Rabu, 08 Desember 2021

Olaf Scholz elected German chancellor by Bundestag - Financial Times

Germany’s Bundestag has elected Olaf Scholz of the left-of-centre Social Democrats as chancellor, bringing the curtain down on 16 years of conservative rule under Angela Merkel.

Scholz will lead an unprecedented three-way coalition between the SPD, Greens and liberals that has pledged to modernise Germany, tackle climate change and pursue a slate of progressive social policies.

But his immediate task will be to try to stem a fourth wave of Covid-19 that is putting unprecedented strain on Germany’s hospitals and to raise the country’s stubbornly low vaccination rate.

MPs voted 395-303 with 6 abstentions to elect Scholz. Though a comfortable majority, the result fell 21 votes short of the 416 seats that the three parties in his coalition command in the Bundestag.

Scholz, who has no religious affiliation, omitted the optional phrase “so help me God” from his oath of office, just like the last SPD chancellor, Gerhard Schröder who governed from 1998-2005. The Green co-leaders Robert Habeck and Annalena Baerbock, who will serve as economy minister and foreign minister respectively, did the same.

A taciturn former labour lawyer, Scholz is only the fourth SPD chancellor since the second world war. He led the party to victory in September’s election by portraying himself as a safe pair of hands in uncertain times and therefore Merkel’s natural successor.

Scholz will undertake his first foreign trip on Friday — to Paris, for talks with Emmanuel Macron, and to Brussels, where he will meet EU and Nato leaders.

Merkel, who watched Scholz’s election from the Bundestag’s public gallery and who is retiring from politics, was given a standing ovation by MPs.

The new government has agreed an ambitious plan to fight climate change by vastly expanding Germany’s renewables capacity, speeding up its exit from coal power and putting 15m electric cars on the roads by 2030. It also plans to raise the minimum wage and build 400,000 flats a year, a quarter of them subsidised by the state.

In addition, the coalition parties want to legalise cannabis and liberalise immigration rules to ease the path to German citizenship.

Scholz’s elevation to the chancellery caps a long career in politics. He was federal labour minister during the global financial crisis and mayor of Hamburg, one of Germany’s largest cities, from 2011-18.

But he has often been mistrusted by leftwingers in his own party who never forgave his support of Schröder’s reforms to the German labour market and welfare system in the early 2000s.

He lost the contest for the leadership of the SPD in 2019, but a year later, was chosen as the party‘s candidate for chancellor and oversaw a remarkable resurgence in its poll ratings. That culminated in a narrow victory over Merkel’s CDU/CSU in the September election.

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2021-12-08 16:59:50Z
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Germany's Olaf Scholz takes over from Merkel as chancellor - BBC News

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz says goodbye to former German Chancellor Angela Merkel after the official handing over ceremony of the Chancellery in Berlin, Germany, 08 December 2021
EPA

Olaf Scholz has been been sworn in as Germany's new chancellor, formally taking power after Angela Merkel's historic 16 years as leader.

He promised he would do all he could to work towards a new start for Germany.

As she left the chancellery in Berlin, ending a 31-year political career, Mrs Merkel told her former vice-chancellor to approach the task "with joy".

His centre-left Social Democrats will govern alongside the Greens and the business-friendly Free Democrats.

Mr Scholz, a soft-spoken 63-year-old, steered the Social Democrats to election victory in late September, positioning himself as the continuity candidate because he played a key role in the Merkel government as vice-chancellor.

The German parliament, the Bundestag, backed him as chancellor by 395 votes to 303, and he was then formally appointed as the ninth federal chancellor by President Frank-Walter Steinmeier.

After the vote in parliament, he was asked by Bundestag President Bärbel Bas whether he accepted the appointment and said "yes". He later took the oath of office but - unlike his predecessor - left out the religious reference "so help me God".

Since the election, Mr Scholz's party has worked with the Greens and the Free Democrats on a coalition deal, which was finally signed on Tuesday. All 16 ministers took the oath of office on Wednesday, becoming Germany's first cabinet to include as many women as men.

German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier (C) and newly appointed Ministers pose for the media during the appointment of the Federal Ministers at the Bellevue Palace in Berlin, Germany, 08 December 2021
EPA

The new government has ambitious plans to fight climate change by phasing out coal early and focusing on renewable energy, but their initial priority will be tackling the coronavirus pandemic.

Health authorities have recorded another 69,601 cases in the past 24 hours and a further 527 deaths - the highest number since last winter.

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A known face but not Merkel No.2

Analysis box by Katya Adler, Europe editor

"I said 'yes'," tweeted Olaf Scholz drily, moments after the Bundestag elected him chancellor.

This is the moment the career politician has long been waiting for. After 16 years of Angela Merkel, it's a case of out with the old and in with the new-ish.

The BBC is not responsible for the content of external sites.View original tweet on Twitter
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Mr Scholz is already a known and trusted face in Berlin and Brussels. He marketed himself to voters as sort of Merkel Mark Two, despite hailing from a different political party.

But it's not all about continuity, and friends and trade partners of this rich and powerful nation will be watching closely.

Mr Scholz's coalition government is a never-before-seen marriage of convenience. What unites them, they claim, is a determination to modernise Germany, while preserving the country's treasured stability.

Immediate challenges for them are:

  • Covid - Germany is in the midst of a pernicious fourth wave and considering mandatory vaccination
  • The threat of a Russian invasion of Ukraine
  • Angela Merkel was accused of putting trade before politics. Team Scholz is expected to be somewhat tougher on Moscow and Beijing despite the potential economic hit to German business.

Relations with Washington may improve as a result, though, and that is a declared priority of Olaf Scholz's fledgling coalition.

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Mr Scholz's first foreign trip as chancellor will be to Paris and Brussels on Friday. He and Greens joint leader Annalena Baerbock, who becomes foreign minister, will have to respond to fears surrounding Russia's military build-up near the border with Ukraine.

Although Russia has denied plans to invade its neighbour, Angela Merkel agreed with US President Joe Biden and the leaders of the UK, France and Italy late on Tuesday that they would adopt a joint strategy to respond by imposing "significant and severe harm on the Russian economy".

One obvious economic measure would be to threaten Russia's Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline to Germany, which has been completed but is still awaiting approval from the German energy regulator.

US officials say they have reached an understanding with Germany that the pipeline would be shut down, which would be a significant intervention.

In a message of congratulations to Mr Scholz, Russian President Vladimir Putin said he looked forward to constructive dialogue, and hoped that Germany continued to recognise "there's no alternative to dialogue".

Distribution of seats - provisional results
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Leaving the chancellery on Wednesday afternoon, Mrs Merkel was applauded by staff as she told her successor to take over and work for the good of Germany. In turn, he spoke of the crises that had brought them together and of the "deeply trusting collaboration" they had developed.

First elected in December 1990, Angela Merkel was immediately given a ministerial job by then Chancellor Helmut Kohl.

But she then helped oust him and became Christian Democrat leader in 2000, before becoming chancellor herself in November 2005.

She will still have an office close to the Bundestag, in a flat that was once used by Margot Honecker, once dubbed the most powerful woman in communist East Germany.

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2021-12-08 15:31:05Z
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Winter Olympics 2022: Australia joins US in diplomatic boycott of Beijing Games - Sky News

Australia's prime minister has said his country will join the US in a diplomatic boycott of the Beijing Winter Olympics due to human rights concerns.

"I'm doing it because it's in Australia's national interest. It's the right thing to do," said Scott Morrison.

Mr Morrison said the decision should not be a surprise as relations between the countries had soured in recent years.

As well as human rights worries, he said China had criticised Australian defence efforts "particularly in relation, most recently, to our decision to acquire nuclear-powered submarines".

The Games - set in and around Beijing - start on 4 February
Image: The Games - set in and around Beijing - start on 4 February

The country's athletes will still be able to compete in February's games.

Australia's prime minister said he was open to efforts to repairing the relationship with China.

"There's been no obstacle to that occurring on our side, but the Chinese government has consistently not accepted those opportunities for us to meet," Mr Morrison said.

More on Australia

The move comes a few days after the US decided to hold back its own diplomats and officials from the Olympics due to "egregious human rights abuses and atrocities in Xinjiang".

China's foreign ministry warned of "firm countermeasures" and said the US was "grandstanding".

China has been accused of abuses against Xinjiang's Muslim Uyghur population, with some alleging torture and deaths inside re-education centres. It denies the claims.

The case of tennis player Peng Shuai, who made sexual assault claims against a former senior Chinese official, has brought added focus to the country's human rights.

Olympic rings lead to venues in Zhangjiakou, Hebei province
Image: Olympic rings lead to venues in Zhangjiakou, Hebei province

With about two months before the Olympics begin, more countries could join the boycott.

The Times reported the UK could be a part of the protest, while a Canadian foreign affairs spokesperson has said the country is discussing the matter "with our closest partners".

The Winter Olympics will be held in and around Beijing and locations in neighbouring Hebei province from 4 to 20 February.

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2021-12-08 07:52:30Z
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Germany's Olaf Scholz takes over from Merkel as chancellor - BBC News

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz (C) poses with Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania's state premier and State leader of the German Social Democratic SPD party Manuela Schwesig (L), Rhineland-Palatinate's State Premier and member of Germany's Social Democratic SPD party Malu Dreyer (2nd R) and Lower Saxony's State Premier and State leader of the German Social Democratic SPD party Stephan Weil (R) after he was elected as the country's next Chancellor at the Bundestag, Germany's parliament, on December 8, 2021 in Berlin, Germany
Getty Images

Olaf Scholz has been confirmed as Germany's new chancellor, leading a three-party government that takes over from Angela Merkel after 16 years in office.

He was voted in by the German parliament, where his coalition has a substantial majority.

His centre left Social Democrats will govern alongside the Greens and the business-friendly Free Democrats.

The handover of power marks an end to Mrs Merkel's 31-year political career.

Mr Scholz, a soft-spoken 63-year-old, steered the Social Democrats to election victory in late September, positioning himself as continuity candidate because he played a key role in the Merkel government as vice-chancellor.

He was given a standing ovation after the German parliament, the Bundestag, backed him by 395 votes to 303. He will now go to see President Frank-Walter Steinmeier before returning at midday (11:00 GMT) to be sworn in.

Since the election, his party has worked with the Greens and the Free Democrats on a coalition deal, which was finally signed on Tuesday. He is set to take over from Mrs Merkel at 15:00.

The new government has ambitious plans to fight climate change by phasing out coal early and focusing on renewable energy, but their initial priority will be on tackling the coronavirus pandemic. Health authorities have recorded another 69,601 cases in the past 24 hours and a further 527 deaths - the highest number since last winter.

He and Greens leader Annalena Baerbock, who becomes foreign minister, will also have to respond to fears surrounding Russia's military build-up near the border with Ukraine.

Although Russia has denied plans to invade its neighbour, Angela Merkel agreed with President Joe Biden and the leaders of the UK, France and Italy late on Tuesday that they would adopt a joint strategy to respond by imposing "significant and severe harm on the Russian economy".

One obvious economic measure would be to threaten Russia's Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline to Germany, which has been completed but is still awaiting approval from the German energy regulator. US officials say they have reached an understanding with Germany that the pipeline would be shut down, which would be a significant intervention.

Distribution of seats - provisional results
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First elected in December 1990, Angela Merkel was immediately given a ministerial job by then Chancellor Helmut Kohl.

But she then helped oust him and became Christian Democrat leader in 2000, before becoming chancellor herself in November 2005.

She will still have an office close to the Bundestag, in a flat that was once used by Margot Honecker, once dubbed the most powerful woman in communist East Germany.

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2021-12-08 09:34:51Z
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2022 Beijing Winter Olympics: Australia joins US diplomatic boycott - BBC News

People protest next to 'boycott Beijing 2022' signs
Reuters

Australia has said it will join the US in a diplomatic boycott of the 2022 Winter Olympics in China.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison said the decision was in response to "human rights abuses" in China's Xinjiang province and "many other issues that Australia has consistently raised".

Athletes would still attend, he added.

China has condemned the US announcement and threatened to retaliate, without giving further details.

On Monday, the US said it would not send diplomats to the Games in Beijing over concerns about China's human rights record.

Mr Morrison said it was "no surprise" that Australia had joined the boycott, given relations with China had deteriorated in recent years.

"I'm doing it because it's in Australia's national interest," he said on Wednesday. "It's the right thing to do."

He accused China of rejecting opportunities to improve relations, insisting Australia remained open to bilateral talks.

The Chinese embassy in Australia responded by saying: "Mountains cannot stop the river from flowing into the sea. Australia's success at the Beijing Winter Olympics depends on the performance of Australian athletes, not on the attendance of Australian officials, and the political posturing by some Australian politicians."

It added that the blame for the current state of China-Australia relations "lies squarely on the Australian side".

Meanwhile at a media briefing on Tuesday, Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian accused the US of violating "political neutrality in sport" and said the proposed boycott was "based on lies and rumours".

Tensions are high between the two countries. The US has accused China of genocide in its repression of the predominantly Muslim Uyghur minority in the western region of Xinjiang - an allegation China has strongly denied.

Relations are also strained over China's suppression of political freedoms in Hong Kong, and because of concerns for the Chinese tennis player Peng Shuai, who was not seen for weeks after she accused a top government official of assault.

Canberra has increasingly come to view China as a security threat amid allegations that Beijing has interfered in Australian politics and society.

It has also raised concerns over two Australian citizens who remain imprisoned in China.

Pro-democracy writer Yang Hengjun has denied charges of espionage and allegedly faced torture since his arrest in January 2019. Journalist Cheng Lei has been held without charge since August last year.

Other countries - including Canada and Japan - are also said to be considering diplomatic boycotts of the Games. New Zealand has confirmed it will not send officials due to Covid concerns.

The Australian Olympic Committee said it supported its government's move but was keen to ensure safety for its approximately 40 athletes.

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More on the Australia-China row:

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2021-12-08 07:19:33Z
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Biden warns Putin of 'strong measures' amid Ukraine invasion fears - BBC News

Joe Biden speaks to Vladimir Putin via video link
Reuters

The US says it is preparing "strong economic and other measures" over fears of a Russian invasion of Ukraine, after Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin spoke.

In a video call, President Biden voiced worries over Russian troop build-ups near the border with Ukraine and called for a de-escalation of tensions.

Russia says it will not attack.

President Putin accused Ukraine of provocation, and sought guarantees against eastward Nato expansion and deployment of weapons close to Russia.

More than 90,000 Russian troops are believed to be massed near Ukraine's borders. The movement has strained already tense relations between Russia and the US.

After Tuesday's call, US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said the Biden administration was preparing specific robust responses in the weeks ahead if they were required.

The measures included economic sanctions and other actions such as additional troop deployments to Nato allies in the region and defence equipment for Ukraine.

Mr Sullivan refused to be drawn on what the economic measures might be. But he said Nord Stream 2, a new gas pipeline from Russia to Germany, which is not yet in operation, provided "leverage" for the US and its allies.

"If Vladimir Putin wants to see gas flow through that pipeline, he may not want to take the risk of invading Ukraine," he told journalists. Earlier reports said US officials had reached agreement with Germany to shut down the pipeline in the event of an invasion.

Mr Biden (R) with top officials
Reuters

Other possible measures include restrictions on Russia's banks converting roubles into foreign currencies, or even disconnecting Russia from the Swift global financial payment system, reports say.

"Things we did not do in 2014 we are prepared to do now," Mr Sullivan added, referring to Western responses to Russia's annexation of Crimea.

He also said there was "a lot of give and take" in the call and "no finger-wagging" but that President Biden was "crystal clear where the United States stands on all of these issues".

Video footage of the opening moments showed friendly greetings between the US and Russian leaders, before the talks continued behind closed doors.

The call was held on a secure video link set up under previous administrations but never used before. President Putin spoke from his residence in the southern resort of Sochi and President Biden from the White House.

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What form Russia's military option could take

By Jonathan Marcus of the Strategy and Security Institute, University of Exeter

Russia's military option could take a variety of forms from a large incursion, to a significant invasion of the eastern part of Ukraine. One aim would be to bring the main fighting elements of the Ukrainian army to battle and to inflict such a defeat upon them that the Kyiv government has to rethink its position.

Invading territory amidst a hostile population has significant risks. Ukraine's armed forces have had some Western weaponry and training and are much improved since 2015. However, Russian forces have also improved over recent years. The firepower Russia is building up is impressive. For all the talk about Ukrainian sovereignty Nato cannot and will not come to Ukraine's aid.

And additional weapons supplies might simply contribute to Russia's justification for war.

Moscow's calculation of the costs of conflict may also be influenced by previous military deployments. While the West currently sees military engagements through the prism of the strategic defeats in Iraq and Afghanistan, Russia may take a very different view. Its operations in Georgia, its seizure of Crimea, its combat in eastern Ukraine - not to mention its involvement in Syria - may all be seen by President Putin as relative victories.

Of all the military contingencies, Michael Kofman, of the US Centre for Naval Analyses, still thinks that if it happens it will be big. "I think Russia is in the best position since 2014 economically, politically, and militarily to execute such an operation, which is not to say it will happen, but simply to suggest that there are the fewest constraints relative to other periods when it has conducted offensive operations."

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Russia seeks 'reliable guarantees'

Meanwhile, a Kremlin statement said President Putin had stressed that Russia should not be held responsible for tensions because Nato was making "dangerous attempts to take over Ukrainian territory and increasing its military potential" on Russia's borders.

"Therefore Russia is seriously interested in getting reliable guarantees fixed in law to rule out the eastward expansion of Nato and the location in countries neighbouring Russia of offensive weapons systems," the statement added (in Russian).

The White House said President Biden did not make any guarantees to limit Nato expansion.

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky said that, while the talks brought "no sensations", he was grateful for President Biden's "unwavering support".

Ukrainian authorities have said Moscow could be planning a military offensive at the end of January, although US officials say it is not yet clear whether President Putin has made a decision.

Presidents Biden and Putin last met in person in Switzerland in June, but made little progress other than to agree to send their ambassadors back and begin a dialogue on nuclear arms control.

In a conference call on Monday night, the White House said the leaders of the US, UK, France, Germany and Italy had formed a joint strategy "to impose significant and severe harm on the Russian economy" should Russia launch an invasion.

President Biden spoke to the four European leaders again after his talks with President Putin.

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A large part of the recent Russian military build-up is in Crimea, which Russia seized from Ukraine and then annexed in 2014.

Troops are also gathering near Ukraine's eastern regions of Donetsk and Luhansk, parts of which are under the control of Russian-backed separatists.

More than 14,000 people have lost their lives in seven years of conflict since Russian-backed forces seized large areas of Ukraine's east.

Eastern Ukraine map

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2021-12-08 04:50:34Z
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Five challenges for Olaf Scholz's new German government - Financial Times

The new German government being sworn in on Wednesday amounts to an unprecedented political experiment. The three coalition parties — Social Democrats, Greens and liberal Free Democrats — have never governed together before. And a host of urgent issues, not least a sharp escalation of the coronavirus pandemic, could subject their alliance to immediate strain. How they cope with the challenges outlined below will shape history’s verdict on their coalition.

1 — Overcoming coronavirus

Line chart showing new confirmed cases of Covid-19 in Germany. A seven-day rolling average of new cases per 100k from July to December 2021

Olaf Scholz’s cabinet takes power with Germany in the grip of a fourth Covid-19 wave that has dwarfed previous surges. Infection rates are soaring and hospitals reaching the limits of their capacity. Faced with an inoculation rate that is far lower than in countries such as Spain, Denmark and Belgium, the new chancellor has advocated mandatory vaccinations for all. But even those willing to get a jab face hurdles: lengthy queues form every day outside vaccination centres and doctors’ practices have complained of a shortage of shots. Meanwhile social tensions are growing: last week anti-lockdown protesters held a torch parade outside the home of a regional health minister, a protest widely condemned by politicians in Berlin.

2 — A sputtering economy

A line chart showing German consumer price inflation with the annual % change in consumer price index from 2008 to 2021

Scholz faces a much grimmer economic outlook than when his SPD narrowly won the election in September. Data released on Monday showed a far larger slump in factory orders than analysts had predicted. Industry has been plagued by shortages of raw materials and products such as microchips, which have led to delivery bottlenecks and production problems in the automobile industry. Meanwhile, inflation hit 6 per cent last month, its highest level since the early 1990s. Experts now believe Germany could take longer to return to pre-pandemic levels of economic growth than the eurozone overall. Business groups also fear that tough new restrictions on the unvaccinated, introduced last month, could suppress consumer activity in the run-up to Christmas.

3 — Meeting climate goals while keeping the lights on

Nowhere are the new government’s ambitions so clearly in evidence as in its plan for fighting climate change. It wants to massively ramp up renewables capacity, exit coal power by 2030 — eight years earlier than originally planned — phase out petrol and diesel cars and have 15m electric vehicles on Germany’s roads by the end of the decade. But some experts have questioned how the country will be able to keep the lights on once all its coal and nuclear power stations are closed. It will need to build thousands of new wind turbines and solar panels, extensive new electricity grids and a swath of gas-fired power stations. Indeed, talk is of a looming “electricity gap”, with industrial and residential consumers facing a potential energy shortfall and rising prices. The new government will have to figure out how to bridge this gap and achieve its green targets without endangering Germany’s export-driven economy.

4 — Foreign policy challenges

Days before Germany’s new government took office, US president Joe Biden warned US allies that Russia may be poised to invade Ukraine. Germany, along with others in Nato and the EU, now accepts this assessment and will probably sign up for hefty new sanctions should the Russians do so. But that could prove to be one of the first big tests of the coalition’s cohesion. Many in the SPD are inclined to go easy on Vladimir Putin, in contrast to the more hawkish Greens. There is likely to be a row over what to do about Nord Stream 2, the gas pipeline from Russia across the Baltic, which the Greens oppose and the SPD backs. Faultlines over how to punish Russia could end up casting a dark shadow over what should have been the new coalition’s honeymoon period.

5 — Investment versus debt

Scholz last month promised the “biggest industrial modernisation of Germany in more than 100 years”, and his coalition seems determined to invest billions in greening Germany’s economy and upgrading its infrastructure. But the FDP insisted it would also abide by the country’s strict fiscal rules — in particular its constitutional cap on new borrowing, the so-called debt brake. Squaring this circle could become one of the coalition’s biggest challenges. Its 177-page agreement offers hints of a solution: much investment will be carried out by KfW, a state development bank, Deutsche Bahn and a federal property agency that will be used to build new flats. There will also be one last borrowing binge next year while the debt brake — which was temporarily waived during the pandemic — is still suspended. But rows between the pro-investment Greens and the pro-fiscal rectitude FDP over spending priorities seem preprogrammed.

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2021-12-08 05:01:00Z
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