Kamis, 18 April 2024

Ukraine warns of WW3 ahead of long-stalled Congress aid vote - BBC

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Ukraine's prime minister has told the BBC there will be a "Third World War" if Ukraine loses its conflict with Russia, as he urged the US Congress to pass a long-stalled foreign aid bill.

Denys Shmyhal expressed "careful optimism" that US lawmakers would pass the hotly contested measure, which has $61bn (£49bn) earmarked for Kyiv.

The House of Representatives is set to vote on the package this Saturday.

The proposal includes funding for Israel as well as the Indo-Pacific.

Russia says any fresh American aid for Ukraine will not make a difference on the battlefield, as situation on the front line is looking "unfavourable" to Kyiv.

Speaking to the BBC in Washington DC on Wednesday, Ukrainian Prime Minister Shmyhal said of the US security assistance: "We need this money yesterday, not tomorrow, not today."

"If we will not protect... Ukraine will fall," he added. "So the global, the global system of security will be destroyed... and all the world will need to find... a new system of security.

"Or, there will be many conflicts, many such kinds of wars, and in the end of the day, it could lead to the Third World War."

This is not the first time Ukraine has issued such an alarming warning about the consequences of its potential defeat.

Last year, President Volodymyr Zelensky said that if Russia won the conflict, it could next invade Poland, triggering World War Three.

But Kremlin officials have ridiculed such claims as Western scaremongering. Last month President Vladimir Putin dismissed suggestions that Russia might one day attack Eastern Europe as "complete nonsense".

Russia has never attacked a country within Nato, which includes Poland. Nato's collective defence pact means that an attack on one member constitutes an attack on all.

In Wednesday's interview, Prime Minister Shmyhal was asked about a recent claim by Republican House Foreign Affairs Chairman Michael McCaul that members of his own party were being "infected" by Russian propaganda.

Mr Shmyhal said: "We should understand that disinformation and propaganda is influencing here in the United States on many people, in European Union on many people, such as in Ukraine."

Opposition from the right wing of the Republican party has blocked potential assistance to Ukraine for months.

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Some of those lawmakers have objected to sending tens of billions of dollars in aid overseas, without first passing funds for US-Mexico border security.

These conservatives have also dismissed as smears any suggestion that they could be Kremlin dupes.

President Joe Biden said in a statement on Wednesday he would sign the package into law immediately once passed by Congress "to send a message to the world: We stand with our friends".

Ukraine is critically dependent on weapon supplies from the US and the West to keep fighting Russia, which has superior numbers and an abundance of artillery ammunition.

Months of congressional impasse have already had profound effects on the battlefield.

Ukraine has found itself outmanned and outgunned and forced into retreat because of ammunition rationing and falling morale.

In February, it retreated from Avdiivka, a town near occupied Donetsk that it had held since the conflict began in 2014.

Oleksandr Tarnavskyi, a general overseeing the withdrawal, cited a 10-to-one artillery ammunition advantage for his enemies and said pulling back after months of fighting was "the only correct solution".

President Zelensky blamed an "artificial deficit of weapons" as he made urgent appeals for more military aid to avoid a "catastrophic" situation.

APRIL 16: Soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from the unit of the mobile air defense group shoot down enemy drones using the ZU-23-2 Soviet 23-mm twin anti-aircraft gun on April 16, 2024 in an undisclosed location in Ukraine. (Photo by Kostiantyn Liberov/Libkos/Getty Images)
Getty Images

President Biden has cited "dwindling supplies as a result of congressional inaction" as a reason for the retreat.

Avdiivka's loss was the heaviest for Ukraine since its troops pulled out of Bakhmut in May 2023.

Both came after months of attritional warfare in which Russian forces levelled buildings with massed artillery and poured waves of troops into the frontline.

General Sir Richard Barrons, a former commander of the UK's Joint Forces Command, recently stated he feared that Ukraine could face defeat this year unless it was given the weapons and ammunition it needed to secure its lines.

"We are seeing Russia batter away at the front line, employing a five-to-one advantage in artillery, ammunition, and a surplus of people," he said.

"Ukraine may come to feel it can't win. And when it gets to that point, why will people want to fight and die?"

Both sides have suffered heavy losses in the battles but mounting casualties have left Ukraine, unlike Russia, with a shortage of manpower.

The government earlier this month lowered the age of conscription from 27 to 25 in an effort to raise hundreds of thousands of new recruits.

President Zelensky has said 31,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed since 2022. US officials, however, believe at least 70,000 have died and many more are injured.

A BBC investigation calculates that at least 50,000 Russian troops have been killed. Tens of thousands are believed to have been injured.

Russia has transformed its industrial base into a wartime economy - spending 40% of its national budget on armaments while striking deals with Iran and North Korea for ammunition, missiles and drones.

Map showing Chernihiv

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2024-04-18 11:22:35Z
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Europe live: Ukrainian prime minister warns of possibility of world war three if Ukraine loses war - The Guardian

Speaking to the BBC, the Ukrainian prime minister, Denys Shmyhal, warned of the possibility of a third world war.

Addressing the issue of US security assistance, he said: “We need this money yesterday, not tomorrow, not today.”

“If we will not protect … Ukraine will fall,” he added. “So the global, the global system of security will be destroyed … and all the world will need to find … a new system of security.

“Or, there will be many conflicts, many such kinds of wars, and in the end of the day, it could lead to the third world war,” he said.

The Turkish foreign ministry has issued a statement criticising the EU’s leaders for their conclusions on relations with Ankara as “yet another example of the EU’s lack of strategic vision on Türkiye and the global developments.”

“Türkiye will never accept an approach that links progress in Türkiye-EU relations to the Cyprus issue,” the ministry said.

“Türkiye, as a candidate country, remains committed to membership to the EU. However, we reject the selective limitation of the bilateral cooperation to certain areas. In the coming period, we will review our dialogue with the EU on the basis of reciprocity, taking into account the pace, level and scope of the EU’s steps towards Türkiye,” it added.

Gitanas Nausėda, the Lithuanian president, has stressed that “the example of allied actions to defend Israel must lead to boosted air defense for Ukraine.”

“Ukrainian cities are getting attacked on a daily basis while their skies remain unprotected. European air defense coalition for Ukraine might be a game changer,” he added.

Ulf Kristersson, the Swedish prime minister, has said the “EU must get back to the core of the single market.”

“We need simpler, better and less regulations, lower trade barriers for services and more trade deals,” he added.

“Ukraine needs our help now,” the Estonian prime minister, Kaja Kallas, said.

“If you look away, it will cost more. Security and prosperity in Europe and the U.S. are tied. Giving Ukraine aid saves American jobs and tax dollars,” she added.

The Ukrainian foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba, has meet with his American counterpart, Antony Blinken.

“We both emphasized the urgent need for the U.S. Congress to pass the supplemental aid package for Ukraine. This will send a message of strength and confidence, allowing Ukraine to save lives and improve the situation on the battlefield,” Kuleba said.

The EU has edged closer to calling for an immediate ceasefire in the Middle East after a meeting of the 27 bloc leaders last night.

Leaders have struggled to agree language from the outset of the conflict, engaging in torturous discussions over whether they should use the word ceasefire, pause, or pauses in the first official bloc-wide declaration in October.

Although piggybacking on a UN resolution, Ireland’s taoiseach indicated the significance of the hardened up language in the official communique issued last night reiterating “commitment to work with partners to end the crisis in Gaza without delay and implement United Nations Security Council Resolution 2728, including through reaching an immediate ceasefire and the unconditional release of all hostages”.

“I welcome the language that has been agreed around ceasefire, not pause but ceasefire, I think that is important,” said Simon Harris, Ireland’s taoiseach.

The Latvian prime minister, Evika Siliņa, said leaders last night said they would prepare further sanctions against Belarus in relation to circumvention of the existing sanctions against Russian allies of Vladimir Putin and trade in goods for the Kremlin’s war machine.

“We discussed yesterday that the benefits of [Russian] frozen assets should be used for the gain of Ukraine. We are ready as well to deal with sanctions not just against Russia but as well against Belarus, because Belarus is being used by Russia to not comply with the sanctions,” she said on arrival at the EU leaders summit.

The Lithuanian president, Gitanas Nausėda, said the leaders spoke about concerns about Russia and Iran working together in the Middle East.

They agreed sanctions against Iran last night on missiles and drones and will now expand the existing Russian sanctions list against those supporting Iran, leaders said.

“We had the opportunity to talk about Iran’s engagement in the war with Ukraine and I think it should be one of the reasons why we have to introduce and expand the sanctions to Iran. Not only because of Iran’s role in the conflict in the Middle East but also because of Iran’s role in the war in Ukraine.

“On the one hand we are supporting Ukraine and on the other Iran is standing on the other side of the conflict and this is not acceptable for the European Union as a whole,” the Lithuanian leader told reporters on arrival.

Speaking to the BBC, the Ukrainian prime minister, Denys Shmyhal, warned of the possibility of a third world war.

Addressing the issue of US security assistance, he said: “We need this money yesterday, not tomorrow, not today.”

“If we will not protect … Ukraine will fall,” he added. “So the global, the global system of security will be destroyed … and all the world will need to find … a new system of security.

“Or, there will be many conflicts, many such kinds of wars, and in the end of the day, it could lead to the third world war,” he said.

Charles Michel, the European Council president, opened today’s session.

He welcomed Enrico Letta, who prepared a report on the future of Europe’s single market for the leaders’ consideration.

Today’s talks will focus on competitiveness.

Michel told leaders that “we face several serious challenges: climate change and the green deal, digital revolution, the need to invest in security and defence, and on top of that, we know that we have some demographic challenges that we need to take into account.”

“It means that the single market and the economic base is our best asset, it’s our best strength, and we need to identify what we should do to make sure that this asset can be developed, can be used so that we address the different challenges.”

The prime ministers of Malta and Spain met bilaterally ahead of leaders’ discussions today.

“From fostering peace to prioritising humanitarian aid, stability remains paramount for our Mediterranean region,” the Maltese leader, Robert Abela, said.

Croatia’s ruling conservative party won the most seats in parliamentary elections, but not enough to form a government, according to almost complete official results.

The prime minister, Andrej Plenković’s Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) has won 60 seats in the 151-member assembly, results from more than 90% of the polling stations have showed. In the previous 2020 election, the party won 66 seats.

A centre-left coalition led by the Social Democrats (SDP) won 42 seats, and the nationalist rightwing Homeland Movement party came third, with 14 seats.

Turnout was 60%, compared with 47% during the 2020 vote and followed a bitter campaign between Plenković, and leftwing populist president Zoran Milanović, who campaigned despite a court warning.

Plenković has repeatedly accused Milanović of being “pro-Russian” due to his criticism of EU backing for Ukraine against Moscow’s invasion and the president’s opposition to training Ukrainian soldiers in Croatia, which is a Nato member.

Milanović, who has condemned Russia’s campaign in Ukraine, has argued that he was protecting Croatian interests by preventing the country from being “dragged into war”.

Agence France-Presse

Read the full story here.

Enrico Letta, a former Italian prime minister and the author of a report the leaders are discussing on the economy, said “there’s no time to waste.”

“The gap between the European Union and the US in terms economic performance is becoming bigger and bigger,” he said when arriving for the leaders’ meeting.

He argued for eliminating fragmentation, starting with energy, telecoms and financial markets.

Like Poland’s Donald Tusk, the Estonian prime minister, Kaja Kallas, has been pushing fellow EU leaders to do more to help Ukraine.

“Israel’s success in intercepting Iran’s attack shows the power of cooperation and help from partners. It must also remind us to help Ukraine,” she said last night.

Police Bavarian have arrested two men on suspicion of spying for Russia, Deutsche Welle reports.

The German Federal Prosecutor’s Office said they are accused of preparing explosives, among other things.

Arriving for the second day of the meeting, the European Council president, Charles Michel, said that competitiveness is a fundamental issue for Europe, and that the EU is facing a complicated challenge.

“I’m optimistic that we’ll agree on ambitious conclusions. We need to put in place a new competitiveness deal, this is the purpose, this is the goal,” he said.

Donald Tusk, the Polish prime minister, has issued another one of his sharply-worded posts criticising Europe’s approach to defence.

“If all the words that were said in the last years here in Brussels about common defence, could be changed into bullets and rocket launchers, Europe would have become the strongest power in the world. And the safest place,” he said.

European leaders are continuing their talks today, with a focus on the future of the European economy.

Good morning and welcome back to the Europe blog.

Send thoughts and tips to lili.bayer@theguardian.com.

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Dubai airport slowly re-opening as UAE rainfall persists - BBC

Passengers wait for their flights at the Dubai International Airport in DubaiGetty Images

Operations at Dubai airport remain severely disrupted as heavy rains continue to batter the United Arab Emirates and neighbouring countries.

The storm pounded the UAE on Tuesday, flooding roads and the sections of the busy international airport.

Flash floods have now killed 20 people in Oman and one in the UAE.

Some inbound flights have resumed on Thursday, but on the whole Dubai international airport, a major travel hub, is barely functional.

Authorities at the world's second-busiest airport said on Thursday that they had started receiving inbound flights at Terminal 1, used by foreign carriers, but that outbound flights continue to be delayed.

They later announced that check-in was open at Terminal 3 for Emirates - the single largest carrier at the airport, and flydubai flights.

But they warned that a large number of travellers were waiting to check in and long delays were expected.

Posting on X, formerly known as Twitter, early on Thursday, officials urged people toproceed to the airport only if they had confirmed bookings.

The head of Dubai airport, Paul Griffiths, said: "It remains an incredibly challenging time. In living memory, I don't think anyone has ever seen conditions like it."

The surrounding roads remain gridlocked because of overcrowding with people trying to reach the airport.

On Wednesday, about 300 flights were cancelled and hundreds more were delayed.

The UAE recorded its heaviest rainfall in recorded history.Up to 259.5mm (10.2in) of rain fell on the usually arid country on Tuesday.

The state-run news agency called the rain "a historic weather event" that surpassed "anything documented since the start of data collection in 1949".

Anne Wing, a British tourist who was with her husband and three children hoping to fly to London Heathrow, said: "It's horrific, we are squashed in like animals - it is dangerous and inhumane."

She added: "Passengers were shouting and rioting at the connection desk, there were no staff to be seen."

She said her family had not eaten since lunchtime, and all that had been provided were some "small cartons of water".

Airport authorities say that the staff are facing difficulties to get food to stranded passengers as all the roads leading to the airport are blocked by flood waters.

As many road closures are still in place, some motorists remain trapped in vehicles or stranded on the roadside due to the rising water levels around them.

Al Arabiya TV reported that in Ras al-Khaimah a 70-year-old man died after his vehicle was swept away by strong current.

Emergency services worked to clear the waterlogged roads on Thursday to assess people trapped in traffic, offices and homes.

The main road that connects Dubai with Abu Dhabi - the capital of the UAE - was closed in the Abu Dhabi direction.

Many stranded passengers at Dubai airport have taken to social media, urging for more information.

Other "very anxious" and disoriented passengers, some travelling with young children, have posted that despite confirmed booking, their tickets are not being processed, because "check-in/bag drop/passport control [are] not open."

The airport, which last year served more than 80 million passengers, second only to Atlanta in the United States, warned recovery would take "some time".

The United Arab Emirates experienced its heaviest downpour since records began in 1949
Getty Images

Roads to hard-hit communities and facilities remain flooded and footage on social media showed dozens of submerged vehicles and long traffic jams. Most supermarkets and shopping malls also remain closed, and home delivery services are largely out of action.

Authorities have warned that more thunderstorms, heavy rain and strong winds were forecast. In Oman, more than 1,400 people have been evacuated to shelters, while schools and government offices have been closed.

The UAE's president, Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan has ordered a review of the country's infrastructure impacted by the severe weather. He asked authorities to assess the damage and provide support to affected families, including transferring them to safe locations.

Videos online nevertheless showed people wading through floodwater to reach their abandoned cars to check if they would start.

In a conciliatory message on X, Dubai's ruler, Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, said: "Crises reveal the strength of countries and societies... and the natural climate crisis that we experienced showed great care, awareness, cohesion and love for every corner of the country from all its citizens and residents."

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University of Reading denies cloud seeding caused extreme flooding in Dubai - The Telegraph

The University of Reading has denied that its cloud-seeding technique was to blame for extreme flooding in Dubai after the worst rainfall since records began in 1949.

Meteorology experts at the university have been working with the United Arab Emirates (UAE) over the past few years on a project to electrically charge clouds, and produce raindrops.

On Sunday, two days before the region had a year-and-a-half’s worth of rainfall in one day (5.6 inches), the UAE carried out cloud-seeding efforts, according to flight-tracking data, analysed by AP.

Several cloud-seeding planes were flown in the days leading up to the unprecedented weather, Ahmed Habib, a meteorologist at the UAE’s National Center for Meteorology told Bloomberg.

“For any cloud that’s suitable over the UAE you make the operation,” Mr Habib said.

The heavy rains that caused flooding across the desert nation stemmed partly from cloud seeding, a Bloomberg columnist claimed.

UAE officials confirmed that a cloud-seeding operation was performed before the extreme floods
UAE officials confirmed that a cloud-seeding operation was performed before the extreme floods Credit: National Centre of Meteorology

The National, a state-linked newspaper in Abu Dhabi, quoted an anonymous official from UAE’s National Center for Meteorology (NCM) on Wednesday, as saying that no cloud seeing took place on Tuesday, the day of the rainfall.

They did confirm that the operation was performed on Sunday and Monday.

More than 5.6 inches of rain soaked Dubai over 24 hours on Tuesday. The average annual amount at the airport is 3.7 inches.

Thousands of British travellers were left stranded at Dubai International Airport as runways and access roads were blocked by surging water.

Many passengers spent the night sleeping in airport lounges after roads to nearby hotels were blocked.

Drivers were seen swimming from their cars and an elderly Emirati man in his 70s died on Tuesday morning when his vehicle was caught in flash floods.

In neighbouring Oman, 19 people died after three consecutive days of heavy rain.

Ahmed Habib, a meteorologist at the NCM told Bloomberg that several cloud-seeding planes were flown in the days before the extreme weather.

But the University of Reading said that even if cloud seeding had been carried out in the days running up to the storm it could not have caused such a deluge.

The team also said that UAE had been using chemical seeding rather than the electrical charge technique developed in Britain.

Drivers were seen swimming from their cars after the floods in Dubai
Drivers were seen swimming from their cars after the floods in Dubai Credit: Christopher Pike/Bloomberg
A Reading University meteorologist said cloud seeding did not influence the rainfall in the UAE
A Reading University meteorologist said cloud seeding did not influence the rainfall in the UAE Credit: ALI HAIDER/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock

Professor Maarten Ambaum, a meteorologist at Reading, who works closely with NCM, said: “The UAE does have an operational cloud seeding programme to enhance the rainfall in this arid part of the world; however, there is no technology in existence that can create or even severely modify this kind of rainfall event.

“Any seeding operation has a fairly short-lived – a few hours at the very most, and small-scale effect.

“So even if they had had some operational seeding activities in the days before, then they would not have been able to influence this particular weather system.

He added: “This was a large-scale weather system, well predicted, and cloud seeding would not have been able to influence this in any substantial way. There has never been any scientific evidence that seeding can change climate or cause long-term consequences.”

The weather board urged residents to stay away from areas of flooding and water accumulation
The weather board urged residents to stay away from areas of flooding and water accumulation Credit: BACKGRID
Heavy rain is an unusual event in the desert country
Heavy rain is an unusual event in the desert country Credit: Jules Annan/Backgrid

The UAE carries out more than 1,000 hours of cloud seeding each year, to improve its annual rainfall, lower heat-related deaths and boost drinking water supplies.

Cloud seeding works by firing salt flares into the cloud to try and speed up condensation, which in turn creates rainfall. Experts at Reading are also working with the UAE on the electric charge method that makes the droplets stick to each other, helping the growth rate.

The Reading team said the downpours were the result of medium-sized thunderstorms sparked by massive thunderclouds, which had formed when heat drew up moisture into the atmosphere.

Experts said there would have been no benefit in seeding early clouds as they were already forecast to produce substantial amounts of rain. The NMC also said it was too dangerous to send the small seeding planes into thunder clouds.

‘Stark warning’ 

However, other meteorologists warned that the consequences of cloud seeding was still unknown and that it could have a longer-term effect.

Johan Jaques, senior meteorologist at German forecaster Kisters, said: “The Dubai floods act as a stark warning of the unintended consequences we can unleash when we use such technology to alter the weather.

“Additionally, we have little control over the aftermath of cloud seeding – where exactly is it going to be raining effectively?

“Anytime we interfere with natural precipitation patterns, we set off a chain of events that we have little control over. While there is a lot we know, there is still a lot we don’t and there are still plenty of gaps in our understanding of these complex weather systems.”

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Ukraine warns of WW3 ahead of long-stalled Congress aid vote - BBC

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Ukraine's prime minister has told the BBC there will be a "Third World War" if Ukraine loses its conflict with Russia, as he urged the US Congress to pass a long-stalled foreign aid bill.

Denys Shmyhal expressed "careful optimism" that US lawmakers would pass the hotly contested measure, which has $61bn (£49bn) earmarked for Kyiv.

The House of Representatives is set to vote on the package this Saturday.

The proposal includes funding for Israel as well as the Indo-Pacific.

Speaking to the BBC in Washington DC on Wednesday, Prime Minister Shmyhal said of the US security assistance: "We need this money yesterday, not tomorrow, not today."

"If we will not protect... Ukraine will fall," he added. "So the global, the global system of security will be destroyed... and all the world will need to find... a new system of security.

"Or, there will be many conflicts, many such kinds of wars, and in the end of the day, it could lead to the Third World War."

This is not the first time Ukraine has issued such an alarming warning about the consequences of its potential defeat.

Last year, President Volodymyr Zelensky said that if Russia won the conflict, it could next invade Poland, triggering World War Three.

But Kremlin officials have ridiculed such claims as Western scaremongering. Last month President Vladimir Putin dismissed suggestions that Russia might one day attack Eastern Europe as "complete nonsense".

Russia has never attacked a country within Nato, which includes Poland. Nato's collective defence pact means that an attack on one member constitutes an attack on all.

In Wednesday's interview, Prime Minister Shmyhal was asked about a recent claim by Republican House Foreign Affairs Chairman Michael McCaul that members of his own party were being "infected" by Russian propaganda.

Mr Shmyhal said: "We should understand that disinformation and propaganda is influencing here in the United States on many people, in European Union on many people, such as in Ukraine."

Opposition from the right wing of the Republican party has blocked potential assistance to Ukraine for months.

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Some of those lawmakers have objected to sending tens of billions of dollars in aid overseas, without first passing funds for US-Mexico border security.

These conservatives have also dismissed as smears any suggestion that they could be Kremlin dupes.

President Joe Biden said in a statement on Wednesday he would sign the package into law immediately once passed by Congress "to send a message to the world: We stand with our friends".

Ukraine is critically dependent on weapon supplies from the US and the West to keep fighting Russia, which has superior numbers and an abundance of artillery ammunition.

Months of congressional impasse have already had profound effects on the battlefield.

Ukraine has found itself outmanned and outgunned and forced into retreat because of ammunition rationing and falling morale.

In February, it retreated from Avdiivka, a town near occupied Donetsk that it had held since the conflict began in 2014.

Oleksandr Tarnavskyi, a general overseeing the withdrawal, cited a 10-to-one artillery ammunition advantage for his enemies and said pulling back after months of fighting was "the only correct solution".

President Zelensky blamed an "artificial deficit of weapons" as he made urgent appeals for more military aid to avoid a "catastrophic" situation.

APRIL 16: Soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from the unit of the mobile air defense group shoot down enemy drones using the ZU-23-2 Soviet 23-mm twin anti-aircraft gun on April 16, 2024 in an undisclosed location in Ukraine. (Photo by Kostiantyn Liberov/Libkos/Getty Images)
Getty Images

President Biden has cited "dwindling supplies as a result of congressional inaction" as a reason for the retreat.

Avdiivka's loss was the heaviest for Ukraine since its troops pulled out of Bakhmut in May 2023.

Both came after months of attritional warfare in which Russian forces levelled buildings with massed artillery and poured waves of troops into the frontline.

General Sir Richard Barrons, a former commander of the UK's Joint Forces Command, recently stated he feared that Ukraine could face defeat this year unless it was given the weapons and ammunition it needed to secure its lines.

"We are seeing Russia batter away at the front line, employing a five-to-one advantage in artillery, ammunition, and a surplus of people," he said.

"Ukraine may come to feel it can't win. And when it gets to that point, why will people want to fight and die?"

Both sides have suffered heavy losses in the battles but mounting casualties have left Ukraine, unlike Russia, with a shortage of manpower.

The government earlier this month lowered the age of conscription from 27 to 25 in an effort to raise hundreds of thousands of new recruits.

President Zelensky has said 31,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed since 2022. US officials, however, believe at least 70,000 have died and many more are injured.

A BBC investigation calculates that at least 50,000 Russian troops have been killed. Tens of thousands are believed to have been injured.

Russia has transformed its industrial base into a wartime economy - spending 40% of its national budget on armaments while striking deals with Iran and North Korea for ammunition, missiles and drones.

Map showing Chernihiv

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2024-04-18 02:13:03Z
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Iran, Israel and the potential for miscalculation - Al Jazeera English

The Middle East has been waiting with bated breath for Israel’s response to Iran’s attack last weekend as the spectre of regional conflict seems closer than ever.

That spectre has waxed and waned since the war on Gaza began in October with the fear that it would spiral into a regional war, dragging in Iran and its allies as well as Western countries such as the United States.

In the six months that have followed, there has been violence in the wider Middle East with tit-for-tat attacks between Israel and Iran-backed forces, primarily the Lebanese group Hezbollah.

These attacks have followed a regular pattern with each violent incident marking a slow climb up a rung of the escalation ladder.

Missiles and drones are fired deeper and deeper into Lebanon and Israel, but each side takes a degree of care to increase those distances incrementally and choose targets carefully.

Israel has been more adventurous, often being the side to widen the bounds of the “red lines”, perhaps to make Hezbollah attack in a way that gives Israel a pretext for a more full-throated bombardment of Lebanon.

So far, despite the killing of several Hezbollah senior commanders, the group has held back from using its long-range missiles.

But when Iran saw one of its generals killed in what is widely believed to have been an Israeli attack on Iran’s embassy complex in Damascus, itself an unprecedented military strike on a diplomatic mission, Tehran raised the stakes with a direct attack on Israel.

Iran’s attack has no doubt upped the ante, being the first attack by a foreign state on Israel since 1991. But the Iranians have been careful to emphasise that their attack was “limited”, the majority of the projectiles were drones that took hours to travel from Iran and all were shot down.

Iranian officials have also repeatedly made clear that regional states were warned 72 hours before the attack – not the actions of a state planning to cause any severe material damage.

Risk of war

What comes next? There is a high chance that Israel will respond militarily in some capacity. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has long projected himself as a security hawk and the man to keep Iran in its place, is unlikely to allow a direct attack from Iran go without a response.

Israel, especially right-wingers like Netanyahu, prides itself on the perception that it is the primary military power in the Middle East, and deterrence is vital to maintaining that image, particularly after the damage Hamas did during its October 7 attacks on Israel.

Iran's Ambassador to the United Nations Amir Saeid Iravani
Iran’s UN Ambassador Amir Saeid Iravani told the Security Council that his country had responded within the limits of international law. At the UN in New York City, US, April 14, 2024 [Eduardo Munoz/Reuters]

And yet, while the United States and other allies were initially firm in backing Israel in its war on Gaza, they are desperately trying to persuade Netanyahu to not respond to Iran and risk launching a war that many, particularly Washington, would feel obligated to participate in.

“Take the win,” US President Joe Biden reportedly told Netanyahu, eager to avoid what would be yet another damaging US war in the Middle East in an election year when his popularity is already battered by his backing for Israel as its forces have killed nearly 34,000 Palestinians in Gaza.

The Biden administration likely knows that Israel will attack – United Kingdom Foreign Secretary David Cameron has already admitted as much – but it will be putting pressure on Netanyahu to keep its retaliation limited and then cross its fingers that Iran does not respond and everyone goes back to the cold proxy war that Israel and Iran have participated in for years.

It sounds as if everyone – barring, perhaps, some of the more messianic figures in the Israeli government – wants to avoid an all-out war that would be devastating for all involved and the wider region.

But that does not mean that each side doesn’t have its own desired outcomes, all of which could potentially lead to the conflict that they’re all apparently eager to avoid.

Israel wants to re-establish its deterrence and wants to have the last word.

Iran does not want to be seen as weak or fail to respond to escalating Israeli attacks.

The potential for miscalculation

Even if each side wants only that and not a full-fledged conflict, miscalculations happen, and best-laid plans can often go awry.

It may be a cliche to point to World War I, but the way an assassination in Sarajevo sparked a chain of events that dragged countries into war, sometimes against their better judgements, and killed millions of people is a lesson from history that should not be forgotten.

But war is not inevitable, and countries can come back from the brink. A previous cold war that threatened to turn hot is a useful example. The Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962 saw the US and the former Soviet Union get dangerously close to what could have been a disastrous nuclear war.

A resolution was eventually reached, averting the danger, even as the two countries remained foes for decades afterwards.

That could happen today, too. But any resolution to avert the current crisis cannot simply be between Iran and Israel. It has to go to the root of why the region finds itself on the brink of war today: Israel’s devastating war on Gaza.

For as long as the conflict goes on and for as long as Israel continues its killing of civilians, there will always be potential triggers that could drag the whole region into a debilitating war.

Beyond that, the inability of world powers to solve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the most intractable of the region’s problems, will continue to be a source of instability. For as long as it remains unresolved and the illegal occupation of Palestinian territory continues, the potential for the region to descend into war will remain, waiting for whatever the latest spark will be.

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2024-04-18 07:31:17Z
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