Cincunri Sakia: Brussels Playbook: Zelenskyy’s jet diplomacy — Talking China

DRIVING THE DAY: FIGHTER JET DIPLOMACY

ZELENSKYY’S BLITZ: As G7 leaders prepare to fly to Hiroshima, Japan, later this week, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is making headway on a key matter for Kyiv’s military planners: the delivery of Western fighter jets to shore up the Ukrainian Air Force ahead of a much-touted counter-offensive.

Jets coalition: “We can’t control the sky,” Zelenskyy said during an unexpected U.K. stopover on Monday, during which he met with Prime Minister Rishi Sunak. “We want to create this jets coalition, and I’m very positive about it. We spoke about it [with Sunak] and I see that in the closest time, you will hear some, I think, very important decisions — but we will have to work a little bit more on it.”

On the radar: The West has so far stopped short of delivering its jets to Ukraine. But Sunak is planning to make the case in favor of the move at a Council of Europe summit in Iceland today, and in talks with G7 leaders this weekend, my colleagues Cristina Gallardo and Clea Caulcutt report.

Let’s talk about it: Yuriy Sak, an adviser to Ukraine’s defense minister, said Zelenskyy wants the issue of jets at the top of the agenda in Hiroshima and then again at an annual NATO summit in July — adding he’d received “assurances” from Western leaders that they would discuss the matter in coming days.

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Ukraine wants 40-50 F-16s in total, Sak said. Note: The U.K. doesn’t have F16s — but Belgium, Denmark, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Greece and Romania do.

While Kyiv waits for F16s, Ukrainians can take heart in the fact Western countries are increasingly committing to training its current and future fighter pilots. The U.K. has promised to do so, and speaking to TF1 following his own meeting with Zelenskyy, French President Emmanuel Macron said his country had “opened a door” to training pilots, along with “several other European countries.”

VDL, MICHEL ON CHINA

HAPPY TOGETHER: In a rare show of unity, the heads of the European Commission and Council appeared side by side at a press conference Monday as they prepared to fly to three international summits this week, Stuart Lau writes in to report. (As well as today’s CoE meet-up in Iceland and the G7 in Japan, there’s an EU-South Korea summit in Seoul coming up too.)

VDL talks tough on Beijing: “Of course, we are competing with China. This means we have to strengthen our own economic vibrancy,” Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen said. Doubling down on the EU’s plan to step up export control under the framework of economic security, she added: “We will protect a narrow set of advanced technologies, of which we know that they will determine the next-generation military advantage.”

A nod to the host: In von der Leyen’s words: “Japan [has for long been] a frontrunner in this area that has therefore made economic security, a central theme of their G7 presidency … While we all have our independent relationships with China, I’m confident that the G7 leaders will convene on a set of values for shared principles.”

Linking Asia with Europe: “We’ve seen attempts of economic coercion, for example, China towards Lithuania; we’ve seen similar practices vis-a-vis Japan and Australia,” von der Leyen said. “We are most vulnerable to coercion in general where dependencies built up.” She emphasized the EU’s “unwavering commitment to peace and stability” in the Taiwan Strait.

Taking a dig at Xi: When asked by a Chinese state media journalist what the EU thought about Beijing sending a special envoy to Kyiv this week, von der Leyen couldn’t help taking a dig: “I think it is very good that — finally, after 14 months — President Xi called President Zelenskyy,” she said, causing some journalists to chuckle.

All aboard the sanctioned express: Meanwhile, the FT reports that Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin will lead a delegation chock full of sanctioned oligarchs and politicians next week to attend the Russia-China Business Forum in Shanghai on May 23.

Million-yuan question: Von der Leyen confirmed reports that the EU was looking into targeting third-country companies for assisting Russia’s war, when asked about the presence of Chinese firms in a draft for the next package of EU sanctions. “Regarding third countries that buy directly in the EU and then [are] potentially delivering sanctioned goods to Russia,” she said, “we could ban these goods from going to that third country if there’s clear evidence that this is a circumvention of sanctions.”

Michel chimes in: “I feel that… the member states are more and more convergent,” Council chief Charles Michel said, pointing to three aspects: standing up for values and interests, economic security, and addressing global challenges. Which could also be read as a reversal for the EU’s partner-competitor-systemic rival policy on China.

NOW READ THIS: The last Council of Europe summit was held in Warsaw in 2005, when leaders committed to “building one Europe without dividing lines.” At that summit, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov represented Russia — which was excluded from the Council of Europe last year over its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. In an opinion piece for POLITICO, Amnesty International’s Nils Muiznieks and Rita Patricio write that unless the CoE learns from its failure to deal with Russia’s long-standing contempt for its statutory obligations, any commitments will ring hollow.

RUSSIA SANCTIONS

DON’T HOLD YOUR BREATH FOR SANCTIONS DEAL THIS WEEK: The discussions on the 11th sanctions package against Russia will continue during today’s meeting of EU envoys, but four diplomats said there’s no light at the end of the tunnel just yet.

Several countries, including heavyweight Germany, are not yet convinced about the details of the EU’s radical proposal to tackle circumvention through slapping sanctions on third countries, for example in Central Asia. Berlin would rather only list companies instead of entire countries, but not everyone believes this is the most efficient solution, report Barbara Moens and Jakob Hanke Vela.

Shipping forecast: The prospects for a major new crackdown on the so-called shadow fleet of vessels carrying Russian crude around the world are looking increasingly downcast as a storm brews over how plans to bar suspected vessels from European ports would work, my colleague Gabriel Gavin writes in to report.

The problem: “How are you going to implement it?” one diplomat from a major maritime member country asked. “Identifying which vessels are involved is also very difficult. There are instances where ships can switch off [their tracking devices]; so you can’t automatically say if they do that, they’re transporting Russian crude.”

What’s next? EU diplomats stressed a deal is unlikely before this week’s G7 summit or even before the Foreign Affairs Council next week, and a new draft text is said to be in the works.

TIME FOR AN AWKWARD CONVERSATION WITH INDIA? European Commission officials are meeting with senior Indian ministers today for their first-ever Trade and Technology Council, with EU High Representative Josep Borrell set to meet Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar. Ahead of that, Borrell warned in an FT interview: “If diesel or gasoline is entering Europe … coming from India and being produced with Russian oil, that is certainly a circumvention of sanctions and member states have to take measures.” Borrell said he would raise the issue with Jaishankar.

WHO QUITS MOSCOW: It took a year, but European countries have succeeded in their push for the World Health Organization to relocate a key office away from Moscow. Ashleigh Furlong has more.

EUROPEAN COMMISSION

GABRIEL’S CABINET ‘DISMANTLED’: The EU executive is down one commissioner after Mariya Gabriel, in charge of the research portfolio, stepped down on Monday to try to form a government in her country Bulgaria.

Hold that job ad: With her portfolio now to be overseen by Vice President Margrethe Vestager, Gabriel’s cabinet in Brussels has been effectively dismantled, my colleague Pieter Haeck writes in to report. Some staffers will return to previous posts in other departments, but for those on temporary contracts, this could be the end of the road.

EU chatter: Though she is barely out the door, the guessing game on Gabriel’s potential replacement has already begun. Attention is turning to another prominent Bulgarian from former Prime Minister Boyko Borissov’s GERB party — Eva Maydell. “Eva has always been a strong leader on digital topics,” Czech lawmaker Dita Charanzová wrote to Playbook. “While I will be sorry to see Commissioner Gabriel go, I think Eva has all the qualities to fill her shoes in Brussels.”

Bottom line: It may be a few beats before anyone fills those shoes. In order to name a replacement, Bulgaria needs a government. Gabriel will be trying to form one — and picking her own successor in Brussels is unlikely to be a top priority in coming weeks.

Back in Bulgaria, Gabriel stood behind Borissov on Monday as he dismissed allegations made against him by his former friend, the country’s prosecutor general, Ivan Geshev, Antoaneta Roussi writes in to report.

Earlier on Monday, in a scene that would not be out of place in a gangster film, Geshev held a press conference at which he tore up a resignation letter which he claimed had been forced upon him, alongside a threat to publish video material if he failed to comply. “There was a reference that I was alone on a cliff and up there the wind was strong,” Geshev said, adding: “I’m not afraid.”

At a theater near you: This comes about two weeks after Geshev escaped an alleged assassination attempt that opposition politicians claim was likely staged, given a lack of evidence it occured. Geshev and Borissov — once allies — are now at odds, with Geshev promising to unveil a scandal about the ex-PM. Get your popcorn out.

TURKEY’S KINGMAKER

NATIONALIST HOLDS CARDS IN TURKEY RUNOFF: Turkey’s long-ruling president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, heads to a runoff vote on May 28 against rival Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, who came up short in the first round ballot over the weekend despite pre-election polls showing him in the lead.

But all isn’t said and done. As my colleagues Elçin Poyrazlar and Christian Oliver report from Istanbul, there is still hope in Kılıçdaroğlu’s camp that he could gain enough votes between rounds from supporters of Sinan Oğan, a nationalist who polled around 5 percent in the first round, to put him over the top on May 28.

Glimmer: That would suppose almost the entirety of Oğan’s backers switch to Kılıçdaroğlu — a long shot.

NOW READ THIS: Erdoğan’s government ordered Twitter to block the accounts of roughly a dozen opposition figures — prompting an outcry against owner Elon Musk for complying with the order. Read chief tech correspondent Mark Scott on how the Turkish leader’s AKP party has tightened its grip on social media — including by copying Europe’s rules against hate speech and misinformation and wielding them against opponents.

IN OTHER NEWS

WILL AI KILL THE EU’S TRANSLATORS? Automation is creeping into the Brussels bubble — and translators are among its first victims, report my colleagues Gregorio Sorgi and Federica Di Sario in this deep dive on how AI changed the jobs of the EU’s over 2,000 translators.

Shrinkage: High-tech machines that can run through Eurocratic jargon at record speed have replaced hundreds of linguists in the EU bubble. The Commission’s dedicated unit shrunk by 20 percent over the last decade.

But not all is gloomy: Translators insist the human element remains essential. “Machine translation helps translators but cannot replace them. There is always a need for human expert validation,” said Spyridon Pilos, an ex-Commission official who oversaw the introduction of translation engines in 2013.

JOUROVÁ WARNS AGAINST CZECH NEWSPAPER TAX: European Commission Vice President Věra Jourová has spoken out against a Czech government proposal that would increase VAT on newspapers to 21 percent from 10 percent. That spike “could be devastating for regional and local newspapers,” many of which are already “struggling to survive,” Jourová, who hails from the Czech Republic herself, told Playbook’s Ketrin Jochecová.

Background: The Czech government introduced an austerity package last week aiming to tackle a budget deficit. Under the proposals, magazines would be subject to a 12 percent tax rate, and books would be exempted completely. The proposal “looks like an attempt to kill newspaper publishing,” said the Czech Publishers’ Association Chairwoman Libuše Šmuclerová.

Bad news for stag dos: If the proposal is adopted, food and housing will benefit from lower VAT, but alcohol, tobacco, gambling — and newspapers and bicycles — will face a significant increase in tax. Plus, draught beer will be slapped with a big tax hike — which could hit the country’s reputation as the land of cheap beer.

INTRA-EU CALLS: Internal Market Commissioner Thierry Breton is “committed to make sure that intra-EU communications are affordable for all European citizens,” according to a letter he sent to MEPs, which Ketrin has seen. Lawmakers have urged him to extend the cap on the cost of calls and texts between EU countries, which is set to expire on May 14, 2024.

Disclaimer: We’re not talking about roaming — which is used when you are calling from abroad. “I am happy that Commissioner Breton understands that it would be a mistake to let the limits on Intra-EU calls and SMSs expire,” said Parliament Vice President Dita Charanzová.

Public impact: A new Eurobarometer survey published Monday shows that 31 percent of Europeans have made more or longer mobile calls to another EU country since the introduction of the price cap in May 2019. According to the data, Maltese residents benefited most from the price cap (81 percent), followed by Irish (45 percent), Croatians (43 percent) and Poles (40 percent).

NEW JOB FOR ITALY’S DI MAIO: The Council has appointed Luigi Di Maio, former Italian foreign minister, as the EU special representative for the Gulf region, taking up his duties June 1. Announcement here.

ASSAD BACK IN THE ROOM: The United Arab Emirates invited Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to attend this year’s United Nations climate summit, Zia Weise reports.

AGENDA

— Education, Youth, Culture and Sport Council 9:30 a.m. Morning session on culture. Arrivals at 8 a.m.; doorstep by Swedish Minister for Culture Parisa Liljestrand at 8:45 a.m.; press conference at 1:45 p.m. Watch. Afternoon session on education. Doorstep by Swedish Minister for Schools Lotta Edholm; press conference at 6:15 p.m. Full agenda. Watch.

— Economic and Financial Affairs Council 9:30 a.m. Arrivals at 7:30 a.m.; press conference at 1:30 p.m. (times approximate). Watch.

— Summit of the heads of state and government of the Council of Europe in Reykjavík, Iceland kicks off at 7:45 p.m. Watch.

— European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen travels to Iceland, meets Prime Minister Katrín Jakobsdóttir; joint press conference at 4:45 p.m. Watch.

— High-level meeting with Western Balkans on the implementation of the Specific Actions for South East Europe of the EU Action Plan on Firearms Trafficking 2020-2025 with EU High Representative Josep Borrell and Commissioner Ylva Johansson. 9 a.m. Watch.

— Signing ceremony for Frontex Status Agreement with Montenegro with Ylva Johansson and Minister of the Interior for Montenegro Filip Adžić at 3:30 p.m. Watch.

— European Parliament President Roberta Metsola travels to Malta, gives address at the InterAction Council Conference at 10:30 a.m.

— EU-India Trade & Technology Council at 4 p.m. Press point by Commission Executive Vice Presidents Margrethe Vestager and Valdis Dombrovskis with Indian ministers at 7 p.m. Watch.

— Commissioner Thierry Breton to deliver keynote speech on chips at IMEC Tech Forum 9:05 a.m.

— Local and regional leaders from across the EU meet in Gdańsk for summit convened by the EPP group in the European Committee of the Regions. Program. Watch.

— France hosts summit of pro-nuclear energy alliance.

BRUSSELS CORNER

TRANSPORT PSA: Brussels’ metro line 5 and tram 82 will be disrupted from May 18 to May 21. Buses will replace trains between Erasme and Jacques Brel stations, and 82 trams between Gare de l’Ouest and Gare de Berchem. More info here.

DELHAIZE SUPERMARKETS VANDALIZED: Delhaize supermarkets around Belgium have been vandalized over the past few days, with “graffiti with aggressive slogans, disabled doors, puncture of tires,” according to Delhaize spokesperson Roel Dekelver. A police complaint has been filed, but no culprits have been identified yet.

Why the hate: Delhaize announced in March it would franchise its 128 independent stores, triggering country-wide protests and resulting in temporary closures of several stores. Trade unions are unhappy with the management’s decision, which could see thousands of employees lose their jobs. A court recently banned protesters from picketing in front of stores.

National strike: The SETCa union is planning a nationwide rally on May 22 in support of the workers. “Today it’s Delhaize, whose turn is it tomorrow?” said the trade union organization of employees, technicians and managers in Belgium.

On a practical note: Expect public transport issues on May 22. Details to come; STIB will be providing information in real time.

ORANGE BAGS IN FORCE: As of this Monday, Brussels residents must separate food scraps from general waste. While there’s no punishment yet for those who don’t use the orange bags properly, as of September, expect fines between €50 and €100. You can check out the new waste collection calendar here.

BIRTHDAYS: MEPs Thomas Waitz, Barry Andrews and Petras Auštrevičius; Former MEP Mylène Troszczynski; Former U.S. Ambassador to the EU Tony Gardner; European Commission’s Damien Levie; ICANN’s Chris Mondini; Elizabeth Livengood from Siemens Healthineers; U.S. Mission to the EU’s Nina Brkuljan; Polish President Andrzej Duda; Journalist Andreas Lesch.

THANKS TO: Playbook reporter Ketrin Jochecová and our producer Grace Stranger.

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Cincunri Sakia

Selasa, 16 Mei 2023

Brussels Playbook: Zelenskyy’s jet diplomacy — Talking China — Translators vs. AI - POLITICO Europe