Cincunri Sakia: London Playbook: On the Hunt for cash — Rishi dun roamin’

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By EMILIO CASALICCHIO

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Good Thursday morning. This is Emilio Casalicchio for Autumn Statement pleasures this morning and Friday.

DRIVING THE DAY

ON THE HUNT FOR CASH: Jeremy Hunt will announce massive spending cuts and tax rises this morning in an attempt to mop up the damage of the Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng mini-budget as he delivers his much-anticipated Autumn Statement. The chancellor was last night putting the final touches to his speech ahead of a Commons announcement at 11.30 a.m. which is expected to run for about an hour. It’s a make-or-break moment for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak that could renew Conservative hopes of winning another election or send the party hurtling faster toward a crushing defeat.

How to watch the Autumn Statement like a pro: The Hunt statement was scheduled for 10.30 a.m. but has been held back so that Sunak can make a statement beforehand about his G20 summit. Hunt will appear outside No. 11 at around 10.40 a.m. with a big folder — not a red box since it’s not a budget. Once he finishes speaking at around 12.30 p.m. the documents (including the OBR forecasts) will appear on the government website and Hunt’s Labour counterpart Rachel Reeves will deliver a response.

Outside the Commons: The all-important OBR will set out its workings in a presentation at 2 p.m. It’s the first time the official fiscal watchdog will make its thoughts known in the wake of the disastrous mini-budget Truss and Kwarteng announced less than two months ago. Look out for that all-important word … “recession.” Hunt is this afternoon heading out on a visit in south London and will do a round of sit-down interviews that are expected to land before teatime.

The official line: According to a trail of the Autumn Statement released overnight, Hunt will tell the Commons his fiscal plan will help Britain “face into the storm” amid global issues over fuel and inflation. Truss doesn’t get a mention for some reason. Hunt will vow to be “honest about the challenges, and fair in our solutions” and to “protect the vulnerable, because to be British is to be compassionate.” To be British is also to be trapped on a political rollercoaster, it seems.

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Reading between the lines: The government hopes the plan will get a grip on soaring inflation and limit rising interest rates. The pledge is to balance the books while supporting the most vulnerable and seeing those with the broadest shoulders bear the heaviest load. Let’s see what the OBR and the Institute for Fiscal Studies make of it before drawing conclusions though. It’s a shame there are no government ministers to ask about the plan on the broadcast round for the [checks notes] third morning in a row.

In numbers: Playbook hears the plan involves around £30 billion in spending cuts and £24 billion in tax rises over the next half-decade. No wonder the Sun has mocked Hunt up as “scrooge” and asking how “miserly” the announcement will be.

What to expect: Playbook’s secret weapon Andrew McDonald has tallied up as many of the Autumn Statement measures leaked or briefed to various news outlets over the past few weeks as he could find. Playbook has added traffic lights to indicate whether each measure is expected () … unsure () … or not tipped to happen () … based on whispers last night from inside government. Bear in mind this is a best guess; the messenger is not enthusiastic about being shot.

That speculation in full: Ditching the triple lock and squeezing benefits payments … Not returning aid spending to 0.7 percent of GDP until 2028 … Freezing income tax thresholds and allowances beyond the next election … Increasing the rate of the windfall tax on oil and gas producers from 25 percent to 35 percent and extending its lifetime to 2028 … Increasing the tax that banks have to pay on profits (corporation tax will rise but the bank surcharge will drop from 8 percent to 3 percent) … Including electricity generators in a windfall tax of at least 40 percent … Real-terms cuts until 2026 to the defense budget … Cuts to capital spending … New road taxes for electric car and van owners from 2025 … A new tax on rich foreigners who speculate on U.K. property … Freezing income tax thresholds to 2028 … Limiting public sector pay rises to 2 percent across the board in 2023/24 (not a decision for Hunt but HMT is accounting for a 2 percent rise) … Delaying Boris Johnson’s social care reforms until 2025 … Not increasing the headline rates of income tax, National Insurance and VAT … Lowering capital spending on science … Shelving Liz Truss’ promise to beef up Northern Powerhouse rail (not for now, at least) …

And breathe: Hiking the headline rate of capital gains tax (however the tax-free allowance is expected to be cut in half) … Not extending the Truss stamp duty cut … Raising the dividend taxation rate and cutting the tax-free allowance for dividends … Introducing changes to non-dom status … Changing pensions tax relief for higher rate earners … Allowing councils to hike local taxes by up to 5 percent without a referendum … Reducing the rate at which income tax relief is applied to higher-rate taxpayers from 40p to as low as 20p … Freezing inheritance tax thresholds … Increasing pensions and benefits in line with inflation … Freezing the pensions lifetime allowance for two years … Raising the top rate of income tax and lowering the threshold from £150,000 to £125,000 … Extending a freeze on the business VAT threshold … Hiking the National Insurance rate paid by employers by 1.25 percentage points … Scrapping investment zones … Cutting planned growth in day-to-day public spending after 2025 from 3.7 percent to 1 percent … Not expanding free school meals despite calls …

Almost there: Selling underused government buildings and shifting to digital public services … Targeted one-off payments to help vulnerable customers with energy bills after April … A rise in the energy price cap from £2,500 on average to £3,000 … Raising the National Living Wage to £10.40 an hour … Offering cost of living payments to those on means-tested benefits … Freezing tax-free allowances for ISAs … Pumping more cash into the NHS although seems probable and about time, Health Foundation data shared with the FT shows … Billions of pounds to insulate homes and upgrade boilers, alongside a public info campaign about reducing fuel consumption (Playbook also hears the new Sizewell nuclear plant will get a reaffirmed go-ahead) … Reforming Solvency II insurance rules … And a 7 percent rise in rents for social housing tenants in a partial shield from inflation .

How to respond to all that: Team Rachel Reeves spent the 24 hours ahead of the statement crunching spreadsheets in her office and looking at what economies all over the world are doing, while drinking much too much Diet Coke and eating grapes. The shadow chancellor last night said the U.K. had “so much potential but we are falling behind on the global stage, while mortgages, food and energy costs all go up and up. The country is being held back by 12 years of Tory economic failure and wasted opportunities and working people are paying the price.”

Speaking of Labour: In his latest Spectator column, James Forsyth sets out how Labour could respond with a plan to tinker around the edges of the Hunt agenda, or set out its own full-blown shadow budget.

And from the other side of the mag divide: “A country with a healthy industrial base, able to export its way out of trouble, would not be a country experimenting once more with — yes, that word again — austerity,” veteran broadcaster Andrew Marr wrote in his latest New Statesman cover piece. It’s like he’s offering up Labour attack lines.

How Conservative backbenchers will respond: MPs on the right will be concerned about the £24 billion in tax rises but might be willing to swallow the pill seeing as a number of the measures wouldn’t come in until after the next election. One noted to Playbook that the statement will be “lose, lose” seeing as “there’s no meat on the bones in departments for further cuts either. The George Osborne cuts weren’t kidding around.” Former Cabinet Minister Jacob Rees-Mogg told Peston last night he would back the government despite hating the tax rises.

Meanwhile … the “one nation” caucus will be pleased to see benefits uprated in line with inflation and a hike in the minimum wage. The group will accept a postponed rise in aid spending through gritted teeth and are more willing to accept tax rises than their pals on the right. “No one takes pleasure in tax rises but it’s something we have to do,” one said.

Oh and … Esther McVey will presumably be voting against the Autumn Statement in the Commons — which would be rebelling on an effective confidence vote.

What else to look out for: Rees-Mogg blaming the Bank of England for the current inflation woes (as he was doing on Peston last night) and Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill defending the BoE when he speaks at the Bristol Festival of Economics at 12.30 p.m.

NOW READ THIS: “If the prime minister and his chancellor can get this week right, delivering an Autumn Statement that is not merely Austerity 2.0 but a new approach that they can convincingly defend as both honest and fair, the Conservatives under Sunak still have a road to recovery,” pollster James Johnson writes for POLITICO.

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BALI HARVEST

RISHI DUN ROAMIN’: Rishi Sunak will convene his Cabinet at 8.30 a.m. to sign off the Autumn Statement after touching down in Britain less than an hour ago following the G20 summit in Bali. Three hours or so into the long-haul flight, Sunak ventured to the back of the plane in a tracksuit, blue sweater and Nike trainers for an informal chat with waiting hacks.

On the menu: For dinner on the plane, the Lobby was served veggie sushi with a little plastic pot of soy sauce and a main course of salmon with soggy noodles worse than you’d find in any restaurant, Playbook’s Eleni Courea reports back.

RISHI’S G-SPOT: As noted above, Sunak will update the Commons on his G20 field trip at 10.30 a.m. No doubt he will burnish his Indo-Pacific-tilt credentials after high-profile meetings with crucial world leaders. Eleni writes in her wrap of the G20 summit that allies of the PM believe his heritage makes him uniquely placed to deliver on the “look East” agenda. One said Sunak becoming PM was “hugely powerful” in Asia “and says a lot about who we are.”

Rishi <3 Jokowi: Sunak plans to foster closer relations with emerging economies in Asia that are not aligned with the West, Russia or China. One person involved in discussions told Eleni that the PM plans to welcome Indonesian President Joko Widodo for a visit to London in mid-December which could include an audience with the king. The British plan to join the CPTPP trade pact is also a significant milestone.

But but but: POLITICO’s trade team hears China’s application to join CPTPP has complicated matters, with current members refusing to “dumb down” the requirements for entry so as not to set a precedent that could be used as leverage by Beijing in its own accession talks. Others note that CPTPP nations are waiting to see if the U.K. manages to stabilize itself after a rollercoaster few months.

Line to Beijing: The most significant change Sunak is making to British foreign policy is opening the door to closer relations with China. The PM had been due to hold a surprise meeting with Xi Jinping but those plans were scuppered by emergency talks about the missile strike in Poland. Be in no doubt though — China is one subject we’ll be hearing a lot more about.

Door not wide open: However, the U.K. instructed Chinese-owned technology company Nexperia to sell at least 86 percent of the Newport Wafer Fab factory it acquired last year, citing national security grounds. Full write-up here from POLITICO’s Cristina Gallardo.

DOMINIC A-RAAB-IATA!

IT GOES DOM AND DOM: It seems all corners of Whitehall who have worked with Dominic Raab are out for the justice chief at the moment. Playbook hears from a former Foreign Office official that when Raab was running the department he oversaw a “complete degradation in morale” in his private office and was disparaging toward officials, sometimes in front of ministers. During the 2019 election, just a few months after he took the foreign brief, his private office was said to be “doing rain dances” in the hope the minister would lose his seat and therefore not return.

Pedant for the formatting: Multiple people confirmed that one of the things Raab was super uptight about was the formatting of ministerial submissions (documents from officials containing advice or requests for approvals and authorizations). He was said to dismiss submissions that were not formatted how he liked them or that had a Department for International Development heading (the two offices would produce joint submissions when DFID still existed).

Making the grade: Raab even created a grading regime for submissions, and civil service bosses would be held responsible if their team received regular low grades. At one point three directors-general found themselves working on a single submission for the best part of a week to ensure Raab wouldn’t just bin it. Officials said they felt the department had become cowed and overworked in a bid to manage the minister’s ego rather than enact meaningful change.

The defense: Allies of Raab told Playbook he likes things to contain correct spellings and clear formatting, but that the grading regime was to rate the advice not the presentation of documents. His allies also reject claims that submissions with DFID headings were dismissed, or that he oversaw plummeting morale and was disparaging toward officials. Raab told the Commons during PMQs he was “confident that I have behaved professionally throughout” after requesting a formal conduct investigation.

Sticking up for Dom: “I never saw him being disparaging of private secretaries, staff members or doing anything that came close to bullying,” former Foreign Office Minister James Duddridge, who worked with Raab at the time, told Playbook. Duddridge confirmed however that Raab was strict about submissions and liked a specific format to ensure he could get through a high volume of work — in part because he liked to scrutinize the detail himself.

More FCDO vibes: The i newspaper team of Arj Singh, Richard Vaughan and Chloe Chaplain quote an official who said junior foreign office staff were “protected” from Raab. “Very senior officials knew he was a menace, and so time and contact with him was hugely limited, the person said. “The guy was just a totally arrogant, pompous bully.” People close to Raab told the paper he rejected the claims.

BTW: No word from Downing Street on who will conduct the investigation into complaints against Raab or who will be the new government ethics adviser. Playbook remains willing to serve the nation if called upon.

HANCOCK WATCH

PLAYBOOK’S ANDREW MCDONALD WATCHES HANCOCK SO YOU DON’T HAVE TO: MP for the jungle Matt Hancock is tonight in with a shot of winning a brief trip to the beach and a surf-and-turf barbecue — which is sure to win over wavering members of the public to his dyslexia campaign. But before that, he looks set to take part in another gruesome trial fishing around for plastic stars while critters crawl into his pants.

Running from questions: The sheep’s-vagina-munching MP found himself at the center of a clash between Boy George (a.k.a convicted felon George Alan O’Dowd) and presenter Scarlette Douglas during a debate about his political views. During what comedian Seann Walsh dubbed “PMQs, live from the jungle,” Douglas unlocked her best SpAd impression and whisked Hancock away so he didn’t have to answer a slightly awkward question on arms spending. “Matt’s an adult, he can look after himself,” the pop star complained. To be fair, the so-called adult then point-blank refused to answer the question. Relive the high drama via the Independent write-up here.

Breakfast warning: Hancock also revealed during the impromptu question time that he hates the word “moist.”

He’s loving it: Following another dreadful trial performance from a non-Hancock celeb, the former health secretary enthusiastically put himself forward to take part in Scareground — the trial in tonight’s episode. This time ITV let the celebs choose the victims among themselves rather than risk the public ignoring Hancock for a third vote in a row. And to be fair to Hancock, he’s better at collecting plastic stars while cockroaches nibble at his unmentionables than he is at meeting self-imposed targets for COVID testing without fudging the numbers.

Not loving it: The 1,100 people who have moaned to Ofcom about his appearance on the show.

Mentions of dyslexia: You don’t need us to answer this one.

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TODAY IN WESTMINSTER

HOUSE OF COMMONS: Sits from 9.30 a.m. with Defra questions. Commons leader Penny Mordaunt has the weekly business statement before the PM statement on the G20, then Hunt’s Autumn Statement at 11.30 a.m. There will be a general debate after all that for International Men’s Day, which is actually Saturday.

COMMITTEE CORRIDOR: The public accounts committee will be quizzing senior Treasury officials on fraud and loss to the taxpayer from COVID employment schemes (10 a.m.).

HOUSE OF LORDS: Sits from 11 a.m. with the introduction of new peers SME4Labour founder Sonny Leong and Tory leader of Bexley Council Teresa O’Neill, followed by questions on carers in debt, tackling childhood obesity and Paris overtaking London as Europe’s most valuable stock market. There will then be debates on long COVID, the success of national women’s sports and the housing market.

NOT LIFTING WAITS: Labour lashed out at the government after a damning independent report found the NHS is on course to fail in its target to cut long waits for treatment and cancer care before 2025. The National Audit Office said government funding had not kept up with inflation, and that NHS workforce issues had reduced the chances of clearing the post-COVID backlogs. Shadow Health Secretary Wes Streeting said the government’s “failure to meet its unambitious targets will leave more patients in pain and discomfort for years to come.”

PEEKING TOM: Home Office Minister Tom Tugendhat faces a possible driving ban this morning after he admitted peeking at his phone while driving. The case is due to kick off at Westminster Magistrates’ Court at 10 a.m.

SPOTTED: At the Labour event at Bloomberg for Shadow Cabinet members to hobnob with the business world: The BCC’s Shevaun Haviland … the CBI’s Tony Danker … FGS Global’s Roland Rudd … HSBC’s Sherard Cowper-Coles … Impax Asset Management’s Ian Simm … the IoD’s Kitty Usher … Aviva’s Amanda Blanc … L&G’s Nigel Wilson … Lloyds’s Charlie Nunn … Octopus’s Greg Jackson … Teneo’s Nick Claydon … Severn Trent’s Paul Lindley … Diageo’s Nuno Teles … and more.

The sales pitch: Leader Keir Starmer and Shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves made speeches insisting Labour was not just pro-business but “proud of being pro-business.” Starmer said Labour “understands the only way to a fairer, greener, more dynamic Britain is to back private enterprise to the hilt.” Bloomberg’s Emily Ashton has a write-up.

Speaking of Labour: New polling for the Best for Britain campaign group finds the Labour poll lead isn’t all that concrete. Full details here.

BEYOND THE M25

COMING ATTRACTION: The Supreme Court will deliver its judgment next Wednesday morning on the Scottish parliament’s IndyRef powers. That’s much sooner than was expected, though apparently nothing should be read into the court’s swift deliberations. Whatever the court decides, there will be (yet another) almighty constitutional row.

Useful info: A few thousand supporters of Scottish independence are planning to make the trip down to London to mark the occasion, the Times’ Kieran Andrews reports.

MIDTERM RESULT: The U.S. Republicans have won back control of the House following more midterm vote-counting, giving them the power to thwart parts of Joe Biden’s agenda over the next two years. They’ll have only a tiny majority, despite pre-election predictions of an onrushing red wave. Here’s POLITICO’s write-up.

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MEDIA ROUND

Good Morning Britain: Former Education Secretary Justine Greening (7.25 a.m.) … Comedian David Baddiel (8.30 a.m.).

Kay Burley: Former Boris adviser Alex Crowley (7.30 a.m.) … Lib Dem MP Sarah Olney (7.45 a.m.) … Shadow Chief Secretary to the Treasury Pat McFadden (8.05 a.m.) … Treasury committee Chairwoman Harriet Baldwin (8.20 a.m.) … Lithuanian PM Ingrida Šimonytė (8.30 a.m.) … SNP Westminster leader Ian Blackford (8.45 a.m.) … Former MI6 chief John Sawers (9.30 a.m.).

Today program: IFS boss Paul Johnson (6.35 a.m.) … President of Queens’ College, Cambridge Mohamed Aly El-Erian (7.10 a.m.).

Nick Ferrari at Breakfast (LBC): Former Treasury SpAd Richard Davies (7.05 a.m.).

TalkTV Breakfast: Tory MP John Redwood (7.05 a.m.) … CBI Vice President Karan Bilimoria (7.12 a.m.) … Tory MP David Davis (8.05 a.m.) … Former McDonnell adviser James Meadway (9.05 a.m.).

Times Radio breakfast: Treasury committee Chairwoman Harriet Baldwin (7.05 a.m.) … FSB National Chair Martin McTague (8.05 a.m.).

Politics Live (BBC Two 11 a.m.): Labour MP Rushanara Ali … Tory MP Vicky Ford … IFS boss Paul Johnson … Chief Secretary to the Treasury John Glen and his shadow Pat McFadden … SNP MP Richard Thomson … Lib Dem deputy leader Daisy Cooper.

Tonight with Andrew Marr (LBC 6 p.m.): IFS boss Paul Johnson.

Cross Question with Iain Dale (LBC 8 p.m.): Former Bank of England official Ian McCafferty … KPMG chief economist Yael Selfin … New Economics Foundation chief economist Alfie Sterling … Uni of Oxford economist Linda Yueh.

Peston Autumn Statement special (Twitter 9 p.m. and ITV 11 p.m.): Chancellor Jeremy Hunt … Shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves … Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon.

Question Time (iPlayer 8 p.m. or BBC One 10.40 p.m.): Treasury Minister Victoria Atkins … Shadow Work and Pensions Secretary Jonathan Ashworth … SNP Westminster leader Ian Blackford … Broadcaster Trevor Phillips … The Spectator’s Kate Andrews.

Reviewing the papers tonight: Sky News (10.30 and 11.30 p.m.): Columnist Carole Malone and editor of the Courier David Clegg … talkTV (10.20 p.m.): The Spectator’s Isabel Hardman and former No. 10 chief of staff Nick Timothy.

TODAY’S FRONT PAGES

(Click on the publication’s name to see its front page.)

Daily Express: D-day for U.K. … Hunt’s ‘fair and honest’ plan to fix future.

Daily Mail: Supermarkets to ration eggs.

Daily Mirror: Spies foil Iran plots to murder Brits.

Daily Star: To boldly go bigly.

Financial Times: Hunt aims big cuts and tax rises at repairing Britain’s frayed reputation.

HuffPostUK: Hunt braces U.K. for economic ‘storm.’

i: Hunt reveals U.K.’s new age of austerity.

Metro: Grin and bear it!

PoliticsHome: Government ‘lack of coordination’ has led to ‘chaotic’ refugee rehousing schemes.

POLITICO UK: Rishi Sunak spies Britain’s future — In the Indo-Pacific.

The Daily Telegraph: We will face into storm, says Hunt as taxes surge.

The Guardian: Millions face rise in energy bills as Hunt lifts price cap.

The Independent: Bank hits out at ministers over ‘damaged’ economy.

The Sun: Toney charged over 232 bets.

The Times: Hunt’s taxes target the wealthy.

TODAY’S NEWS MAGS

POLITICO: When pipe dreams become nightmares.

The New Statesman: The state we’re in — How a new age of austerity will change Britain.

The Spectator: The squeeze — How long will the pain last.

LONDON CALLING

WESTMINSTER WEATHER: Cloudy, light rain and breezy. Highs of 11C.

SPOTTED … At WPI Strategy’s annual party in Westminster, with opening remarks from Security Minister Tom Tugendhat … Tory MPs Andy Carter, Alan Mak, Damian Green, Nick Fletcher, James Davies, Stephen Hammond and James Wild … Tory peers Jim Bethell and Natalie Evans … Former No. 10 joint chief of staff Nick Timothy … Current No. 10 SpAds Sheridan Westlake and Tom D’Silva … Other SpAds including Lucy Noakes, Sam Hamilton and Michael Stott … U.K. Music chief Jamie Njoku-Goodwin … Hacks Martyn Brown, Christian Calgie, Katy Balls, Lara Spirit, Marie Le Conte, Mikey Smith, Ben Glaze, Martin Ivens … Think tankers Robert Colvile and Adam Hawksbee … Labour PAD Anthony McCaul.

GLORIA BE TO GOD: The deep-dive Gloria De Piero interviews on GB News are moving from their midweek slot to Sunday evenings. Her new show, “Gloria Meets,” will also include focus groups from around the U.K. Here’s the tweet.

NEW GIG 1: Conservative former Minister Robin Walker was elected to chair the education committee.

NEW GIG 2: Former Dominic Raab SpAd Jack Woolidge is joining the Institute for Government after spending the best part of a decade working in politics. Here’s his announcement.

BOTANICAL NEWS: The 40-foot Christmas tree that will adorn the Palace of Westminster over the festive season will today be cut down in the Keilder Forest, Northumberland.

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Crossbench peer and ex-Chief of the Defense Staff Charles Guthrie … Birkenhead MP Mick Whitley … Conservative Home Editor Paul Goodman … Former Tory Party Chairman Jeremy Hanley … Lib Dem peer Malcolm Bruce … HuffPost UK Deputy Political Editor Sophia Sleigh … U.K. Ambassador to Turkey Dominick Chilcott … South African President Cyril Ramaphosa.

PLAYBOOK COULDN’T HAPPEN WITHOUT: My editor Zoya Sheftalovich, reporter Andrew McDonald and producer Grace Stranger.

Cincunri Sakia

Kamis, 17 November 2022

London Playbook: On the Hunt for cash — Rishi dun roamin’ — Dominic A-Raab-iata! - POLITICO Europe