Sabtu, 22 April 2023

Mifepristone ruling – live: Supreme Court decision keeps medical abortion pill approval in place - The Independent

The US Supreme Court has kept the government’s approval of a widely used abortion drug in place, while one of the biggest battles over abortion rights since the end of Roe v Wadecontinues in federal courts.

Justices on the nation’s highest court have paused a lower court ruling that challenge the government’s 23-year-old approval of mifepristone, part of a two-drug protocol for medication abortion, the most common form of abortion in the US.

Following an appeal from the Biden administration and drugmakers, the court paused a federal judge’s ruling that would strip the US Food and Drug Administration’s approval of mifepristone, which was first approved by the government agency in 2000.

A ruling to strike down the FDA’s approval of the drug would have drastically impacted access to abortion and miscarriage care for millions of Americans across the country, including in states where it is legally protected.

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Who is Matthew Kacsmaryk, the Trump-appointed judge trying to ban abortion drug?

A Trump-appointed federal judge in Texas whose decision to halt approval of the most commonly used abortion drug in the US has trigged a legal battle posing the most significant threat to abortion rights since the Supreme Court revoked a constitutional right to abortion care last year.

Alex Woodward20 April 2023 15:06
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The latest: Supreme Court delays decision in abortion drug case until Friday

The US Supreme Court has extended its pause on a lower court ruling that would strip the government’s approval of a widely used abortion drug, which will remain available, at least for now.

An order from the nation’s highest court that put the ruling on hold was set to lapse at midnight on Wednesday. An order issued on Wednesday afternoon extended that hold until midnight on Friday.

Alex Woodward20 April 2023 15:07
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Abortion advocates and providers brace for Supreme Court decision in major drug case

Abortion providers, clinics and abortion rights advocates and patients are anticipating a US Supreme Court decision that could provide some clarity about the fate of a widely used drug at the centre of the biggest legal battle for abortion care since the fall of Roe v Wade last year.

Advocates and civil rights legal groups were stunned by lower court rulings that took aim at the FDA’s approval of mifepristone, decisions that they say are “unmoored” by both the law and science, including decades of research and guidance from major medical and public health organisations.

Alex Woodward20 April 2023 15:09
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How the challenge to mifepristone landed at the Supreme Court

Following the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v Wade last year, marking a significant victory for the anti-abortion movement and Christian conservative legal groups who have fuelled that campaign, anti-abortion activists took aim at medication abortion, the most common form of abortion care in the US.

Here’s how the case played out over the last several months:

  • In November, the group Alliance Defending Freedom filed a lawsuit in US District Court in Amarillo, Texas on behalf of a group of anti-abortion activists incorporated at the Alliance for Hippocratic Medicine, which was organised that month with an address in Amarillo.
  • Judge Matthew Kacsmaryk – a former right-wing activist lawyer who was appointed to the federal judiciary by Donald Trump – held a hearing in the case on 15 March in Amarillo.
  • Earlier this month, Judge Kacsmaryk issued a ruling to suspend the FDA’s approval of mifepristone. His order was set to take effect a week later, pending a decision from on appeal.
  • But in a separate ruling in Washington state, a federal judge ruled that the FDA cannot change the status quo when it comes to mifepristone’s approval, setting up potentially duelling decisions over the drug.
  • Abortion rights advocates, providers, major medical groups and legal analysts condemned the ruling, and the US Department of Justice and Danco Laboratories, which manufactures mifepristone, filed an appeal.
  • That appeal landed at the US Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit, which has jurisdiction over the Amarillo court.
  • A three-judge panel on the Fifth Circuit blocked a part of the judge’s ruling, but struck against mail-in prescriptions and rules that expanded the drug’s approval for use up to 10 weeks of pregnancy.
  • The Supreme Court blocked the Texas ruling while it considers the case.
Alex Woodward20 April 2023 15:30
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The latest: Florida’s latest anti-abortion law will nearly eliminate access across the South

Abortion is effectively outlawed in more than a dozen states, mostly in the South, following the US Supreme Court’s decision to strike down the constitutional right to abortion care last June.

Shortly after the state’s Republican-controlled legislature passed the measure on 13 April, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis signed a bill into law that outlaws abortion at six weeks of pregnancy.

The law will strand Florida residents “in a vast abortion desert” and force patients to travel more than 1,000 miles for legal access to abortion care, according to Elisabeth Smith, director of state policy and advocacy at the Center for Reproductive Rights.

Alex Woodward20 April 2023 16:15
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Judge who wants to block mifepristone removed his name from anti-abortion article before Senate confirmation

The judge presiding over a challenge to a widely used abortion drug reportedly failed to disclose to members of Congress that he authored an article attacking abortion rights and transgender healthcare in a right-wing legal journal while he was in the running for his Trump-appointed position on the federal judiciary.

Alex Woodward20 April 2023 16:45
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What will the Supreme Court decide, and what happens next?

The order from Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito, who presides over the district where the mifepristone challenge was filed, was published on the so-called “shadow docket” where the court handles both procedural manners and emergency motions that can have profound implications.

Alito’s brief order to pause a federal court’s decision that would reverse the FDA’s approval for mifepristone keeps the status quo in place until midnight on Friday, at the latest.

But it is unclear what the court will do next.

The court will not be ruling on the merits of the case, but it will determine how or if mifepristone can be dispensed while the case continues to play out.

After the court makes a decision, the case returns to the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals in Louisiana. Both parties will have a chance to file briefs, and the case will be argued before a three-judge panel on 17 May.

Alex Woodward20 April 2023 17:15
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Republican lawmaker tells women to ‘get off the abortion conversation’ as future of critical drug in jeopardy

A Republican congressman from Texas dodged questions about a federal court decision to revoke a more than 20-year-old approval for a commonly used abortion drug, instead suggesting that “women have a whole lot of other issues than just abortion” and the US should “talk about the other things that are happening in this world.”

US Rep Tony Gonzales told CNN’s State of the Union earlier this month that the issue was about “states’ rights,” but he stumbled when asked how that accounts for a federal court ruling that will have a dramatic impact to abortion access across the country if it goes into effect.

Alex Woodward20 April 2023 18:19
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The women suing Texas over the state’s ‘barbaric’ abortion restrictions

Last month, five women who were denied abortions under several overlapping anti-abortion laws in Texas filed a lawsuit against the state, marking the first time that pregnant women have sought legal action themselves after a wave of restrictions following the US Supreme Court’s decision to strike down Roe v Wade.

The plaintiffs, two of whom are pregnant, told their stories outside the Texas capitol, warning that the state’s anti-abortion measures expose pregnant patients to severe risk of illness, injury and death.

Alex Woodward20 April 2023 20:11
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‘One of the most brazen attacks on Americans’ health'

Federal court rulings that undermine the FDA’s two-decade approval of a widely used abortion drug could upend the government’s drug regulatory process into chaos in ways that extend far beyond the fight over mifepristone, according to Dr Jack Resneck Jr, presidentof the American Medical Assocation.

He writes in an essay for The New York Times on Thuesday that the political volatility surrounding the drug over the last few years could open up the FDA to challenges to “many vaccines, including those that reduce the risks of serious illness from Covid-19.”

“We should expect lawsuits against common types of safe and highly effective hormonal birth control, including emergency contraception,” he added. “Also at risk: drugs used to treat cancer and arthritis that can incidentally affect unexpected pregnancies, drugs to prevent or treat HIV, and medications aimed at providing gender-affirming care.”

Alex Woodward20 April 2023 20:45

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2023-04-22 13:00:00Z
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Sudan fighting: Foreign nationals to be evacuated - BBC

Heavy smoke billows above buildings in the vicinity of the Khartoum airport on April 15, 2023Getty Images

Diplomats and nationals from the UK, US, France and China are to be evacuated from Sudan by air as fighting there continues, a statement from the Sudanese army says.

Army chief Fattah al-Burhan agreed to facilitate and secure their evacuation "in the coming hours", it said.

He is locked in a bitter power struggle with the leader of a rival paramilitary faction, the Rapid Support Forces.

Hundreds of people have been killed in a week of fighting across the country.

Previous plans to evacuate foreign nationals have not been implemented because of safety fears.

A statement from the army said British, US, French and Chinese nationals and diplomats would be evacuated by air on board military transport planes from the capital, Khartoum.

Saudi Arabia has also announced it is arranging the evacuation of its citizens and nationals of "brotherly" countries.

The Sudanese army said Saudi Arabia's diplomatic mission had already been evacuated by land to the coastal city of Port Sudan and from there by air to Saudi Arabia. Jordan's diplomatic mission will be next to be secured, it added.

Khartoum's international airport has been closed due to the violence, with foreign embassies - including the UK and US - unable to bring their citizens home.

The conflict has entered its second week despite both sides - the army and the RSF - agreeing to a three-day ceasefire to mark the Muslim holiday of Eid al-Fitr, starting from Friday.

Sporadic gunfire and air strikes were heard in the capital on Saturday despite the truce.

A former foreign minister, Mariam al-Mahdi, who is sheltering in Khartoum told the BBC the ceasefire was "not taking at all".

"We are out of electricity for the last 24 hours. We are out of water for the last six days," she said.

Medical teams are being targeted in the fighting, she said, adding: "There are rotting bodies of our youth in the streets."

People gather at the station to flee from Khartoum during clashes between the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces and the army in Khartoum, Sudan April 19, 2023.
Reuters

Fierce street battles erupted in Khartoum on 15 April after disagreements emerged between the leaders of both sides - General Burhan and the RSF's Mohamed Hamdan "Hemedti" Dagalo - over how Sudan should be run.

They both held top positions in Sudan's current military government, formed after the 2019 coup that ousted long-time leader Omar al-Bashir.

They were supposed to merge their forces but the RSF resisted this change, mobilising its troops which escalated into full-scale fighting last week.

The World Health Organization says more than 400 people have been killed. The death toll is believed to be much higher as people struggle to reach hospitals.

Thousands of people, mainly civilians, have also been injured, with medical centres under pressure to deal with the influx of patients.

Along with Khartoum, the western region of Darfur, where the RSF first emerged, has also been badly affected by the fighting.

The UN has warned that up to 20,000 people - mostly women and children - have fled Sudan to seek safety in Chad, across the border from Darfur.

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2023-04-22 11:14:11Z
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US Supreme Court preserves women's access to abortion pill mifepristone at centre of legal fight - Sky News

Women's access to a widely used abortion pill in the US has been maintained by the Supreme Court during an ongoing legal battle over the drug.

The justices agreed to stay or pause a lower court decision imposing restrictions on the availability of mifepristone during a challenge by anti-abortion groups to its federal regulatory approval.

Mifepristone, which was licensed in 2000, is used in combination with a second drug, misoprostol, and accounts for more than half of all abortions in the US.

President Joe Biden hailed the high court for keeping the pill available while the court fight continues.

"As a result of the Supreme Court's stay, mifepristone remains available and approved for safe and effective use while we continue this fight in the courts," Mr Biden said in a statement.

"The stakes could not be higher for women across America. I will continue to fight politically-driven attacks on women's health.

"But let's be clear - the American people must continue to use their vote as their voice, and elect a Congress who will pass a law restoring the protections of Roe v Wade."

His administration is seeking to defend mifepristone in the face of mounting abortion bans and restrictions imposed by Republican-led states since the Supreme Court in June 2022 overturned the landmark 1973 Roe v Wade decision that had legalised the procedure nationwide.

Opponents argue the Federal Drug Agency (FDA) illegally approved mifepristone and then removed critical safeguards on what they describe as a dangerous drug.

Read more:
What is mifepristone and why could it be banned?
What's changed since the landmark abortion decision was overturned?

Erik Baptist, a lawyer for the conservative religious rights group Alliance Defending Freedom said: "Our case seeking to put women's health above politics continues on an expedited basis in the lower courts."

Carol Tobias of National Right to Life said: "What the courts will see is a drug that does not cure a disease or alleviate the symptoms of a disease.

"It was developed to take the life of an unborn child and always has the potential to harm the mother."

The FDA has called mifepristone safe and effective, highlighted by decades of use by millions of people, with adverse effects exceedingly rare.

Mr Biden said: "I continue to stand by FDA's evidence-based approval of mifepristone, and my administration will continue to defend FDA's independent, expert authority to review, approve and regulate a wide range of prescription drugs."

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Why could abortion pill be pulled in US?

Jessica Ellsworth, a lawyer for the pill manufacturer Danco Laboratories said the Supreme Court's decision "preserves crucial access to a drug relied on by millions of patients" after lower courts had caused "widespread chaos."

Abortion rights groups praised the Supreme Court's decision, but noted the case was ongoing.

The Supreme Court did not rule on the merits of the case meaning that mifepristone could still be restricted or banned at a later stage.

"We're not out of the woods yet," said Nancy Northup of the Centre for Reproductive Rights.

Joshua Sharfstein, a public health professor at Johns Hopkins University and a former FDA official said: "It's the right decision and a huge relief.

"The alternative would have not only undermined access to reproductive health care, it would have thrown into disarray drug regulation in the United States."

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2023-04-22 07:50:02Z
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Sudan fighting: Khartoum violence mapped as civilians flee city - bbc.co.uk

A woman and child in KhartoumGetty Images

Life in Sudan's capital Khartoum has been turned on its head.

Once a bustling metropolis, residents are now living in a war zone. Sudan's army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) are locked in brutal street combat as helicopters and fighter jets roar overhead.

Information coming out of the city is patchy, and access for journalists is difficult in a country where media freedom is already restricted.

But the BBC has combed through dozens of videos, mapped the fighting, and spoken to some of the city's 5.4 million residents to uncover how air strikes and artillery have devastated the heart of Khartoum.

One of them, Dallia Mohamed Abdelmoniem, said the "empty frightened streets" made Khartoum feel like a ghost town, with people "huddled in their houses not knowing what's going to happen next".

Fighting traps civilians in their homes

The BBC has verified videos from Sudan by checking details such as local weather patterns and the positions of visible landmarks including roads, roofs and rivers.

We have been able to locate some of the heaviest fighting, including gun battles and the use of tanks, to heavily populated areas.

Civilians have been badly affected because many targets such as military headquarters and the presidential palace are close to people's homes.

A map showing the locations of fighting around Khartoum, verified by the BBC.

As you can see from the satellite image above, almost all of central Khartoum - south of the Blue Nile - is densely populated. So is Khartoum North, where fighting is also taking place.

Monzir Bashir, a journalist based in Khartoum North, told the BBC he could hear explosions "from all directions" and that he had seen at least four people shot "near the well we bring water from" on Wednesday.

Heba, a Khartoum resident, said that brief lulls between the explosions and gunfire seemed to last an eternity.

"We now fear the silence more than the sounds of the clashes," she said. "Because after the pause, there are even louder bangs."

Below are three verified videos from the city in the past few days.

In the first, a video from Khartoum's Al-Sahafa neighbourhood on Friday shows a black smoke cloud rising over the airport there. The video shows how close residents are to the fighting: Khartoum's international airport is right in the middle of the city, near to several residential areas, hospitals and schools.

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In the second, an explosion is filmed in the early hours of Friday on Al Siteen Street, in central Khartoum - the area has shops, restaurants, a mosque, a school and a playground.

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In the third, soldiers from the armed forces can be seen marching down Al-Ma Una street in Khartoum North towards central Khartoum on Friday. There are no vehicles in the street and the only other people are groups of residents, who appear to be cheering the soldiers.

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As the Muslim festival of Eid al-Fitr dawned in Sudan on Friday morning, marking the end of Ramadan for Muslims in the country, residents told the BBC that fighting had continued, with consistent volleys of gunfire exchanged between 01:00 and 03:00 local time (00:00 and 02:00 BST).

Mahsin Dohab, who lives in eastern Khartoum, told the BBC that an RSF-proposed 72-hour truce to mark the holiday had failed to materialise.

"People cannot go to prayers due to heavy artillery and gunfire... We're heartbroken, all of us," she told the Newsday programme.

Food and water run low

Heba told the BBC that "people who dare to go out just run around to get their basic needs in a rush", and that there was a shortage of groceries and medicines. Goods that remain in stock are three times their normal price.

Explosions have hit key infrastructure and civilians have been left without running water and electricity.

Many people in Khartoum - including the large number fasting during Ramadan - have been forced to brave the fighting to collect water from the White Nile River.

Ms Dohab said her family had been trying to survive without water for the past seven days. "We're basically relying on the kindness of strangers," she said.

Shahd Amjed, who lives in the affluent Kafouri block in Khartoum North, said the government's claims to be in control of the capital did not match the reality on the ground.

Shahd Amjed
Shahd Amjed/BBC
The military say they are in control of everything, but in the street all you see is RSF. There is fear and confusion. Everyone is getting depressed. We really don't know what is.
Shahd Amjed
Resident of Khartoum North

She added that earlier in the week three RSF fighters had broken into her house yard at 02:00 local time. "They didn't harass us but they changed their clothes and left. We found their uniform trousers in the morning."

Hospitals and doctors on their knees

Meanwhile, the situation at the city's hospitals is dire. Doctors told the BBC that the health system was on the brink of complete failure - just as it tries to deal with the more than 3,500 people injured since fighting began, according to World Health Organization figures.

Administrators say hospitals have been hit by air strikes and doctors have warned that fighting between the army and paramilitary troops has stopped them from getting to work.

On Thursday, Médecins Sans Frontières told the BBC that of the city's three major hospitals, Bahari Technical Hospital had closed after shelling and the other two - Umdurman Technical Hospital and Khartoum Technical Hospital - were "barely functional" as doctors couldn't reach them.

According to the Sudanese Doctors Union (SDU), just 23 of the 78 hospitals and medical centres in and around Khartoum remain operational. At least five ambulance crews have been attacked during their duties, it added.

Using a list provided by the SDU, the BBC has mapped the hospitals in the city centre that have been forced to close - as well as some that remain open.

A map showing the status of hospitals around Khartoum, verified by the BBC.

Dr Alaaeldin Nogoud, a doctor based at the Ibn Sina Hospital, shown on the map above, told the BBC that the chaos across the city had caused "a total collapse of the health system in Khartoum".

"At the hospital where I was working there was a bombing from an aircraft the day before yesterday, which meant all the patients had to be evacuated," he said.

"It's completely impacted my ability to provide care. I haven't been able to reach a hospital for the past two days because of the fighting."

Another medic - named Dr Asmaa - is based at the Turkish Teaching Hospital in southern Khartoum, shown on the map. Her hospital was suffering from shortages of everything from power to blood supplies after two emergency caesarean sections consumed reserves, she said.

Doctors were also dealing with harrowing stories from patients.

"I've been receiving many calls and WhatsApp messages from day one of the fighting.

"One call was a pregnant woman who had contractions, and I guess she was pregnant in the second trimester. I don't know how many weeks she was, but due to fear she started bleeding," Dr Asmaa said. The woman eventually lost the baby.

People fleeing met with violence

As the fighting has intensified, many have tried to escape the city - but routes out remain limited and fraught with risk.

Dallia Mohammed Abdelmoniem told the BBC her family "were meant to leave [on Wednesday], but there was intense fighting and we found our cars had been vandalised" which left them trapped in the capital.

On Thursday, BBC reporters observed thousands of people gathering at two bus stations in the capital.

At Al-Souq Al-Sha'by bus station in Omdurman - which adjoins Khartoum to the north-west - civilians were searching for transport to northern Sudan.

Others were meeting at the Mina Al-Berri station in central Khartoum, where they hoped to reach southern and central Sudan.

Some civilians at the stations managed to board the few buses still operating routes out of the city, while others clambered onto flatbed trucks for the journey ahead.

Travelling out is itself dangerous. On Wednesday, one resident told the BBC that the RSF had set up roadblocks around the capital and that paramilitary fighters had stolen his phone and a small amount of cash.

One southern Khartoum resident, Zeirra, told the BBC that her relatives in the central Gezira state sent a bus to collect her. She said she was stopped by RSF militants along the road who checked her documents, but she was allowed to pass. Shortly after, the checkpoint came under attack.

Smoke rising over Khartoum.
Reuters
[The RSF] got attacked by military through air strikes... We were able to hear it on the way. Unfortunate travellers behind were hold hostages by RSF as human barriers.
Zeirra
Resident of Southern Khartoum

And Mahsin Dahab told the BBC that one of her colleagues had been shot dead alongside her family by militants as they tried to flee Khartoum from an area near the centre of the city.

For those that escape the capital, an uncertain future lies ahead, with no end to the conflict in sight.

Speaking to the BBC from her relatives' home in Gezira, Zeirra reflected on the chaos of the past week.

"Never in my life I had thought I'll be leaving home forcibly and [become] an internally displaced person," she said.

"But it is what it is I guess. We are left with nothing but prayers."

Additional reporting by Chloe Kim, Oliver Slow, Jake Horton, Emma Pengelly, James Kelly and Hanan Razek.

Visual journalism by Erwan Rivault.

Editing by Samuel Horti.

The BBC is continuing to investigate video out of Khartoum.

BBC Arabic's Mohamed Osman in Khartoum contributed to his article, and has written about his experiences in the piece below:

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2023-04-22 08:07:09Z
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Jumat, 21 April 2023

Protracted war predicted in Sudan with threat of intervention - Al Jazeera English

Sudan’s violent power struggle between the feared paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the army looks even and could carry on for months, even years, analysts say.

That trajectory threatens to fracture the country as well as splinter the very forces fighting each other.

Over time, experts told Al Jazeera, the army is likely to gain the upper hand in the conflict – thanks to its aerial advantage and the logistical support it receives from Egypt – but not a decisive victory.

However, the RSF will have enough regional help – mostly from the United Arab Emirates  – to survive and fight on.

“Egypt and the Emirates enabled these armies to become what they are: resistant to the population’s calls for democracy and to each other,” said Jonas Horner, an independent researcher specialised in Sudan.

The battle for Sudan’s capital Khartoum is expected to be long and bloody, but the army should capture the city since it has a larger military arsenal, added Sharath Srinivasan, author of When Peace Kills Politics: International Intervention and Unending Wars in the Sudans.

He said the RSF may eventually retreat to its stronghold in the western province of Darfur, as well as infiltrate and capture small pockets of land elsewhere.

“I think the army … can degrade the RSF’s fundamental capability more than the RSF can degrade the army. But the RSF’s reach and strength across the country will persist,” said Srinivasan.

INTERACTIVE_SUDAN_FIGHTING_APRIL18_2023-1681819889

Threats from within

The leader of the RSF, Mohamad Hamdan “Hemedti” Dagalo, is engaged in a zero-sum game for power with top military commander Abdel Fattah al-Burhan.

The former hails from Darfur and was a leader in the Arab “Janjaweed” militias that spearheaded state-backed mass killings in the region from 2003-2009.

In 2013, Sudan’s then-authoritarian leader Omar al-Bashir tasked Hemedti to command RSF, a force designed to thwart military coups and put down counterinsurgencies across the country.

But six years later, Hemedti cooperated with the military to sideline al-Bashir, giving him a clear path to becoming the second most powerful man in the country, behind al-Burhan.

Both men are now fierce enemies despite cooperating to derail the country’s transition to democracy through a coup in October 2021. That marriage was short-lived as each threatened to consolidate power for himself, leading them to turn their guns on each other.

Now as the war persists, the real threat to their rule may emerge from within their own forces, explained Jihad Mashamoun, a political analyst specialising in Sudan.

He told Al Jazeera top military officials in the army, who are tied to the political Islamic movement in Sudan, pressured al-Burhan to defang Hemedti because he threatens their power. He stressed the army’s top brass will not accept any outcome other than the full demobilisation of the RSF and Hemedti’s exile from Sudan.

“I have reason to believe that army officers pressured al-Burhan for this final showdown with the RSF. So if he doesn’t follow through in disintegrating the RSF, then there could be a coup against him,” Mashamoun said.

“I see that only happening if al-Burhan accepts to negotiate with Hemedti without him leaving the country.”

‘The doom scenario’

Hemedti is also vulnerable from within his own ranks – and tribe. The top RSF brass consists of senior officers from the Arab Rizeigat tribe, which hails from Darfur. However, many local leaders in the tribe are suspected to have a greater loyalty towards Musa Hilal, a local sheikh and former Janjaweed leader.

Hilal is a rival of Hemedti. After relations soured between the former and the government, al-Bashir empowered Hemedti to undercut Hilal. In 2017, the RSF was tasked with arresting him and capturing a gold mine he and his supporters controlled in Darfur.

Hilal was eventually released from prison thanks to a pardon by the civilian-military transitional government in March 2021, six months before the coup.

Hilal’s whereabouts are now unknown, but he has his own militia and many supporters in the Rizeigat.  He is also suspected to have loyalists in RSF.

“The observation people are making is the possible disintegration of the RSF from within. The reading is that a lot of Rizeigat fighters would consider allying against Hemedti and with Musa Hilal,” said Anette Hoffmann, a Sudan expert with the Clingendael Institute, an independent think tank in The Hague.

“This is just one component of the doom scenario. Civil war along ethnic lines with regional destabilisation and further disintegration of the RSF, rather than us having two homogenous blocs with clear territorial control,” she added.

Taking sides

With a protracted conflict likely, analysts say the international community must pressure third actors not to join the conflict.

Domestically, both the Justice and Equality Movement and the Sudanese Liberation Movement of Minni Minawi – two rebel groups from Darfur that later backed Hemedti and al-Burhan’s military coup in October 2021 – should be talked out of taking sides, stressed Srinivasan.

He added the forces of the Sudanese People’s Liberation Army – North (SPLA-N), led by Abdel Aziz al-Hilu, should also be urged not to participate in the fighting.

SPLA-N is the strongest rebel group in Sudan and controls significant territory in the Nuba Mountains.

“One of the risks is how armed actors can end up acting opportunistically, which is a really bad scenario because that embroils a much more civil war dynamic where multiple actors are involved. That would be very messy,” said Srinivasan.

Other experts added coordinated efforts must also be made to mitigate the war economy, which means pressuring neighbouring and regional states to remain neutral.

There have already been reports of Egypt stepping up support for al-Burhan, while Libya’s eastern commander Khalifa Haftar has sent at least three planes filled with military aid to the RSF. Ironically, Egypt is one of Haftar’s main backers in Libya.

The conflict risks getting more interwoven with regional rivalries and power struggles, warned Horner.

“In almost all neighbouring countries, there is an al-Burhan supporter and a Hemedti supporter. So, if the [conflict] tilts against one of them, then we could see friends come to the aid of the losing side,” he told Al Jazeera.

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2023-04-21 11:40:39Z
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All Nato members have agreed Ukraine will eventually join, says Stoltenberg - The Guardian

The Nato secretary general, Jens Stoltenberg, has said all member countries have agreed that Ukraine will eventually join the transatlantic military alliance once the war is over, ahead of a meeting of western defence ministers discussing further military aid for Kyiv.

Further announcements on weapons and support are expected after the summit at the Ramstein airbase in Germany, but Stoltenberg also sounded notably upbeat about Ukraine’s longer-term prospects for joining Nato.

“All Nato allies have agreed that Ukraine will become a member,” he said. “President Zelenskiy has a very clear expectation, we discussed this.

“Both the issue of membership but also security guarantees, and of course Ukraine needs security. Because no one can tell when and how this war ends. But what we do know is that when the war ends, we need to ensure that history doesn’t repeat itself.”

Nato membership, carrying with it a commitment from all member countries to protect each other if attacked, has long been a demand from Kyiv. Although Nato agreed in principle in 2008 that Ukraine could be allowed to join, the country has never been given a formal pathway to membership.

The outbreak of fighting with Russia, which dates back to 2014, has also acted as a further deterrent to Nato members because immediate membership for Ukraine would entail an immediate conflict with a nuclear-armed Moscow, which the US and other member states have made clear they will not contemplate.

Zelenskiy is scheduled to attend Nato’s next annual summit in Vilinus, Lithuania, in July, but Ukrainian officials have said they want the alliance to agree a roadmap to membership as a condition for his attendance. Kyiv applied for an accelerated membership last September, seven months after the full invasion started in February.

Stoltenberg had travelled to Kyiv on Thursday, the first time the Nato chief had himself visited the country since the start of the all-out war, where he said the alliance must ensure Ukraine “prevails” in the fighting. His fresh remarks indicate a willingness to edge forward Ukraine’s case for joining.

But one key member cautioned against any rapid development. The German defence minister, Boris Pistorius, said in a Thursday night interview on German television: “The door is open a crack, but this is not the time to decide now.”

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The meeting at Ramstein is expected to run into the afternoon. Its convener, the US defence secretary Lloyd Austin, and the US chair of the joint chiefs of staff, Gen Mark Milley, are scheduled to then hold a press conference.

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2023-04-21 11:37:00Z
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