said.

'We were moved to another location. We didn't have any idea what was happening."

He was flown with other released captives to Saudi Arabia and at 5.30pm UK time on Wednesday, he was able to speak to his mother on the phone, from the Middle Eastern country.

Wedding anniversary

"It's very emotional, as you can imagine," he said.

However, the 48-year-old, who has been living in Ukraine since 2018, has many friends still there, as well as his wife.

Today is their second wedding anniversary.

It's hoped she will be able to get a visa to also come to the UK.

In footage broadcast on Russian state TV in April, Mr Pinner said he had been fighting in the besieged port city of Mariupol for five to six weeks.

In the months before he appeared in court, he told Sky News he was on his fourth tour of duty in Ukraine after serving in the British Army for nine years.

After the news broke the Britons would be returning to the UK, Prime Minister Liz Truss said she "hugely welcomed" the move, adding it would end "months of uncertainty and suffering for them and their families".

Shaun Pinner (centre) and Aiden Aslin (right). John Harding has his thumb up
Image: Shaun Pinner (centre) and Aiden Aslin (right). John Harding has his thumb up

Who else was released?

Almost 300 people were released in the prisoner swap, many of them from the Ukrainian Azov regiment, which gained fame for its defence of the final stronghold in Mariupol.

Mr Harding was among the small group of soldiers who were holed up inside the Azovstal steelworks in the southeastern city.

Ten other foreigners have been released to Saudi Arabia before they return home, including Moroccan Brahim Saadoun, Americans Alexander Drueke and Andy Huynh, a Croatian, and a Swedish national.

Five British POWs have been freed after being held by Russian-backed separatists in Ukraine. Pic: SPA - Saudi Press Agency
Image: Almost 300 people were freed after being held by Russian-backed separatists in Ukraine. Pic: SPA - Saudi Press Agency

Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said: "We remember all our people and try to save every Ukrainian.

"This is the meaning of Ukraine, our essence, this is what distinguishes us from the enemy."

The exchange took place unexpectedly, coming as Russian President Vladimir Putin threatened to use nuclear weapons.

It was brokered with help from Turkey and Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who has close ties with Mr Putin.

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2022-09-22 17:45:50Z
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UN standing ovation for President Zelenskyy, but Russia's Security Council veto means the organisation lacks teeth - Sky News

Though the Ukrainian President couldn't see it, the reaction in the UN General Assembly chamber to his speech was the one he wanted. A standing ovation from the representatives of many aligned countries. 

President Putin's stark nuclear threats had come before dawn US time while leaders and delegates at the annual General Assembly were asleep.

And as leaders arrived, our attempts to solicit their reactions failed.

The Canadian prime minister, the EU commission president and the Turkish foreign minister were all silent. This wasn't the moment for off-the-cuff remarks.

There was anticipation instead for how America's President Biden would react to the overnight language from Moscow. His speech had a sentence or two reworked and emphasis changed.

"This war is about extinguishing Ukraine's right to exist as a state. Plain and simple. Wherever you are, whatever you believe that should make your blood run cold," he said.

"If nations can pursue imperial ambitions without consequences then we put at risk everything this institution stands for."

More on Joe Biden

On the specifics of the Russian nuclear threat: "We do not seek conflict. We do not seek a Cold War… A nuclear war can not be won and must never be fought."

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'Nuclear war cannot be won'

Analysis: Why Putin's escalation of war in Ukraine could give him pretext to resort to nuclear strike

Ukraine's President Zelenskyy was video-linked into the chamber from Kyiv.

He demanded "just punishment" of Russia for a "crime committed against the values that make you and me a community of the United Nations".

"There is only one entity among all UN member states who would say now, if he could interrupt my speech, that he is happy with the war, with his war," Zelenskyy said.

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Zelenskyy: 'We didn't provoke this war'

Liz Truss's speech came late in the day - nothing more than a quirk of UN timetabling.

Prime Minister for less than three weeks and already she's at the podium on the world stage. What a baptism of fire.

It was a moment for her to make her mark and in a chamber like the UN, the impact so often is about more than just the words, it's about the delivery.

"This morning we have seen Putin desperately trying to justify his catastrophic failures." she said.

"He is doubling down by sending even more reservists to a terrible fate. He is desperately trying to claim the mantle of democracy for a regime without human rights or freedoms. And he is making yet more bogus claims and sabre-rattling threats."

She's not the orator her predecessor was. Commanding a forum like the UN chamber isn't easy.

Earlier, she had her first one-to-one meeting with President Biden.

Ukraine was the focus of course there too, and naturally there was a united front.

But from the four minutes or so of the meeting that cameras were permitted to, the body language seemed stiff.

The UK and America are two nations with a special relationship - yes, but as leaders, Joe Biden and Liz Truss have very different politics and no obvious rapport.

The next focus in here later today - a UN Security Council meeting of foreign ministers, where - like the other permanent members - Russia has a veto.

Watch for a clash of words: Russia's Sergei Lavrov opposite America's Tony Blinken and Britain's new foreign Secretary, James Cleverly.

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2022-09-22 02:56:03Z
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Rabu, 21 September 2022

Freed 'by the skin of our teeth': British POWs detained by Russian-backed separatists have been released - Sky News

Two of five Britons released after being detained by Russian-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine have told supporters they got out of the "danger zone....by the skin of our teeth".

In a personal message recorded on their flight home, Aiden Aslin and Shaun Pinner thanked all those who had worked to free them.

"We're now out of the danger zone and on our way home to our families," said Mr Aslin. "By the skin of our teeth," smiled Mr Pinner.

Mr Aslin continued: "We just want everyone to know the good news. Thanks to everyone who has been supportive. It's really appreciated."

In April, both men were captured by Russian forces who accused them of being a mercenaries. They were brought before a court in the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic, a breakaway region in eastern Ukraine, and threatened with death by firing squad.

News of their freedom was tweeted by the prime minister: "Hugely welcome news that five British nationals held by Russian-backed proxies in eastern Ukraine are being safely returned, ending months of uncertainty and suffering for them and their families."

She thanked Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Saudi Arabia for their assistance.

More on Russia

Aiden Aslin
Image: Shaun Pinner (centre) and Aiden Aslin (right). John Harding has his thumb up. Pic: Cossackgundi

"Russia must end the ruthless exploitation of prisoners of war and civilian detainees for political ends," she added.

John Harding has been identified as the third of those released. The two remaining Britons are yet to be confirmed by the government.

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British POWs arrive in Saudi Arabia

Speaking with Sky News correspondent Emma Birchley, Mr Pinner's mother, Debbie Price, and his sister, Cassandra Pinner, said: "We are very, very happy."

While Debbie said her initial reaction was one of excitement, she added: "I felt pretty shakey."

Mr Aslin lives in health minister Robert Jenrick's constituency. He said: "Aiden's return brings to an end, months of agonising uncertainty for Aiden's loving family in Newark, who suffered every day of Aiden's sham trial but never lost hope.

"As they are united as a family once more, they can finally be at peace."

Five British POWs have been freed after being held by Russian-backed separatists in Ukraine. Pic: SPA - Saudi Press Agency
Image: The freed men disembark. Pic: SPA - Saudi Press Agency
Five British POWs have been freed after being held by Russian-backed separatists in Ukraine. Pic: SPA - Saudi Press Agency

He later told Sky News it had been an "absolutely harrowing experience" for Mr Aslin.

"First he was captured, then he was put on trial in a Soviet era-type sham trial and sentenced to death by firing squad. Then he was mistreated and physically abused by his captors and used for propaganda purposes by Russia and its puppets."

He added: "It's been a really sorry episode that speaks to his (President Vladimir Putin's) disregard for international law and human life. These were legitimate prisoners of war who should have been treated with respect."

Read more:
Family members of Britons facing death penalty in Donetsk spoke of their devastation at their capture

Aiden Aslin, 28, was sentenced to death in a trial in the Russian-backed Donetsk People's Republic. Mr Aslin was fighting in the Ukrainian army and surrendered in Mariupol. Pic: AP
Image: Mr Aslin was imprisoned in a Russian-controlled area of eastern Ukraine. Pic: AP

US nationals also freed

The Foreign Office had been working for months to support those detained, but it is believed Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia Mohammed bin Salman was also involved in helping with their release.

Mr Jenrick said he believed the Crown Prince had been asked because not only was Saudi Arabia "an ally and partner of the UK" but also because it is a country, through its role in OPEC (the group of oil-producing nations), that has an ongoing relationship with Russia.

Read more:
British fighter filmed singing Russian national anthem after being captured by Putin's forces

Money exchange?

Mr Jenrick told Sky News he did not know if any money had changed hands between Russia and Ukraine.

"I don't know the full details... these negotiations are very delicate, and the full circumstances may never be known.

"Russia has done prisoner exchanges with Ukraine in the past... so it's not, in that sense, unusual but what was unusual in this case is that it was involving foreign nationals."

Aside from the five Britons, two US military veterans who disappeared while fighting Russia with Ukrainian forces have also been released after about three months in captivity.

Alex Drueke, 39, and Andy Huynh, 27, both from Alabama, went missing after their unit came under heavy fire in the Kharkiv region of northeastern Ukraine near the Russian border on 9 June.

UK Foreign Secretary James Cleverly welcomed the news of all the releases, though he also remembered Paul Urey, a British aid volunteer who died earlier this year while being detained in similar circumstances, and said "our thoughts remain with the family".

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2022-09-21 21:45:00Z
1576864467

Vladimir Putin mobilises army and issues nuclear threat - Financial Times

Vladimir Putin has ordered the mobilisation of army reservists to support Moscow’s ailing campaign in Ukraine and warned that he would use Russia’s nuclear arsenal if its “territorial integrity” was “threatened”, declaring: “This is not a bluff.”

The warning, which sparked immediate alarm in Washington and elsewhere, came as Putin claimed the west wanted to “weaken, divide and destroy Russia” and pressed on with plans to annex swaths of Ukrainian territory.

Joe Biden hit out at Putin’s “overt nuclear threats against Europe [and] reckless disregard for the responsibilities of a non-proliferation regime”, attacking the referendum and mobilisation plans as “outrageous acts”.

The US president added, in a speech to the UN General Assembly: “This war is about extinguishing Ukraine’s right to exist as a state, plain and simple . . . That should make your blood run cold.”

Moscow announced the “partial mobilisation” of 300,000 reservists ahead of heavily stage-managed votes in four occupied regions of Ukraine to join Russia.

Western officials have estimated that at present there are between 150,000 and 190,000 Russian forces on the ground in Ukraine.

The results of the “referendums”, starting on Friday, in the Russian-controlled areas of the Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions are in effect a foregone conclusion, with the Kremlin in charge of the vote. It insists over 80 per cent of the population in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia and more than 90 per cent in Donetsk and Luhansk want to join Russia.

“Russia can’t give up people close to her to be torn apart by executioners and fail to respond to their desire to determine their own fate,” Putin said.

In his reference to Russia’s nuclear capability, he added: “If its territorial integrity is threatened Russia will use all the means at its disposal.”

Nato secretary-general Jens Stoltenberg attacked Putin’s “dangerous and reckless nuclear rhetoric”, adding: “He knows very well that a nuclear war should never be fought and cannot be won, and it will have unprecedented consequences for Russia.”

Other western officials said the rapid annexation plan and partial mobilisation were signs of Putin’s weakness.

Biden said the Russian war in Ukraine violated the United Nations charter, promising to continue supporting Ukraine’s efforts to defend itself.

Russia appeared to acknowledge that advanced western weaponry such as the US-manufactured Himars rocket launcher system had begun to turn the tide on the battlefield.

“We are not at war with Ukraine, but with the collective west,” defence minister Sergei Shoigu said in a state television interview.

He added that Moscow would only call up reserves, rather than deploy the conscript army. This would add 300,000 people to Russia’s fighting force, he said, asserting that those called up would have combat experience and military specialisations.

“These are not people who’ve never seen or heard anything about the army,” he said. “We’re not talking about the mobilisation of any students . . . They can calmly keep going to class,” Shoigu said. He claimed that after the reserves were called up, Russia would still have only used up 1 per cent of its mobilisation potential.

Russia’s invasion has faltered badly, with invading forces taking heavy casualties before retreating from central Ukraine in the spring and then ceding huge swaths of territory in the eastern Kharkiv region following a Ukrainian counter-offensive this month.

Additional reporting by Roman Olearchyk in Kyiv and Felicia Schwartz in New York

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2022-09-21 17:37:41Z
1575925605

Selasa, 20 September 2022

Speculation that Putin will give national address defending efforts to annex Ukrainian regions - Sky News

Vladimir Putin is expected to deliver a national address later - his first since he ordered his troops into Ukraine in February.

There had been speculation in Russian news media that he would speak to Russians on Tuesday evening but this did not happen, and no reason was given.

It comes after separatist leaders in four Russian-occupied regions in eastern Ukraine announced plans to hold referendums on joining Russia later this week.

Mr Putin is expected to defend the move, which would pave the way for the formal annexation of swathes of territory after nearly seven months of war.

The self-styled Donetsk (DPR) and the Luhansk People's Republics (LPR), which Mr Putin recognised as independent states just before the invasion on 24 February, have both said they will hold referendums beginning this Friday and until Tuesday.

The Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions, which have yet to be recognised as independent states by Russia, have also said they will hold votes of their own.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the situation clearly showed his country had the initiative in the conflict, adding that "noisy news from Russia" would not change Ukraine's position.

More on Russia

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'Referendums are an act of desperation from Russians'

The White House said the US will reject the plans to hold referendums, while Ukraine dismissed the move as a stunt by Moscow to try to reclaim the initiative after crushing losses on the battlefield.

And French President Emmanuel Macron said the referendums will not be recognised by the international community.

NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg tweeted: "Sham referendums have no legitimacy and do not change the nature of Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine. This is a further escalation in Putin's war. The international community must condemn this blatant violation of international law and step up support for Ukraine."

Moscow does not fully control any of the four regions, with only around 60% of Donetsk region in Russian hands, but if it goes ahead with the referendums and joins all four to Russia then Ukraine - and potentially its Western backers too - would, from a Russian perspective, be fighting against Russia itself.

'Panic' within Kremlin amid Ukraine's counter-offensive - all latest Ukraine news, live

Volodymyr Zelenskyy says Ukraine will regain all its territory
Image: Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has vowed Ukraine would regain all its territory

That would raise the risk of a direct military confrontation between Russia and the NATO military alliance, a scenario US President Joe Biden has said could lead to World War Three, because NATO-members are supplying arms and giving intelligence to Ukraine.

Commentators have agreed the move could escalate Moscow's stand-off with the West as it comes after recent territorial gains made by Ukrainian forces, pushed Russian troops very much onto the back foot.

The world has been waiting as Mr Putin has pondered his next steps following the bruising pushbacks.

Analysis: Russia makes new stand after being thrown back by rapid Ukrainian offensive

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What is Russia's next military step

Ukraine said the threat of referendums was "naive blackmail" and a sign Russia was running scared.

"This is what the fear of defeat looks like. The enemy is afraid, and obfuscates primitively," said Mr Zelenskyy's chief of staff Andriy Yermak.

Dmitry Medvedev, a former Russian president who is currently deputy chairman of its Security Council, suggested the outcome of any referendums would be irreversible.

The territory Russia currently controls in Ukraine amounts to more than 90,000 square km, or about 15% of the country's total area - equal to the size of Hungary or Portugal.

Russia annexed Crimea in 2014. With Crimea and the territory in the four other regions, Russia would gain an area of around 120,000 square km, about the same size as the US state of Pennsylvania. England is around 130,000 sq km.

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2022-09-21 01:11:21Z
1574218901

Why is Russia calling 'votes' in occupied Ukraine? - BBC

Russian President Vladimir Putin speaks during a meeting on the military-industrial complex at the Kremlin, September 20, 2022Getty Images

Russian-backed officials in four occupied regions of Ukraine have declared self-styled referendums on joining Russia.

There are echoes of Russia's annexation of Crimea, but this is different, as all four regions are at war and Russia seized Crimea without a gun being fired.

What is going on and why now?

After almost seven months of war, Russia's Vladimir Putin is on the back foot. Ukraine's counter-offensive has recaptured swathes of territory seized in the months after Russia's 24 February invasion.

He is under pressure from hardliners to respond, and backing Crimea-style referendums provides his critics with an answer. Russian media are already releasing opinion polls claiming widespread support for joining Russia, but they are as spurious as the votes being held in the middle of a war, with no proper scrutiny or legitimacy.

Just as his 2014 vote in Crimea was rejected as a sham by the international community, so are these, condemned already by the leaders of France and Germany.

But President Putin may feel that declaring occupied areas as Russian territory could change the course of the war, as it will enable him to tell Ukraine's Western backers to stop supplying arms. American Himars missile launchers in particular have hit Russian forces hard.

Russia analyst Alexander Baunov says Russia's hope is that the West will baulk at the thought of fighting in what Russia considers its territory.

What makes these votes a sham?

For five days, from 23-27 September, four regions of Ukraine that are partially or almost completely occupied by Russia will hold self-styled referendums, with voting either in person or remotely.

The vote is on joining the Russian Federation and the Russian-installed head of Kherson region in the south, Vladimir Saldo said incorporating it into Russia would "secure our territory and restore historical justice".

The regional capital, Kherson city, is not a safe place right now, with Russian soldiers struggling to hold back a big Ukrainian counter-offensive. The central administration building was hit by a series of missiles only last week. A secure vote is impossible.

Then there's Zaporizhzhia's capital, which remains securely in Ukrainian hands, so any vote to annex that region makes little sense.

Map

Donetsk in the east is only 60% under Russian occupation and very much at the heart of the conflict, while Russia does control most of Luhansk in the north-east even if it has begun to lose ground.

Much of the pre-war population has fled the war. The head of Russia's proxy authority in Donetsk, Denis Pushilin, ordered a mass evacuation days before the invasion.

Russia's proxy leaders may have been keen to stage votes for several months, but this snap decision just three days in advance smacks of desperation.

In the words of France's Emmanuel Macron: "Russia started the war, invaded this region, bombed people, made people flee and now they are saying in this very region it's going to organise a referendum."

"We are seeing that local populations are all in favour of returning to Ukraine, and this is why there's so much guerrilla movement resistance in these territories, so these referendums are doomed," Ukrainian defence ministry adviser Yuriy Sak told the BBC.

What happens after annexation?

It is all so different from 2014. The Donetsk proxy leader has called on Mr Putin to respond to a positive decision after 27 September - "which we have no doubt about" - to consider it becoming part of Russia.

The Russian president most likely will decide to annex all four regions, but little will change on the ground as Ukraine's counter-offensive will continue.

Russia may well demand that Nato countries stop arming Ukraine but none of them will recognise the votes. As the Institute for the Study of War points out, Ukraine has already hit Russian military targets in Crimea, and there was no Russian retaliation.

Will Russia mobilise?

Until now, Russia's president has stopped short of declaring war, labelling this campaign a "special military operation". That has prevented full mobilisation and there is some talk that he may be on the verge of taking that step.

While the four regions were announcing their pseudo-votes, Russia's lower house of parliament was rushing through a change to the law introducing the concepts of "mobilisation" and "time of war" to the criminal code - with stiff penalties for desertion, surrender or going absent without leave (AWOL).

Mobilisation may now be on the table, but not immediately.

Mr Putin is signalling to his remaining allies that he is trying to end the war. Turkey's president said he even told him he was trying to do so as soon as possible.

However, if that doesn't work, Alexander Baunov believes he would then be able to blame others and turn his invasion of Ukraine into a defensive war. Moscow would then hope to legitimise the conflict for ordinary Russians and take further measures.

Is there a nuclear risk?

Russian propagandists regularly threaten the use of the country's nuclear arsenal, particularly now that their armed forces are losing on the battlefield in Ukraine. They have also painted the Ukraine campaign as a proxy war with Nato, even though Western leaders have been ultra-careful to avoid direct conflict.

The deputy head of Russia's security council, Dmitry Medvedev, issued a thinly veiled threat on Tuesday when he said that after annexation any encroachment on Russian territory could be met by "all the forces of self-defence".

Russian TV propagandist Margarita Simonyan went further, saying that strikes on Russian territory would become a "full-fledged war between Ukraine and Nato and Russia, untying Russia's hands".

UK Conservative MP Bob Seely, who has just visited Kyiv, believes the nuclear threat is largely a threat to intimidate and scare the West to halt Ukraine's supply of weapons.

But he warns of the danger that it could become self-fulfilling, so that Russia justifies the use of tactical nuclear weapons "to such an extent to themselves that it becomes eventually a rational response, however much we don't think it is a rational response".

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2022-09-20 21:30:52Z
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