Danish, German and Polish officials have signalled that suspicious leaks on two Russian gas pipelines in the Baltic Sea are highly likely to be the result of sabotage, heightening concerns over the vulnerability of Europe’s energy infrastructure.
Danish prime minister Mette Frederiksen said sabotage could not be ruled out as the cause of the leaks of the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines, which have been at the centre of the energy crisis between Russia and Europe.
“It is too early to conclude yet, but it is an extraordinary situation,” she added. “There are three leaks, and therefore it is difficult to imagine that it could be accidental.”
German officials said there was concern in Berlin the sudden loss of pressure in both pipelines could be the result of a “targeted attack” on Europe’s gas infrastructure.
They said it could “not be excluded” that Russia perpetrated the attack, but stressed that it was Denmark and Sweden that were investigating the leaks and the German government was not involved.
Norway’s petroleum safety authority warned on Monday that several oil and gas companies had recently complained of unidentified drones close to their offshore facilities and urged heightened vigilance.
“We would urge all operators and vessel owners on the Norwegian Continental Shelf to show increased vigilance,” the safety authority said.
The leaks come as Russian gas supplies to Europe have dwindled as part of President Vladimir Putin’s efforts to deter Europe from supporting Ukraine in resisting the Russian invasion. The leaks will not directly affect gas flows from Russia but may unsettle the market ahead of winter.
Moscow halted supplies through Nord Stream 1 last month, intensifying Europe’s energy crisis as countries rush to secure alternative gas sources.
“We don’t know all the details of what happened, but we see clearly that it’s an act of sabotage, related to the next step of escalation of the situation in Ukraine,” Mateusz Morawiecki, Poland’s prime minister, said on Tuesday, Reuters reported.
Sweden’s maritime administration on Tuesday reported two leaks in the Russian Nord Stream 1’s pipelines close to the Danish island of Bornholm in the Baltic Sea. That report came hours after Denmark’s energy agency said there was a separate leak, also close to Bornholm, on the Nord Stream 2 pipeline — which Germany abandoned after Russia invaded Ukraine. Sweden and Denmark warned ships to avoid the area.
In June, a Russian warship twice violated Danish territorial waters near Bornholm.
Asked if sabotage was the cause of the leak, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters “no version can be excluded now”, the Russian agency Interfax reported.
“Obviously the pipe has been damaged somehow. What the cause was — before the results of the investigation appear, no version can be excluded,” he added.
Danish electricity and gas companies must now increase security at a wide range of facilities and buildings after the preparedness level was raised to “orange”, the second highest. Kristoffer Böttzauw, director of Denmark’s energy agency, said the country wanted “to ensure thorough oversight of Denmark’s critical infrastructure to strengthen security of supply”.
Sweden’s energy agency said it was not considering raising its preparedness level, but was following developments closely.
Energy analysts said it was not clear who would stand to benefit from the leaks at a time when neither line was operational. But some suspect a possible connection to the planned start-up of a new gas pipeline link between Norway — now Europe’s biggest supplier of gas — and Poland.
Frederiksen is in Poland for the opening ceremony of the pipeline, which will deliver Norwegian supplies through Denmark to Poland for the first time.
“The leak on Nord Stream 2 is very close to the new Baltic Pipe that will bring Norwegian gas to Poland for the first time . . . so there’s some heavy symbolism,” said Tom Marzec-Manser, at energy consultancy ICIS. “For EU gas imports it’s a new dawn for Norway and twilight for Russia.”
Although Nord Stream 2 was never put into operation, the pipeline had been filled with gas in anticipation of its start-up.
Ukraine has long opposed the Nord Stream pipelines, arguing they were designed to weaken its position as one of the main conduits for Russian gas into Europe. Russian gas has continued to flow through Ukraine even after Moscow’s invasion.
James Huckstepp, at S&P Global Platts, said the leaks increased uncertainty in the energy market.
“The probability of Nord Stream 1 coming back before the end of the year has essentially dropped from 1 per cent to 0 per cent,” Huckstepp said. “But there remain concerns about the remaining gas flows through Ukraine and whether they could see reductions later this year.”
Henning Gloystein, at Eurasia Group, said the pipelines — with capacity to transport about 165mn cubic metres a day — “are designed to avert accidental damage”, pointing out that they consist of concrete-coated thick steel pipes that lie on the seabed.
But he added: “Given both lines were still pressured and each has the capacity to pipe around 165mn cubic metres of methane-heavy gas per day, leaks of this size are a severe safety and environmental hazard.”
Nord Stream, the pipelines’ Swiss-based operator whose majority shareholder is Russian state-owned energy company Gazprom, said the incidents were “unprecedented”, but suggested most of the leaking methane would dissolve in the water.
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2022-09-27 11:15:30Z
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