Rabu, 24 Januari 2024

Ukraine war: Russian plane crash kills all on board as Putin looks to gain allies - The Independent

Moment Russian plane carrying Ukrainian prisoners of war appears to crash

A Russian military plane has crashed near the border of Ukraine while carrying 65 prisoners of war, the Kremlin claimed.

The Ilyushin Il-76 military aircraft appeared to crash in Russia’s Belgorod region, which borders Ukraine, in what the Kremlin said was carrying PoWs.

According to Ukrainskaya Pravda newspaper, Kyiv claimed it downed the plane in a targeted attack and said it was carrying S-300 anti-aircraft missiles used in recent devastating attacks on Kharkiv.

But the Ukrainian defence ministry later said it was “still clarifying information” about the crash as it did not have accurate details.

It comes as at least 18 people were killed and dozens wounded in a Russian missile attack on the Ukrainian cities of Kyiv and Kharkiv.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said strikes throughout the country killed 18 people and injured more than 130 in his nightly video address.

More than 200 sites were hit, including 139 dwellings, with many deaths in “an ordinary high-rise apartment building. Ordinary people lived there,” he said.

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'Highly unlikely' Ukrainian prisoners of war were on board

Mark Voyger, former special adviser for Russian affairs to the US Army Europe, told Sky News the information being released is “sketchy” and it is “highly unlikely” any prisoners of war were on board.

It comes after the Kremlin claimed a Russian military plane has crashed near the border of Ukraine while carrying 65 Ukrainian prisoners of war.

The Ukrainian defence ministry said it was “still clarifying information” about the crash as it did not have accurate details.

Alexander Butler24 January 2024 12:06
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Britons face call-up to fight in the armed forces if UK goes to war with Russia, top army chief warns

Britons face being called up to fight in any future wars because the size of the armed forces is too small, a top army chief will say on Wednesday morning

In a speech, General Sir Patrick Sanders will underline the need for the government to “mobilise the nation” in the event of a conflict with Russia.

He will say that private citizens will have to be called up to fight in the armed forces if a war does break out amid a crisis in the British Army, which is at its smallest size in decades.

Alexander Butler24 January 2024 11:00
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Russian plane crashes on Ukrainian border

A Russian military plane has crashed on the border with Ukraine, according to four pro-Kremlin media outlets.

The Ilyushin Il-76 transport aircraft crashed in Russia’s Belgorod region, which borders Ukraine, reports suggest.

Local governor Vyacheslav Gladkov said that an unspecified “incident” had occurred in the region’s Korochansky district, northeast of Belgorod city, and that he was going to inspect the site.

Belgorod has come under frequent attack from Ukraine in recent months, including a December missile strike which killed 25 people.

<p>File photo of a Ilyushin Il-76 military transport aircraft</p>

File photo of a Ilyushin Il-76 military transport aircraft

Alexander Butler24 January 2024 10:00
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Britons could be called up to fight in Nato war, army warns

Britons could be called up to fight in a war against Russia because the military is too small, the head of the British Army will warn.

General Sir Patrick Sanders will stress the need for the Government to “mobilise the nation” in the event of war with Russia in a speech on Wednesday, according to The Telegraph.

It comes after a senior Nato military official warned that private citizens should prepare for an all-out war with Russia in the next 20 years, which would require wholesale change in their lives.

Alexander Butler24 January 2024 08:55
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Ukraine death toll rises to 18 after major Russian missile attacks on Kyiv and Kharkiv

An onslaught of Russian missiles targeting Ukraine’s two largest cities have killed 18 people and injured 130 others, president Volodymyr Zelensky said.

Russian forces began pounding more than 200 sites in the capital Kyiv and the eastern city of Kharkiv on Tuesday morning, trapping many people under the rubble of collapsed and damaged buildings.

Mr Zelensky said in his nightly video address that around 40 missiles were launched towards Ukrainian cities, out of which “a significant number” were shot down, but many hit their targets.

Alexander Butler24 January 2024 07:51
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ICYMI- The United States is out of money for Ukraine

The United States is out of money for Ukraine, unable to send the ammunition and missiles that the government in Kyiv needs to fend off Russia’s invasion.

With the aid caught up in domestic politics, the Biden administration on Tuesday came empty-handed for the first time as host of the monthly meeting of about 50 nations that coordinate support for Ukraine.

The group was established by Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin in April 2022.

While waiting for Congress to approve more money for Ukraine‘s fight, Washington will look to allies to keep bridging the gap.

“I urge this group to dig deep to provide Ukraine with more lifesaving ground-based air defense systems and interceptors,” Austin said in opening remarks broadcast from his home, where he is recuperating after prostate cancer surgery

.The opening statement by video was the first public appearance from Austin, 70, who appeared slightly gaunt. He was hospitalized for two weeks after complications from the surgery.

After the meeting, Celeste Wallander, assistant defense secretary for international affairs, told reporters that Ukraine‘s ministry of defense is getting reports from its front lines that “units are not do not have the stocks and the stores of ammunition that they require.”

Wallander added: “That is one of the reasons we have been focusing on the need to answer Congress’ questions, so that they are able to move forward on a decision to pass” legislation with the aid.

<p>File: US secretary of defence Lloyd Austin visits NAVCENT in Bahrain</p>

File: US secretary of defence Lloyd Austin visits NAVCENT in Bahrain

Lydia Patrick24 January 2024 07:00
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ICYMI - Nato signs £950m contract so Ukraine has more artillery rounds: ‘The war is now a battle for ammunition’

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has become a “battle for ammunition,” the head of Nato has warned, as the alliance signed a £950 million contract to buy hundreds of thousands of vital artillery rounds to help Kyiv’s battle against Vladimir Putin’s forces.

Nato secretary general Jens Stoltenberg announced that the alliance had signed contracts to purchase 220,000 rounds of 155-millimetre ammunition.

“This is important to defend our own territory, to build up our own stocks, but also to continue to support Ukraine,” Mr Stoltenberg said. “Russia’s war in Ukraine has become a battle for ammunition, so allies must refill their own stocks, as we continue to support Ukraine.”

Mr Stoltenberg said of the Nato deal: “We cannot allow President Putin to win in Ukraine. That would be a tragedy for the Ukrainians and dangerous for all of us.”

Read the full report by Tom Watling...

Lydia Patrick24 January 2024 06:00
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Poland’s Donald Tusk meets Zelensky in Ukraine amid tensions over food exports

He said the leaders reached “an understanding” to resolve through talks any differences between their countries over grain shipments and truck exports.

The war, Mr Tusk said, was a wider struggle between Europe and Russia with repercussions beyond Ukraine and hence a priority for Poland.

Read the full story here

Lydia Patrick24 January 2024 05:00
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Watch - Doomsday clock: Humanity closer than ever to destroying itself, experts say

Doomsday clock: Humanity closer than ever to destroying itself, experts say
Lydia Patrick24 January 2024 04:00
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NATO signs key artillery ammunition contract to replenish allied supplies and help Ukraine

NATO signed on Tuesday a $1.2-billion contract to make tens of thousands of artillery rounds to replenish the dwindling stocks of its member countries as they supply ammunition to Ukraine to help it defeat Russia‘s invasion.

The contract will allow for the purchase of 220,000 rounds of 155-millimeter ammunition, the most widely sought after artillery shell, according to NATO’s support and procurement agency. It will allow allies to backfill their arsenals and to provide Ukraine with more ammunition.

“This is important to defend our own territory, to build up our own stocks, but also to continue to support Ukraine,” NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg told reporters.

“We cannot allow President (Vladimir) Putin to win in Ukraine,” he added. “That would be a tragedy for the Ukrainians and dangerous for all of us.”

Read the full story here...

Lydia Patrick24 January 2024 03:00

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Middle East crisis live: Israel and Hamas closer to ceasefire, reports say; Iraq PM warns US strikes will lead to 'escalation' - The Guardian

Israel and Hamas have moved closer to agreement on a 30-day ceasefire in Gaza when Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners would be released, sources told Reuters, as Israel pressed ahead with its assault on southern Gaza’s main city of Khan Younis.

There is no further information on this story at the moment but we will update when more details come through.

Israeli forces battled Palestinian militants Wednesday near the main hospital in Gaza’s second-largest city of Khan Younis, where medics said hundreds of patients and thousands of displaced people were unable to leave because of the fighting, reports Associated Press (AP).

Reporting from Rafah, an AP journalist said Israel had ordered people to leave a swath of downtown Khan Younis that includes Nasser and two smaller hospitals as it pushed ahead with its offensive against Hamas. The UN humanitarian office said the area was home to 88,000 Palestinians and was hosting another 425,000 displaced by fighting elsewhere.

The aid group Doctors Without Borders said its staff were trapped inside Nasser hospital with about 850 patients and thousands of displaced people because the surrounding roads were inaccessible or too dangerous. Nasser hospital is one of only two hospitals in southern Gaza that can still treat critically ill patients, the group said. Gaza’s Hamas-run health ministry also said the hospital had been isolated.

The Israeli military said its forces were battling militants inside Khan Younis after completing their encirclement of the city the day before. It stated that aircraft were striking targets as part of the operations there and it had also targeted suspected militants in central and northern Gaza.

Thousands of people fled south from Khan Younis on Tuesday toward the town of Rafah, say AP. The UN says about 1.5 million people – around two-thirds of Gaza’s population – are crowded into shelters and tent camps in and around Rafah, which is on the border with Egypt.

Even there, Palestinians have found little safety, with Israel regularly carrying out strikes in and around the town. Palestinian witnesses told AP that in recent days Israeli soldiers and tanks had pushed into parts of Muwasi, a sandy area along the coast that Israel had declared a safe zone, where tens of thousands of people were living in tents without basic services.

At least eight people have been critically injured after Israeli forces targeted a school in Khan Younis that was sheltering hundreds of displaced Palestinians, reports Al Jazeera journalist Hani Mahmoud in Rafah.

Mahmoud writes:

We heard from paramedics and first responders that it was difficult to transfer those injured inside the school to Nasser hospital … despite the fact it was a very short distance.

The intensity of the bombing prevented the ambulance and paramedics from getting to the school … this is what we have been seeing since the early hours of this morning.”

Strikes by the US on Iraqi military positions will lead to “irresponsible escalation” and violate the country’s sovereignty, the prime minister’s office said in a statement on Wednesday, reports Reuters.

The US carried out strikes against three facilities linked to Iran-backed militia on Tuesday, the Pentagon said. Iraq will consider these operations as “aggressive actions” that undermine years of cooperation, the Iraqi government statement added.

Iranian president Ebrahim Raisi will meet Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan on Wednesday. Raisi’s trip to Ankara has twice been delayed. Raisi is pictured speaking at the Gaza conference held in Tehran, Iran on 14 January, 2024.

Iranian president Ebrahim Raisi will arrive in Turkey to meet Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan on Wednesday for twice-delayed talks aimed at ironing out past differences and trying to halt the spread of the Israel-Hamas war.

AFP reports that the rapid pace of the Middle East escalation forced Raisi to delay his visit to Ankara twice. In early January planned talks in Ankara were called off when twin blasts claimed by Islamic State group jihadists killed 89 people at the shrine of assassinated Iranian Revolutionary Guards general Qassem Suleimani.

A trip Raisi had planned for November was cancelled because of conflicting schedules of diplomats involved in consultations over the Gaza war.

Iran’s official IRNA news agency said Raisi would be leading a “high-ranking political and economic delegation” on his first official visit to Turkey since his election in 2021.

The Turkish presidency said the two leaders would appear at a press conference after holdings talks and chairing a meeting of their top ministers during the one-day visit.

Analysts believe the Gaza war has force the two leaders to seek a joint approach to the Middle East and postpone regional disputes.

“Relations between Turkey and Iran have always been complex and multidimensional,” Hakki Uygur, director of Istanbul’s Centre for Iranian Studies told AFP. “Turkey has always able to manage it, to somehow to find a middle ground. I think a similar thing will happen now.”

“It is possible that Raisi and Erdogan might declare some symbolic measure about Palestine out of the meeting,” said Arash Azizi, a professor at Clemson University in South Carolina. “But I think their focus will be mostly on how to contain the conflict and make sure it doesn’t expand further, something that Ankara and Tehran both want.”

US forces bombed sites used by Iran-backed militants in Iraq early Wednesday after a spate of attacks targeting US personnel, Pentagon chief Lloyd Austin said, killing two people, reports AFP citing Iraqi officials.

The strikes came just days after US troops in western Iraq were targeted with ballistic missiles and rockets in an attack the Pentagon blamed on militants supported by Tehran.

According to Iraqi sources cited by the AFP, the US strikes targeted the Hezbollah Brigades, a group affiliated with the Hashed al-Shaabi (Popular Mobilisation force), an alliance of Iran-backed former paramilitary groups now integrated in Iraq’s regular armed forces.

They hit sites in the Jurf al-Sakhr area, south of Baghdad, as well as in the al-Qaim area on the border with Syria where two people were killed and two wounded, an interior ministry official and a former member of the Hashed al-Shaabi said.

Israel kept up its heavy assault on the “encircled” city of Khan Younis after an outpouring of grief over the army’s deadliest single day since ground operations in the territory began, reports Agence France-Presse (AFP).

As the fighting raged, the UN humanitarian agency OCHA reported that Israeli forces on Tuesday had issued fresh evacuation orders for a 4 sq km (1.5 sq mile) segment of Khan Younis currently home to about 513,000 people as well as the major Nasser and al-Amal hospitals.

The office of Palestinian president Mahmud Abbas decried the “dangerous demands” for people to head south, and warned that Israel intended to “displace the Palestinian people from their homeland, thus leading to unforeseeable consequences”, according to official news agency Wafa.

The evacuation orders came as the World Food Programme (WFP) warned that Palestinians were facing “catastrophic food insecurity”, and as the UN chief took Israel to task over its rejection of a two-state solution – seen by ally the US as the only path to a durable peace, says AFP.

The war has led to dire shortages of food, water, fuel and medicines in the besieged territory. In Gaza City, displaced resident Umm Dahud al-Kafarna told AFP the Israeli campaign had left “us with nothing to eat or drink while bombing us from the air, sea and tanks”.

“More than half a million people in Gaza are facing catastrophic food insecurity levels and the risk of famine increases each day,” said Abeer Etefa, the WFP’s senior Middle East spokesperson.

Israel and Hamas have moved closer to agreement on a 30-day ceasefire in Gaza when Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners would be released, sources told Reuters, as Israel pressed ahead with its assault on southern Gaza’s main city of Khan Younis.

There is no further information on this story at the moment but we will update when more details come through.

It’s 9am in Gaza and Tel Aviv and 10am in Sana’a, Yemen. We’ll be handing over to London shortly to continue our coverage of the Middle East crisis, but first, here are some of the latest developments:

  • The US military has carried out two more strikes in Yemen which they say have destroyed two Houthi anti-ship missiles that were aimed at the Red Sea. The US says the Houthis were preparing to launch the missiles. US central command (Centcom) has posted on X that “US forces identified the missiles in Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen and determined that they presented an imminent threat to merchant vessels and the US Navy ships in the region.”

  • The US has carried out strikes in Iraq against targets linked to Iran-backed militia. Associated Press is reporting that three facilities in Iraq were hit by the US military. Defence secretary Lloyd Austin said the strikes were in retaliation for missile and drone attacks on US troops in Iraq and Syria over the past several days. The US strikes hit militia facilities in Jurf al-Sakhar, which is south of Baghdad, al-Qaim and another unnamed site in western Iraq, two US officials told AP.

  • The UN secretary general, António Guterres, on Tuesday said the “clear and repeated rejection of the two-state solution at the highest levels of the Israeli government is unacceptable, as he appealed for more aid access throughout the Gaza Strip. “The entire population of Gaza is enduring destruction at a scale and speed without parallel in recent history,” Guterres told the UN security council. “Nothing can justify the collective punishment of the Palestinian people.”

  • He told the council that the humanitarian situation in the Palestinian enclave was “appalling” and that “the people of Gaza not only risk being killed or injured by relentless bombardments, they also run a growing chance of contracting infectious diseases like hepatitis A, dysentery, cholera.” Guterres again appealed for an immediate humanitarian ceasefire to ensure aid gets to where it is needed, to facilitate the release of hostages and to lower the tensions throughout the Middle East.

  • The Israeli envoy to the UN, Gilad Erdan, faced a walkout by some Arab ambassadors as he started by saying the world was trying to treat cancer with an aspirin, and said those advocating a ceasefire needed to realise it only meant the terror group Hamas would “remain in power, they would regroup and rearm, and soon Israel would face another attempted holocaust.

  • US secretary of state Antony Blinken said on Tuesday that the US was opposed to any permanent change to Gaza’s territory, but kept the door open to possible support for any “transitional arrangements” to resolve the conflict with Israel. “If there needs to be transitional arrangements to enable that to happen, that’s one thing. But when it comes to the permanent status of Gaza going forward, we’ve been clear, we remain clear about not encroaching on its territory,” Blinken told reporters in Abuja, Nigeria.

  • British foreign secretary David Cameron will travel to Israel on Wednesday where he is expected to raise concerns over the high number of Palestinians killed and push for a “sustainable” ceasefire in the Gaza war.

  • Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi is expected to fly to Turkey on Wednesday for twice-delayed talks aimed at ironing out past differences and trying to halt the spread of the Israel-Hamas war.

  • The Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu posted on X pictures of a visit to an IDF base where he told cadets “My main expectation is nothing less than total victory. There is no substitute for victory”.

  • US President Joe Biden has been heckled by protesters at a campaign event in Virginia. Multiple interruptions forced Biden to pause or try to speak over shouts of “Ceasefire now,” and “Genocide Joe” over his support for Israel and its war in Gaza, the Reuters news agency reports.

  • The US has asked China to urge Iran to rein in the Tehran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen over their attacks on commercial ships in the Red Sea. The Financial Times is reporting that the US has seen little sign of help from Beijing, citing US officials.

  • The UN office for the coordination of humanitarian affairs (Ocha) has released their latest update where they are highlighting what’s happening in Khan Younis specifically as fighting intensifies there “Hostilities were particularly intense in Khan Younis, with Israeli forces reported to having surrounded and launched a large-scale operation in the city. Heavy fighting is reported in proximity to hospitals in Khan Younis, including Al Aqsa, Nasser and Al Amal, with reports of Palestinians trying to flee to the southern town of Rafah.”

The United Nations office for the coordination of humanitarian affairs (Ocha) has outlined some of the violence happening in the West Bank in its latest update. It describes the number of Palestinians killed in the West Bank in 2023 as “the highest” since Ocha started recording casualties in 2005.

It also says “the number of Israelis killed in the West Bank and Israel in 2023 in attacks perpetrated by Palestinians from the West Bank was the highest” in the same time frame.

Here’s some of that update on Palestinians killed in the West Bank:

Since 7 October 2023 and as of 23 January 2024, 360 Palestinians have been killed, including 92 children, across the West Bank, including East Jerusalem.

Additionally, two Palestinians from the West Bank were killed while carrying out an attack in Israel on 30 November. Of these 360 fatalities, 350 were killed by Israeli forces, eight by Israeli settlers and two by either Israeli forces or settlers.

The number of Palestinians killed in the West Bank, including East Jerusalem, in 2023 (507) marks the highest number of Palestinians killed in the West Bank since OCHA started recording casualties in 2005. So far in 2024 (as of 23 January), 51 Palestinians, including at least 11 children, have been killed.

On the deaths of Israelis Ocha says:

Since 7 October 2023 and as of 23 January 2024, five Israelis, including four members of Israeli forces, have been killed in Palestinian-perpetrated attacks in the West Bank, including East Jerusalem.

In addition, four Israelis were killed in an attack carried out by Palestinians from the West Bank in West Jerusalem (one of the four was killed by Israeli forces who misidentified him) on 30 November 2023. Another Israeli woman was killed in another attack perpetrated by Palestinians in Israel on 15 January 2024.

The number of Israelis killed in the West Bank and Israel in 2023 in attacks perpetrated by Palestinians from the West Bank (36) was the highest since OCHA started recording casualties in 2005.

The United States has asked China to urge Iran to rein in the Tehran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen over their attacks on commercial ships in the Red Sea.

The Financial Times is reporting that the US has seen little sign of help from Beijing, citing US officials.

The US has repeatedly raised the matter with top Chinese officials in the past three months, the report said.

White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan and his deputy, Jon Finer, discussed the issue in meetings this month in Washington with Liu Jianchao, head of the international liaison department of China’s Communist party, the newspaper said.

The US secretary of state Antony Blinken also raised the issue with his Chinese counterpart, the report said, adding US officials believe there was little evidence that China had put any pressure on Iran to restrain Yemen’s Houthis, beyond a mild statement that Beijing issued last week.

The reports come as the US military carried out strikes in Yemen, destroying two Houthi anti-ship missiles that the US said were aimed at the Red Sea and were preparing to launch.

US President Joe Biden has been heckled by protesters at a campaign event in Virginia.

Multiple interruptions forced Biden to pause or try to speak over shouts of “Ceasefire now,” and “Genocide Joe” over his support for Israel and its war in Gaza, the Reuters news agency reports.

Biden’s support of Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu is costing him support among young voters and other opponents of the war who could play a critical role in the 2024 election, especially in swing states such as Michigan, says Reuters.

“They feel deeply,” Biden said after some of the initial protesters were ushered out of the auditorium.

As the heckling continued from other participants, Biden kept speaking, and warned the audience that the constant interruptions would continue and had clearly been planned. Supporters in the crowd shouted “Four More Years!” to drown out the heckling.

A pro-Palestinian protester holding a “Stop genocide” banner interrupts US President Joe Biden during a campaign even in Manassas, Virginia

David Cameron will return to the Middle East on Wednesday to press for an immediate humanitarian pause in the fighting.

Downing Street said Cameron was expected to raise “the importance of a two-state solution”.

The foreign secretary, who said the situation in Gaza is desperate, is due to visit Qatar, Israel, the West Bank and Turkey.

Lord Cameron, on his second visit to the region since returning to government, will continue to insist no permanent ceasefire can be agreed unless Hamas releases all the remaining hostages, is incapable of firing rockets at Israel, and an agreement exists that allows the Palestinian Authority to return to Gaza and provide services.

His visit comes as Qatar continues to try to mediate between Israel and Hamas on a plan for a two-month ceasefire that would see the release of all hostages and a large number of Palestinian political prisoners.

Some mediators believe that if such a long humanitarian pause was agreed neither side would want to return to war.

Read the rest of our diplomatic editor’s piece on David Cameron’s planned visit here:

There may have been criticism of Israel from the UN chief and other delegates at the security council meeting, but the Israeli prime minister is signalling he is pushing on with the war in Gaza.

Benjamin Netanyahu posted on X pictures of a visit to an IDF base where he told cadets “My main expectation is nothing less than total victory. There is no substitute for victory”.

Along with those latest strikes by the US on Houthi anti-ship missile sites in Yemen, the US launched strikes in Iraq on Tuesday.

“US military forces conducted necessary and proportionate strikes on three facilities used by the Iranian-backed Kataib Hezbollah militia group and other Iran-affiliated groups in Iraq,” the US defence secretary, Lloyd Austin, said in a statement.

“These precision strikes are in direct response to a series of escalatory attacks against US and Coalition personnel in Iraq and Syria by Iranian-sponsored militias,” Austin added.

On Saturday, four US personnel suffered traumatic brain injuries after Iraq’s Ain al-Asad airbase was hit by multiple ballistic missiles and rockets fired by Iranian-backed militants from inside Iraq.

Sources speaking to the Reuters news agency said Tuesday’s strikes in Iraq killed at least two militants, and that four people were wounded.

A reminder of what’s been taking place over the last day – we’ve seen some strong words on Tuesday at the UN security council debate on Gaza.

Patrick Wintour, our diplomatic editor writes:

Israel’s “clear and repeated rejection of the two-state solution” is unacceptable, and could only prolong the conflict in Gaza, the UN secretary general, António Guterres, has said, at the launch of a highly charged security council debate focusing on aid shipments to Gaza.

Gutteres told the meeting in New York on Monday that the denial of a Palestinian state will only embolden extremists everywhere and indefinitely extend the conflict.

“Last week’s clear and repeated rejection of the two-state solution at the highest levels of the Israeli government is unacceptable,” Guterres told the council.

“This refusal, and the denial of the right to statehood to the Palestinian people, would indefinitely prolong a conflict that has become a major threat to global peace and security,” he said.

Multiple speakers from around the globe also had their say, and Patrick sums up their views here:

Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi is expected to fly to Turkey on Wednesday for twice-delayed talks aimed at ironing out past differences and trying to halt the spread of the Israel-Hamas war.

Raisi’s visit to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan comes with the war in Gaza starting to inflame tensions and escalate fighting across the Middle East, says Agence France Presse.

The rapid pace of the Middle East escalation forced Raisi to delay his visit to Ankara twice. His planned talks in Ankara in early January were called off when twin blasts claimed by Islamic State killed 89 people at the shrine of assassinated Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps general Qassem Suleimani.

A trip he had planned for November was cancelled because of conflicting schedules of diplomats involved in consultations over the Gaza war.

The US military has carried out two more strikes in Yemen which they say have destroyed two Houthi anti-ship missiles that were aimed at the Red Sea. The US says the Houthis were preparing to launch the missiles.

US central command (Centcom) has posted on X that “U.S. forces identified the missiles in Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen and determined that they presented an imminent threat to merchant vessels and the U.S. Navy ships in the region.”

Centcom describes the strikes as “self-defence”. These are the latest strikes against the Iran-backed Houthis over its targeting of Red Sea shipping. There was also a larger round of strikes late Monday.

The Houthis, who control the most populous parts of Yemen, have said their attacks on ships are in solidarity with Palestinians as Israel strikes Gaza. The attacks have disrupted global shipping and deepened concern that fallout from the Israel-Hamas war could destabilise the Middle East.

It’s 6:41am in Sana’a, Yemen and 5:41am in Gaza and Tel Aviv. Welcome to our latest blog on the Middle East crisis. I’m Reged Ahmad and I’ll be with you for the next while.

The US says it has carried out new strikes against two Houthi anti-ship missiles in Yemen. US central command (Centcom) has posted on X that “forces conducted strikes against two Houthi anti-ship missiles that were aimed into the Southern Red Sea and were prepared to launch.”

More on that in a moment but first, here’s a summary of the latest events:

  • The United States has carried out strikes in Iraq against targets linked to Iran-backed militia. Associated Press is reporting that three facilities in Iraq were hit by the US military. Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin said the strikes were in retaliation for missile and drone attacks on American troops in Iraq and Syria over the past several days. The US strikes hit militia facilities in Jurf al-Sakhar, which is south of Baghdad, al-Qaim and another unnamed site in western Iraq, two US officials told AP.

  • The United Nations secretary general, António Guterres, on Tuesday said the “clear and repeated rejection of the two-state solution at the highest levels of the Israeli government is unacceptable, as he appealed for more aid access throughout the Gaza Strip. “The entire population of Gaza is enduring destruction at a scale and speed without parallel in recent history,” Guterres told the UN security council. “Nothing can justify the collective punishment of the Palestinian people.”

  • He told the council that the humanitarian situation in the Palestinian enclave was “appalling” and that “the people of Gaza not only risk being killed or injured by relentless bombardments, they also run a growing chance of contracting infectious diseases like hepatitis A, dysentery, cholera.” Guterres again appealed for an immediate humanitarian ceasefire to ensure aid gets to where it is needed, to facilitate the release of hostages and to lower the tensions throughout the Middle East.

  • Speaker after speaker from around the globe but especially the Middle East has lined up to call for an immediate humanitarian ceasefire and rapid pathway move to a two state solution, writes our diplomatic editor Patrick Wintour.

  • The Israeli envoy to the UN, Gilad Erdan, faced a walkout by some Arab ambassadors as he started by saying the world was trying to treat cancer with an aspirin, and said those advocating a ceasefire needed to realise it only meant the terror group Hamas would “remain in power, they would regroup and rearm, and soon Israel would face another attempted holocaust.

  • US secretary of state Antony Blinken said on Tuesday that the United States was opposed to any permanent change to Gaza’s territory, but kept the door open to possible support for any “transitional arrangements” to resolve the conflict with Israel. “If there needs to be transitional arrangements to enable that to happen, that’s one thing. But when it comes to the permanent status of Gaza going forward, we’ve been clear, we remain clear about not encroaching on its territory,” Blinken told reporters in Abuja, Nigeria.

  • British foreign secretary David Cameron will travel to Israel on Wednesday where he is expected to raise concerns over the high number of Palestinians killed and push for a “sustainable” ceasefire in the Gaza war.

  • The United Nations office for the coordination of humanitarian affairs (Ocha) has released their latest update where they are highlighting what’s happening in Khan Younis specifically as fighting intensifies there “Hostilities were particularly intense in Khan Younis, with Israeli forces reported to having surrounded and launched a large-scale operation in the city. Heavy fighting is reported in proximity to hospitals in Khan Younis, including Al Aqsa, Nasser and Al Amal, with reports of Palestinians trying to flee to the southern town of Rafah.”

  • Whatever the future of a post-Gaza war looks like, it cannot include the leaders of Hamas, the US national security council spokesperson, John Kirby, said. In a press briefing at the White House, Kirby also said the US was involved in “active conversations” on the release of more hostages held by Hamas in Gaza, Reuters reports.

  • The United States would support another “pause” – temporary ceasefire – in Israel’s war on Hamas in Gaza, such as a 30, 60 or 90-day period, the White House has just said. The US national security council spokesperson, John Kirby, is briefing right now in the west wing at the regular media press conference with him and the White House press secretary, Karine Jean-Pierre.

  • Aid trucks continue to have difficulty reaching people in southern Gaza, from Egypt and, via multiple aid agency reports, are not able to get to many parts of central and northern Gaza at all. Trucks are blocked for security checks and become severely backed up prior to reaching inside Gaza.

  • The United States has destroyed or degraded over 25 Houthi missile launch facilities and more than 20 missiles in Yemen since it started strikes in the country earlier this month, the Pentagon said on Tuesday.

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New Hampshire primary: Nikki Haley fights on, but this is Trump's party now - BBC

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Donald Trump has won the New Hampshire primary, defeating his last remaining rival for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination, former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley.

His victory means the race for the nomination is all but over, even if Ms Haley is not yet ready to end her campaign - a fact that clearly irked the former president on what was otherwise an evening of celebration.

"She's doing... a speech like she won," he said of his rival, who pledged to stay in the race earlier in the evening. "She didn't win. She lost."

A rematch in November's general election with President Joe Biden, the likely Democratic candidate, now looks more certain.

Although Mr Trump's victory in New Hampshire did not match the 20-point margin that was predicted by recent polls, it should be more than enough to maintain the current direction of the race.

He won by a landslide in the first contest in Iowa. And the upcoming states on the Republican primary calendar tilt more heavily in his favour than New Hampshire, suggesting his march towards the nomination will soon become a stampede.

With each passing vote, a truth becomes increasingly clear. As polls for many months have shown, the Republican Party is still Donald Trump's party.

His base's loyalty is unwavering, through dramas both legal and political. His brand of conservative populism is in step with his party's voters, as is his focus on issues like immigration, crime and energy.

That may not deter Ms Haley in the short term, but the reality is that New Hampshire was her best shot to disrupt Mr Trump's steady march toward the Republican presidential nomination.

She spent tens of millions of dollars here and had the endorsement of the state's popular Republican governor, but New Hampshire's independent voters and large proportion of college graduates were not enough to deliver victory.

Ms Haley is now looking ahead to the primary in her home state of South Carolina next month. To get there, however, she will need the campaign contributions to keep flowing.

Even with a better-than-expected finish that is no guarantee, given that her long odds of winning the nomination just got even longer, with huge Trump polling leads in many of the remaining states.

If she does stay afloat, she may not get a particularly warm homecoming. Mr Trump has the endorsement of most of South Carolina's Republican establishment, and he has a commanding lead in the polls. It was a point the former president was quick to point out in his Tuesday night speech.

"We'll head out to South Carolina where I think we're gonna win easily," he said in front of a cheering crowd in the city of Nashua.

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A drubbing in her old stomping ground would be an ignominious way to end what has been a relatively successful campaign for Ms Haley. It is a fate she may ultimately choose to avoid, but she has a month to try to turn that around.

Even if Ms Haley does ultimately throw in the towel in the days ahead, the New Hampshire results should cause some concern among Mr Trump's team.

A Fox News voter analysis found 32% of those who participated in the Republican primary would not vote for him in November's general election if he wins the nomination. Only 49% said they would consider themselves a Maga supporter - a reference to the former president's Make America Great Again campaign slogan.

A CBS exit survey also paints a picture of Mr Trump's support base, but it also shows its limitations. Among self-identified "very conservative voters", the former president won 88%. He carried 66% of primary voters with no college degree and evangelical Christian voters by a similar margin.

He won only 23% of moderates and 39% of college graduates - groups he will have to appeal to if he wants to beat President Biden.

And after Tuesday night's results, that 2020 presidential rematch seems much more likely, even if that is a prospect polls suggest many Americans do not welcome.

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Selasa, 23 Januari 2024

New Hampshire primary: Nikki Haley vows to fight on after second loss to Trump - BBC

Nikki Haley, former governor of South Carolina and 2024 Republican presidential candidate, during a New Hampshire primary election night watch party in Concord, New Hampshire, US, on Tuesday, Jan. 23, 2024Getty Images

Republican presidential hopeful Nikki Haley has vowed to press on with her campaign in the wake of a second consecutive loss to Donald Trump.

Ms Haley toured much of New Hampshire ahead of Tuesday's primary, courting both independent and moderate Republican voters.

But she was unable to catch Mr Trump, who had a comfortable 10-point lead with most ballots counted.

The former president last week won a landslide in Iowa's caucuses.

Days later, Ms Haley became the last remaining rival to Mr Trump, with the sudden departure of Florida Governor Ron DeSantis from the Republican field.

At an election night party in Concord on Tuesday night, Ms Haley conceded the New Hampshire race, congratulating Mr Trump on his win.

But she vowed to take her bid to become the Republican party's presidential candidate back home to South Carolina, the state where she served as governor.

"New Hampshire is first in the nation," Ms Haley said to a boisterous room of supporters. "It is not the last in the nation.

"This race is far from over. There are dozens of states left to go. And the next one is my sweet state of South Carolina."

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Mr Trump did not seem to take well to the speech, calling her "delusional" at his own election night party. "Who the hell was that imposter that went up on that stage that went before and claimed victory?" he said.

Team Haley hit back almost immediately, describing his speech as a "furious and rumbling rant".

"If Mr Trump is in such good shape, why is he so angry?" the campaign said in a statement.

For months, Ms Haley remained cautious in her criticism of Mr Trump, the prohibitive frontrunner and her former boss.

But in New Hampshire last weekend, as she campaigned through her 52nd birthday, the former UN ambassador made her most pointed attacks to date, warning of his friendships with "dictators", questioning his mental acuity and slamming his "lies".

Exit polls from CBS News, the BBC's US partner, showed her 11th-hour sprint may have paid off - two-thirds of voters who made their decision in the last few days voted for her. And Ms Haley outperformed opinion polls that had shown her trailing Mr Trump by around 20 points.

Still, despite the Granite State's sizable bloc of independent voters - those who were considered likely to favour Ms Haley - she could not fully close the considerable ground between herself and the former president.

"Nikki put in the time, put in the work and put in the money," said Katon Dawson, a Haley surrogate and the former chairman of the South Carolina Republican party. "With that said, Donald Trump is an 800 pound gorilla that has his arms around the base."

Across New Hampshire ahead of the primary, some members of that base told the BBC they thought Ms Haley was insufficiently conservative. Others said they liked her personally, but that they would not waver in their support for Mr Trump.

"I'm not sure about some of her policies," said Pat Hansen on Tuesday in Manchester. And it reflected poorly on Ms Haley, she believed, that top Republicans in South Carolina had turned their backs on her and endorsed Mr Trump.

Ms Haley is opting out of the third Republican contest - caucuses in Nevada - meaning her next major match-up with Mr Trump is several weeks away, in South Carolina's primary on 24 February.

There, she hopes to be welcomed by a loyal base of voters who twice sent her to the governor's mansion.

"She's got a track record here," said Bill Nettles, a Democrat who served as a top prosecutor in the state while Ms Haley was governor. "She left office very popular."

But even with her close ties to the state, opinion polls show Ms Haley trailing Mr Trump by 30-plus points.

Experts said a loss in her political backyard would likely be fatal to her campaign.

"The momentum is moving toward Trump rapidly and he's likely going to close the nomination early," said veteran Republican strategist Ron Bonjean. "There's little doubt now."

And there's this daunting piece of political trivia for Ms Haley: no Republican candidate has ever won the first two states and not gone on to become the Republican nominee.

Additional reporting by Kayla Epstein

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Doomsday Clock unchanged at 90 seconds to midnight - amid 'unprecedented level of risk' - Sky News

The Doomsday Clock remains at 90 seconds to midnight, the experts predicting the likelihood of a global catastrophe have said.

It comes after a year that saw conflict in Ukraine rage on and war in the Middle East flare up.

Scientists say there is a "continuing unprecedented level of risk" from threats including war, the climate crisis and the "dramatic advance" of AI.

The countdown is a metaphor for global collapse agreed on by experts at the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists.

In 2023, the clock was set at 90 seconds to midnight - the closest to global collapse it has ever been.

While the clock has not edged closer to midnight this year, scientists warned that was not an indication of stability.

Rachel Bronson, president of the bulletin, said: "Make no mistake: resetting the clock at 90 seconds to midnight is not an indication that the world is stable. Quite the opposite.

"It's urgent for governments and communities around the world to act," she added, saying the board was "inspired" by younger generations leading the charge.

"The war in Ukraine and the widespread and growing reliance on nuclear weapons increase the risk of nuclear escalation," the board said in a statement.

"China, Russia, and the United States are all spending huge sums to expand or modernise their nuclear arsenals, adding to the ever-present danger of nuclear war through mistake or miscalculation."

It also pointed to the threat of the climate crisis, with 2023 the hottest year on record and "massive floods, wildfires, and other climate-related disasters affect[ing] millions of people around the world".

Other influencing factors were "rapid and worrisome developments in the life sciences" and the advance of AI, both of which the board said governments were making only "feeble attempts" to control.

Governor Jerry Brown, executive chair of the bulletin, compared world leaders to the Titanic's crew, "steering the world toward catastrophe-more nuclear bombs, vast carbon emissions, dangerous pathogens, and artificial intelligence".

"Only the big powers like China, America, and Russia can pull us back. Despite deep antagonisms, they must cooperate - or we are doomed."

The clock is set by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists
Image: The clock is set by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists

Humanity still closer than ever to catastrophe

The change in 2023 of 10 seconds was the due to the "mounting dangers of the war in Ukraine", the board of experts said.

It had been at 100 seconds to midnight since 2020.

The bulletin said Russia's "thinly veiled threats to use nuclear weapons" indicated a "terrible risk" of conflict escalating.

They also pointed towards the focus on developing nuclear capabilities by China, North Korea, Iran and India.

Other influences on the decision to move the countdown forward included the climate crisis, bio-threats such as COVID-19, and disinformation and disruptive technology.

In 2020, "two simultaneous existential dangers of nuclear war and climate change" were cited as reasons for the change.

Read more:
What is the Doomsday Clock and how is it set?
Where you should head to survive an apocalypse

History of the clock

The Doomsday Clock was created in 1947 by experts at the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists who had worked on the Manhattan Project to design and build the first atomic bomb.

They set up the clock to provide a simple way of showing the danger to the Earth and humanity posed by nuclear Armageddon.

The bulletin is an independent non-profit organisation run by some of the world's most prominent scientists.

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