Donald Trump’s path to victory runs through Pennsylvania
Harry Dempsey
Some pundits have quietly written off Donald Trump’s hopes of recapturing the White House after his Democratic rival Joe Biden opened a large lead in the opinion polls, writes Demetri Sevastopulo, the FT’s Washington bureau chief.
But Mr Trump still has a path to victory because Mr Biden’s polling leads are smaller in swing states such as Pennsylvania, where the Democrat is up by 1.2 per cent, narrowed down from a 5.7 per cent lead last week.
Most but not all of the paths to another victory for Mr Trump run through Pennsylvania, a state where the incumbent president has campaigned heavily in recent months.
Mr Biden has also made far more visits to Pennsylvania than any other swing state, underscoring the importance of its 20 electoral college votes.
Read more on the vital swing state of Pennsylvania here
What to watch for tonight
Matthew Rocco
Americans are bracing themselves for what could be a long night – and possibly days or weeks – before learning who won the presidential election.
A surge in early and mail-in voting during the pandemic has added new complications to the vote-counting process, as many states are not accustomed to handling large numbers of postal votes. Some states got a head start in counting votes, but results in other states could be delayed.
Three important swing states, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, will begin counting early votes today, making it less likely that final results or projections will arrive by the end of the night. Florida, another battleground state, has already begun tallying ballots.
For more on what to expect tonight, read this story by the FT’s Lauren Fedor and Christine Zhang.
In-person voting begins at East Coast polling stations
Harry Dempsey
We’re off in the 2020 US election, as Americans have begun casting their votes at polling stations across East Coast states, such as New York and Maine, in one of the most critical days in the country's history.
Vermont was the first to open at 5am local time, with voters braving the dark and cold to line up and have their say on whether Donald Trump or Joe Biden should occupy the White House for the next four year term.
States further west are gradually beginning to open their doors to voters, with the world’s gaze firmly fixed on the US election and in particular large battleground states that could swing the election such as Florida, Michigan and Pennsylvania.
Voters wait in line at a polling station in the dark on US Election Day in Winchester, Virginia
Voters queue at the Waterville Junior High School polling station before doors open in Maine
Voters arrive to cast their ballots at the Kentucky Exposition Center
The FT’s view on the US election
In a leader column last week, the Financial Times’ editorial board said that Mr Biden “owes much, if not all, of his poll lead to Donald Trump’s mishandling of the coronavirus pandemic”
It added: “It would be good to say that America had soured on Mr Trump after having weighed his overall record since 2017: the Ukraine pay-for-play schemes that resulted in his impeachment last year; the wrecking ball Mr Trump has taken to US alliances; his stoking of white nationalist militias; his withdrawal from the Paris accord on climate change; his corrupt misuse of the presidential pardon; and his self-harming trade war with China,” but added that most Americans still trust him more on the economy.
The column went on to say that Mr Biden’s promise of managerial competence was “revolutionary” but that, if he wins, he should not forget the frustrations that gave Mr Trump the presidency in the first place.
Read the full column here
Pinellas County: Florida’s battleground that could decide the US election
Harry Dempsey
Pinellas county in Florida, along the Gulf Coast to the west of Tampa, is a particularly accurate political bellwether: it has reliably picked the winner of each presidential election since 1980, with the exception of George W Bush in 2000, writes James Politi.
Four years ago, Donald Trump won it by a little more than 1 percentage point. With Florida exceedingly close this year, Joe Biden will probably have to show solid gains in Pinellas, rather than just narrowly flip it, to prevail in the rest of the state.
According to the latest Realclearpolitics.com polling average, Florida remains very much up for grabs, with Mr Biden leading by just 0.9 percentage points.
On the eve of the election, former president Barack Obama speaks at a rally, campaigning for Joe Biden in Miami, Florida
There have been some signs that voter dissatisfaction with the economy is combining with Mr Biden’s nationwide gains among seniors, women, and the young to give the Democrat an edge in Pinellas.
Mr Trump’s most valuable weapon on the road to clinching a second term — his economic stewardship — has been blunted by the downturn that gripped America this year, pushing the overall US jobless rate up to the highest level for any incumbent president seeking re-election since the second world war.
In Florida the political fight over the economy has been particularly raw because the state is heavily dependent on services such as leisure, tourism and hospitality, which were hit by the early lockdowns and the second peak of infections in the summer.
Investors and traders settle in for a long few days
Adam Samson, Markets News Editor
If there is one thing investors appear to be sure of, it is that the next few hours and days are going to be a long slog.
The unprecedented surge of postal voting in the US has compounded the sense of uncertainty in the lead up to one of the most hotly contested elections in American history.
The Vix index, one of the most closely watched measures of expected equity market volatility, is trading at 37, around twice its long-term average. Currency traders have stepped up their hedging activity, especially relating to China's renminbi.
Still, markets are looking sanguine as polling centres begin opening on the US East Coast. Futures tracking the S&P 500 index are up 1.3 per cent, echoing broad gains in Europe and Asia. US government debt, particularly with maturities long into the future, is under pressure, signalling a sense of calm as election day kicks off.
Investors say markets have largely priced-in a victory by Democrat Joe Biden against the incumbent Donald Trump. The spectre of a blue wave, where Democrats also take control of Congress, has pushed-up the price of stocks that would benefit from Mr Biden's plans for a vast infrastructure spending programme. This has also pressured the price of US Treasuries as investors expect it would stoke stronger growth and inflation in the future and prompt a deluge of issuance of US government debt to fund the fiscal stimulus.
But investment strategists are quick to note that Mr Biden favours higher corporate taxes. Mr Trump's tax cuts were one of his hallmark first-term achievements and were a significant boon to the earnings of US companies. In turn, public companies used some of their enlarged profits to buy back shares, which helped propel Wall Street stocks to record highs.
All of these competing dynamics mean it could get choppy. The FT's markets team will be writing dispatches on this blog and on the homepage as assets react - so stay tuned.
FT-Petersen poll: how has Donald Trump impacted the US economy?
Americans – those who haven’t cast their ballots already – are heading to the polls today, with the world watching. But how has their perception of the economy changed during the final stages of Donald Trump’s presidency? The FT-Petersen US Economic Monitor has traced voter sentiment in the lead-up to the election.
Better off? Just under a third of US voters feel that they are better off financially than they were in 2016, according to data gathered between October 8-11 and analysed by Christine Zhang and Lauren Fedor. That’s the lowest total since the poll started a year earlier.
Responses were split along party lines: more than half of Democrats said that they were worse off under President Trump, compared with just under a tenth of Republican voters.
Economy: helped or hindered? At the last count, 46 per cent of respondents said that Mr Trump’s policies have hurt the economy. 44 per cent said that his policies had helped. This marked the first time that a greater percentage of people said Mr Trump had hurt rather than helped the economy.
Prioritising healthcare US voters’ main concern is a potential global slowdown. But rising healthcare costs are a close second. The latest data showed that more than a quarter of respondents named this as their top concern – a significant step-up from the previous month.
Discover the FT-Petersen US Economic Monitor here
Surge in early voting puts the US on track for record turnout
Demetri Sevastopulo, Lauren Fedor, Kadhim Shubber and Courtney Weaver in Washington
Almost 99m Americans had already cast ballots either in person or by mail by Monday evening, equivalent to 72 per cent of the entire 2016 vote and putting the country on track for a record turnout.
The majority of early votes have been cast by Democrats, according to the US Elections Project, meaning Mr Trump must convince Republicans to turn out in big numbers on Tuesday if he is to overcome their advantage.
There will be fewer undecided voters up for grabs on election day this year owing to the surge in early voting by Americans who did not want to contract the virus at crowded polling stations.
Mr Trump has threatened legal action to block the counting of ballots in critical battlegrounds if they arrive after election day. However, those efforts suffered a blow after judges in two battleground states rejected lawsuits intended to stop the counting of ballots.
The final result could be delayed by days if not weeks as Democrats fight expected legal efforts by Republicans to prevent some mail-in votes from being counted.
Discover essential reading on the US election here
Biden ahead in latest polls
Oliver Ralph
As election day dawns in the US, Joe Biden is ahead in the polls as he has been throughout the campaign.
FT analysis of the latest polls shows that Mr Biden has solid support in 18 states which would give him 203 electoral college votes. President Trump, by contrast, has solid support in 15 states which would give him 77 votes in the electoral college.
There’s a lot to play for in between that though, and to win either of the candidates needs 270 electoral college votes.
Big battleground states such as Pennsylvania, Florida and Texas will be particularly important. The race is also close in Iowa, North Carolina and Georgia with the candidates polling within two percentage points of each other.
Live coverage of the US election starts here
Oliver Ralph
Welcome to the Financial Times’ live coverage of the US election.
As the US votes for its next president, we’ll be keeping you up to date with all the latest developments, from voter turnout to comments from the candidates, before bringing you all the results as they come in.
We’ll also have reaction from around the world as the election progresses, and the latest news from the financial markets as investors and traders digest the speculation and the results.
For a round up of all the FT’s coverage of the election, including dispatches from battleground states, profiles of the main personalities, analysis of key voter groups and commentary from the likes of Ed Luce, Janan Ganesh and Simon Schama, visit the FT’s presidential election home page
And if you’re on Twitter, it’s also worth following the FT’s main news feed @FinancialTimes
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2020-11-03 12:53:00Z
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