Cincunri Sakia: London Playbook: Brady crunch — Resignation watch

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By ELENI COUREA

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TUBE STRIKE: A Tube strike will cause “severe disruption” and the closure of several stations today, according to TfL, which is advising against travel in the capital.

Good Monday morning. This is Eleni Courea, in the Playbook hot seat for the first part of this week.

In case you missed his farewell, Friday was Alex Wickham’s last day as Playbook editor after a two-year run which saw him break a string of agenda-setting scoops as well as delivering essential analysis in your inboxes at 7 a.m. each morning. While we recruit our next editor, I’ll be writing the email a few days a week, as will the rest of our stellar team of Playbookers Esther Webber, Emilio Casalicchio and Annabelle Dickson and ace reporter Andrew McDonald. As ever you can email me with any tips (or ask for ProtonMail/Signal).

With a pair of critical by-elections looming, the prospect of both a Tory and a Labour leadership contest this summer and speculation about an early general election, it should be a pretty quiet few months. Let’s crack on.

**A message from Amazon: This week we are in Westminster to talk about sustainability in retail, logistics and technology. Amazon is co-founder of The Climate Pledge, a group of more than 300 organisations that are committed to being net-zero carbon by 2040, 10 years ahead of the Paris Agreement. Find out more here.**

DRIVING THE DAY

BRADY CRUNCH: Tory MPs flocking back to Westminster are preparing for the prospect of a crunch vote to decide Boris Johnson’s fate this week — with even the PM’s allies suggesting it is now a matter of when, not if.

Postcard from Altrincham: Among those making their way back to parliament after spending a long weekend talking to constituents at Jubilee garden parties and village fetes is Graham Brady, the chairman of the 1922 committee who at this moment in time is the only person in the world who knows whether the requisite 54 letters of no confidence have been submitted.

Breaking this morning: Less than an hour ago, ITV’s Paul Brand tweeted: “Tory rebels expect Sir Graham Brady to make a statement this morning announcing that there will be a vote of no confidence in Boris Johnson. Only Brady knows the exact details, but this is as certain as anyone has sounded that a vote is on.”

Rebel camp: Last night Playbook spoke to Tory rebel ringleaders — insomuch as there are any — who tentatively indicated they believed they’d met the threshold. “The chances that we have done it are better than 50/50,” one letter-writer said. “I think it was hit last week — but Graham was never going to say anything before the Jubilee,” according to another.

State of play: The consensus that’s taken hold is that Brady will have held off any announcement during the Jubilee weekend and so, if the letters are in, today is the first day we would know about it. Brady maintained his trademark sphinx-like silence when approached by Playbook last night.

When not if: Several reporters including the FT’s Seb Payne, the Guardian’s Jess Elgot and Bloomberg’s Kitty Donaldson detected a shift in the mood among allies of the PM who concede that regardless of whether it happens today, a confidence vote is now a matter of time. Business Minister Paul Scully admitted on Channel 4’s Andrew Neil show last night that the party “may well have a vote of confidence” over Johnson’s leadership but insisted: “If it does happen, the prime minister, I know, will face it down.”

How will things play out?: Theresa May’s experience in 2018 is instructive. Brady told BBC Breakfast back then that he phoned May on Tuesday night when the threshold was reached to “consult her on how the process should be ordered and what the timetable for that might be,” within the parameters of party rules. May was keen on a swift resolution, so the announcement was made straight away on Wednesday morning, she addressed the 1922 committee at 5 p.m. to make her case and a ballot was held between 6 p.m. and 8 p.m., with the result made public straight after.

That means: We could see a very similar sequence of events this week — suggesting that No. 10 will have some discretion over the precise day the vote is held. In his weekend read, the Sunday Times’ Tim Shipman said that Wednesday has already been penciled in by the 1922 exec.

No. 10 response: Expect to see “love bombing” of Tory waverers by No. 10, with some speculation among 2019ers that members of their intake could be offered ministerial jobs as part of the effort to keep them sweet. On the other hand, the Telegraph’s Ben Riley-Smith reports that the PM’s allies are warning there could be an early general election in their attempts to dissuade MPs from submitting letters of no confidence.

A trip back in time: Over a bowl of late-night pasta and with help from our reporter Andrew McDonald, your Playbook author has pulled together a quick run-through of what happened to previous Tory leaders who faced a confidence vote among their parliamentary party:

— Theresa May: Won her confidence vote with a majority of 83 in December 2018 and survived for a few more months before resigning following a catastrophic European Parliament election in May 2019.

— Iain Duncan Smith: Forced to resign after barely two years as Tory leader when he lost a confidence vote by 90 to 75 in October 2003.

— John Major: Triggered a leadership contest to square off against Tory Euroskeptics in June 1995; defeated his challenger John Redwood to be reelected … and went on to resoundingly lose the 1997 general election to Tony Blair.

— Margaret Thatcher: Became the only PM to be removed from office by a party leadership ballot in November 1990. Having faced down a challenge from Europhile backbencher Anthony Meyer the previous year, Thatcher was challenged again by Michael Heseltine. She won by 204 to 152 — not enough to avoid a second round under the rules at the time — and was persuaded to stand down by a Cabinet revolt.

— Ted Heath: Agreed with the 1922 committee to hold a leadership contest in February 1975 after narrowly losing the general election to Labour, and unexpectedly lost that vote to Margaret Thatcher.

Shady Brady: The Guardian’s Jess Elgot has an enjoyable profile of the man who may become the first 1922 committee chairman to oversee two votes of no confidence.

Waiting in the wings: There is speculation that Penny Mordaunt could resign as a minister as soon as today as part of an attempt oust Johnson and stand herself, according to the Times’ Matt Dathan. Meanwhile, the Mail’s Dan Martin has on-the-record quotes from Education Secretary Nadhim Zahawi, himself touted by some as a potential leadership candidate, warning that “people do not vote for divided teams” and urging his colleagues to “get behind” the PM.

Moment of truth: There are between 160 and 170 MPs on the government payroll, according to the IfG tally, a number helpfully close to the 180 MPs who need to back the PM if he is to win the confidence vote (which he is expected to do comfortably). Things will start to look very different if the very fact of a vote tips some ministers over the edge, however. “The swing votes if there is a no-confidence vote will be ministers,” one Tory rebel predicted to Playbook last night. “A lot of them will not have said anything, they’ll be scrupulously loyal in public because they take collective responsibility seriously, but depending on their seat, depending on how they rate their chances under somebody else rather than Boris, a number of them could vote against him.”

Obligatory health warning: Everyone could be wrong, the number of letters could be well under 54 and we’ll all be left scratching our heads as Brady gets on with his day job and the PM prepares to deliver a speech on housebuilding. Should that happen, then June 23 — the date of the Wakefield and Tiverton and Honiton by-elections, both of which the Tories are now expected to lose — is widely seen as the next flash point for the PM. The FT’s George Parker and Jasmine Cameron-Chileshe have a fun weekend read from Tiverton.

Meeting tonight: The One Nation group of Tory MPs — a 40-strong caucus that now has the power to make or break the PM — will hold its regular weekly catch-up at 6 p.m. tonight. No prizes for guessing what they might talk about.

Dossier of doom: A document branding Johnson the “Conservative Corbyn” that did the rounds among Tory rebels over the weekend gets a good billing in most of the papers after being leaked to reporters including PolHome’s Adam Payne and the Sun’s Jonny Riley. Branded the “dossier of doom” by the Daily Mail, its provenance is unclear and the fact that it was drawn up in the exact style of a Conservative Research Department briefing has raised eyebrows. One MP speculated it could have been “set by CCHQ as a leak” (though if that were true surely they would have bothered to throw us off the scent by changing the font).

TODAY IN WESTMINSTER

HOUSE OF COMMONS: Sits from 2.30 p.m. with Work and Pensions questions, followed by any UQs or statements … MPs will then move through the second reading of the National Security Bill, which is aimed at modernizing British espionage laws … and Labour MP Dan Carden has an adjournment debate on the hospitality industry in Liverpool.

IN OTHER NEWS: It’s “health week” for No. 10 as the government attempts to shift the dial, kicking off with an announcement from NHS England that its “one stop shops” have delivered 1 million checks since the rollout began. “This week we will be setting out the progress made tackling the COVID backlog through the additional investment being put into the NHS and crucially, new ways of working,” a senior government source told Playbook.

Cost of living latest: New polling by More in Common published today suggests public concern over the cost of living has grown despite the government’s latest package of measures — 67 percent cited it as a top issue facing the country, up 3 percentage points since April. In better news for Rishi Sunak — who facing a grilling on this at a Treasury select committee hearing this afternoon — the proportion of people who think the “right amount” is being done to deal with the problem has risen from 18 percent to 29 percent, but 59 percent still think the government’s measures are insufficient. Luke Tryl, U.K. Director for More in Common: “Whatever the drama in Westminster over the next few days, it won’t change the simple fact that for the public, their first, second and third concern is the rising cost of living.”

Baltic solidarity: Liz Truss is speaking at Policy Exchange this afternoon alongside Estonian PM Kaja Kallas. “We will keep going until Russia is defeated in Ukraine and for Ukraine to be restored as a sovereign nation,” she is expected to say. “That means more weapons and more sanctions. It is imperative that we completely cut off Russian gas.” (Kallas is facing some brewing challenges of her own back home, meanwhile, after her center-right alliance broke down on Friday over welfare and education reforms.)

Whistleblower protection: With the National Security Bill getting its second reading in the Commons today, former justice sec Robert Buckland is expected to put forward an amendment that would introduce a statutory public interest defense to protect public servants who reveal state secrets in the public good. Buckland makes his case in today’s Thunderer column in the Times.

Getting the house in order: Boris Johnson is expected to give a speech in the second half of the week announcing plans to extend the right to buy to millions of people who rent from housing associations. More details in Saturday’s Times and in the Telegraph last month.

Call Keir: Over in Labour land, Keir Starmer is doing one of his regular LBC call-ins with Nick Ferrari at 9 a.m. today.

BRITISH COUNCIL SCOOP: POLITICO’s Seb Whale has a remarkable story about discrimination and harassment claims inside the British Council in Kenya. A British Council official dismissed allegations made by staff as “pure evil” during a call with company staff, a recording of which was passed to Seb. Read more here.

Committee corridor: Chancellor Rishi Sunak is up at the Treasury committee for a set-piece showdown on his support for the cost of living crisis (1.45 p.m.) … and the leveling up committee will look at local authority efforts to collect council tax arrears with councillors and industry experts (4 p.m.).

Lords: Sits from 2.30 p.m. with questions on electric vehicles, the Church of England’s report on child poverty strategy and the government’s expected international development strategy … Followed by the second reading of the Product Security and Telecommunications Infrastructure Bill.

NURSING CRISIS: Nursing leader Pat Cullen will warn today that staffing shortages are putting hospital patients at risk, as the Royal College of Nursing’s annual conference begins in Glasgow. The nursing body has a report out to mark the conference which shows that more in eight in 10 nurses (83 percent) said the staffing levels on their last shift were not sufficient to meet the needs of patients.

NI NEWS: Former Brexit negotiator David Frost has blamed the relative “weakness” of the U.K.’s position in Brexit negotiations with the EU for shaping the Northern Ireland protocol and the issues it has caused, in the foreword to a new Policy Exchange report. The Guardian’s Jessica Elgot has more. No 10 could publish its new protocol legislation — which is expected to allow the government to override parts of the protocol — as soon as later this week.

UKRAINE UPDATE

WAR RETURNS TO KYIV: Russian missiles hit Kyiv Sunday, ending weeks of calm in the Ukrainian capital. Cruise missiles hit targets on the capital’s outskirts — Moscow claims it was aiming for a site storing armored vehicles, Kyiv claims it hit a train repair plant. The fresh attack came alongside a warning from Vladimir Putin that Russia would expand its range of targets if Ukraine received more long-range weapons from the U.S. and other Western countries, after the former agreed to send Ukraine more long-range artillery last week. Here’s the Times write-up.

Digest: ICYMI over the jubilee weekend, French President Emmanuel Macron again said the West should not “humiliate” Russian President Vladimir Putin in Ukraine so as to preserve the chance to find a diplomatic solution to the crisis … A Russian state media journalist claimed that a Russian general was killed during fighting in eastern Ukraine. The fiercest fighting continues to take place in the key city of Severodonetsk … Spain is to send tanks and anti-aircraft missiles to Ukraine, according to El País … and Ukraine’s world-cup dreams were dashed by Wales last night — here’s Mari Eccles match report for POLITICO.

NFI: Meanwhile, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov’s visit to Serbia today has been canceled, the Russian state-run Interfax press agency reported Sunday. The move came after Serbian newspaper Danas reported Bulgaria, North Macedonia and Montenegro had closed their airspace to Lavrov’s plane.

**A message from Amazon: Amazon has launched the Right Now Climate Fund, committing €20 million to restore and protect forests, wetlands, and peatlands in Europe. Find out more here.**

MEDIA ROUND

Health Secretary Sajid Javid broadcast round: Sky News (7.05 a.m.) … Times radio (7.20 a.m.) … BBC Breakfast (7.30 a.m.) … LBC (7.50 a.m.) … talkTV (9 a.m.).

Shadow Health Secretary Wes Streeting: BBC Breakfast (6.30 a.m.) … talkTV (7.45 a.m.) … Sky News (8.05 a.m.) … Times radio (8.35 a.m.).

Also on BBC Breakfast: Crossbench peer Tanni Grey-Thompson (7.10 a.m.).

Also on Kay Burley (Sky News): Former No. 10 pollster James Johnson (8.30 a.m.).

Also on Nick Ferrari at Breakfast (LBC): TFL COO Andy Lord (7.40 a.m.) … Phone-in with Labour leader Keir Starmer (9 a.m.).

Also on Times Radio breakfast: Oncologist Pat Price (7.50 a.m.) … Tory MP Michael Fabricant (8.07 a.m.) … Jill Rutter, senior fellow at the Institute for Government and former senior civil servant (8.15 a.m.).

Also on talkTV breakfast show: Tory peer Robert Hayward (8 a.m.) … Tory MP James Sunderland (8.45 a.m.) … Reclaim deputy leader Martin Daubney (9.15 a.m.).

Politics Live (BBC Two 12.15 p.m.): Tory MP Brendan Clarke-Smith … Labour MP Bell Ribeiro-Addy … The Telegraph’s Camilla Tominey … Guardian columnist Rafael Behr.

The Briefing with Gloria De Piero (GB News noon): Tory MP Nigel Mills … Labour MP Carolyn Harris … Former Home Secretary Alan Johnson.

Cross Question with Iain Dale (LBC 8 p.m.): Green peer Natalie Bennett … Tory London Assembly Member Emma Best … New Statesman’s Rachel Cunliffe … Historian David Starkey.

Reviewing the paper’s tonight: Sky News (10.30 p.m. and 11.30 p.m.): The Mirror’s Pippa Crerar and the Times’ Matt Dathan.

TODAY’S FRONT PAGES

(Click on the publication’s name to see its front page.)

Bloomberg: Johnson Braced for Tory Rebels to Force Confidence Vote in Days.

Daily Express: My heart has been with you all.

Daily Mail: My heart has been with you all.

Daily Mirror: My heart is with you all.

Daily Star: Long to rain over us.

Financial Times: IPO values plummet 90 percent in Europe and U.S. as inflation and war take toll.

i: Vote on Johnson future turning toxic for Tories.

Metro: Majical.

POLITICO UK: British Council criticized for handling of discrimination complaints.

PoliticsHome: Tory rebels warn party faces ‘substantial’ election defeat under Boris Johnson in leaked document.

The Daily Telegraph: ‘While I may not have attended every event in person, my heart has been with you all’ — The queen’s platinum jubilee.

The Guardian: Johnson allies accept vote of no confidence in PM is close.

The Independent: Climate cost of Sunak’s tax breaks for fossil fuels.

The Sun: Thank you, ma’am.

The Times: Queen’s balcony message — this is the future of our monarchy.

LONDON CALLING

NOW HIRING: Times Radio’s Matt Chorley is recruiting an executive producer. Guido Fawkes is hiring paid summer interns for three weeks at a time.

WESTMINSTER WEATHER: ☁️☁️☁️ Dry and breezy. Highs of 18C.

BIRTHDAYS: Government Whip Amanda Solloway … Wycombe MP Steve Baker … Bracknell MP James Sunderland … Labour peer and former Home Secretary David Blunkett … Lib Dem peer Jamie Palumbo … Former Supreme Court Judge Jonathan Mance.

PLAYBOOK COULDN’T HAPPEN WITHOUT: My editor Zoya Sheftalovich, reporter Andrew McDonald and producer Grace Stranger.

Cincunri Sakia

Senin, 06 Juni 2022

London Playbook: Brady crunch — Resignation watch — Tube strike - POLITICO Europe