UK Sport says it hopes Team GB will win between 45 and 70 medals at Tokyo 2020.
This has come down quite considerably from the ambition of between 54 to 92 medals that was set in 2018.
It said the new aspirations follow close consultation with sports and take account of the "extraordinary circumstances" presented to athletes and staff in the build-up to the Games.
Success will also be measured in a "broader and more holistic" way than just medals.
ParalympicsGB has been given a range of between 100 and 140 medals.
At Rio 2016, Great Britain finished second in both the Olympics and Paralympics medal tables, with 67 and 147 medals respectively.
No 'targets' are being set for these Games, or a medal range being shared for each sport, because UK Sport said the process of monitoring progress and potential has been "severely compromised" by the pandemic.
UK Sport's chief executive Sally Munday said broader metrics of success would include the happiness and pride of the nation from the performances and athletes getting on the start line and back home safely.
She added Team GB had "tremendous potential" and the 376-strong team was on course to surpass the haul of 47 medals in Beijing - and could get close to what was achieved in Rio.
There will be British representation in 26 of the 33 Olympic sports.
Dame Katherine Grainger, Great Britain's most decorated Olympian with five medals, said there was a "real sense of ambition" throughout the teams, but it was "much harder to predict" how they would fare in terms of medals due to Covid.
On why the upper end of the medal range has been brought down by 22, she told BBC Sport: "The biggest thing for these Games, there is so much pressure and uncertainty swirling around all the sports.
"They're dealing with things they've never dealt with before and the teams are under immense pressure to deliver a safe environment for their athletes to go and compete and come back safely.
"I think the last thing we wanted to do was get into difficult conversations of raising everyone's levels, of what we think they can deliver, because there is this unknown.
"So at the moment, to take some of the pressure off, let's be realistic about what we feel comfortable predicting, but not beyond that. I will be the first to be over the moon if we smash through those ranges."
Grainger said she has no doubt there will be "incredible moments that are going to light up people's lives".
Penny Briscoe, chef de mission of ParalympicsGB, said: "Athletes' resilience, determination and adaptability - and the professionalism and dedication of staff - make me confident we have done everything within our power to take a competitive ParalympicsGB team to Tokyo.
"One that will inspire and unite the nation, celebrating the resilience of the human spirit with the athletes leading the way."
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2021-07-08 21:35:22Z
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