Republican Glenn Youngkin becomes shock new governor of Virginia as mid-term blues forecast for Joe Biden - Sky News

Analysis by Mark Stone, US Correspondent in Washington DC

Only a few hours before the results began to emerge in these bellwether local elections, President Joe Biden was predicting wins for his Democratic colleagues.

Of course, you wouldn’t expect him to predict a loss, but his confidence of victory was striking and only adds to the significance of the results.

Virginia has been a Democratic heartland for the past decade.

New Jersey is, or was a strong deep blue state.

Overnight that changed. Virginia now has a Republican governor and, as I write, the New Jersey race is still too close to call.

All this matters because the two states were key to securing Mr Biden the White House almost exactly a year ago.

Education, race and mask mandates were the key issues energising the conservative base.

It’s a bad sign for the Democratic Party as it hopes to hold both houses in Congress next year.

The Trump factor in all of this is fascinating.

Glenn Younkin in Virginia has walked a fine balance - not overtly supporting Trumpian politics but certainly not rejecting it either.

Mr Younkin knew he needed Trump’s base support (which remains strong and influential) in order to win.

But he also needed to attract those more moderate conservatives who are not fans of Mr Trump’s style or politics.

Mr Younkin accepted Trump’s endorsement but avoided appearing on stage with him (Trump is readily available, holding rallies frequently – he’s never really stopped campaigning since he lost the election).

Younkin’s strategy seems to have worked: he successfully delivered subtly different messages for different audiences.

This could well be a strategy we see play out all over the country in the run-up to the mid-term elections as Republican politicians seek to pull in a very divided conservative political landscape.

But, was Younkin’s job made easier by a faltering presidency under Joe Biden? Are centrist, Democratic-leaning voters regretting their endorsement of Joe Biden?

His popularity has fallen more in the first nine months of his presidency than any other US president since 1945, according to a Gallup poll a few weeks ago.

He has failed to get his flagship policies past lawmakers on Capitol Hill.

His Afghanistan endgame was a disaster. And his coronavirus policies continue to be hugely divisive.

As America looks towards the crucial mid-term elections next year, last night in Virginia and New Jersey were key moments.

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2021-11-03 13:07:25Z
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