South Korea fires multiple missiles in response to North Korea's rocket launch, its military says - Sky News

ICBM crosses the threshold

Tom Cheshire

Asia correspondent

@chesh

This would be North Korea’s 11th missile test this month, most of which have been more or less ignored by the US and the world at large.

But an ICBM is a different beast. To understand why, you only have to think back to the last time North Korea tested one, in 2017.

Then, it felt like we were about to spiral into outright war on the Korean Peninsula, with a public slanging match between Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un.

Almost as quickly, though, we ended up with the historic summit between the two in Singapore, where a diplomatic breakthrough seemed possible, if still unlikely.

After the botched second summit in Hanoi, North Korea remained quiet. Then COVID kept everyone busy, including Kim.

But now he’s definitely making some noise. The question is why now? Some will see this as an attempt to provoke the Biden administration, or at least remind them that they are capable of sending a missile to hit the continental US, while they are distracted by the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

I’d argue otherwise. If North Korea really wanted to get the US’s attention, it would wait until a missile launch would dominate the news.

Some of North Korea’s considerations are more practical. It has invested a great deal in its nuclear weapons program, essentially sacrificing its economy for it. And it needs to make sure those expensive weapons work by testing them.

Doing so now, while the US is marshalling its diplomatic and economic heft against Russia, means North Korea will not be alone in the spotlight.

The other aspect of the timing is that there is no chance of Russia siding with the US at the United Nations Security Council, as it has done in previous tests. Nor will China do anything to help.

All that means that North Korea can conduct the test at a lesser cost than usual.

That is not to say that North Korea will not be looking and analysing the reaction carefully. South Korea has a newly elected president, Yoon Suk-yeol, who presented himself as more of a hardliner than his dovish predecessor Moon Jae-in. How he reacts will shape the next five years of his tenure.

And the US will respond too. It has apparently tolerated recent tests, even if it has increased its own military footprint in the region as a result.

An ICBM crosses the threshold though.

It’s hard to imagine Biden tweeting fire and fury at Kim. But he’ll have to come up with something. North Korea can’t be ignored forever.

Adblock test (Why?)

https://news.google.com/__i/rss/rd/articles/CBMigwFodHRwczovL25ld3Muc2t5LmNvbS9zdG9yeS9zb3V0aC1rb3JlYS1maXJlcy1tdWx0aXBsZS1taXNzaWxlcy1pbi1yZXNwb25zZS10by1ub3J0aC1rb3JlYXMtcm9ja2V0LWxhdW5jaC1pdHMtbWlsaXRhcnktc2F5cy0xMjU3Mzg3NtIBhwFodHRwczovL25ld3Muc2t5LmNvbS9zdG9yeS9hbXAvc291dGgta29yZWEtZmlyZXMtbXVsdGlwbGUtbWlzc2lsZXMtaW4tcmVzcG9uc2UtdG8tbm9ydGgta29yZWFzLXJvY2tldC1sYXVuY2gtaXRzLW1pbGl0YXJ5LXNheXMtMTI1NzM4NzY?oc=5

2022-03-24 09:33:45Z
1335882821