By Mark Stone, US correspondent
Washington DC is waking up to the news that some of Russia's military appears to be withdrawing. But the signals are mixed.
It will be another day of predicting the workings of Vladimir Putin's mind. Another day of trying to work out who is bluffing.
The central question remains: Will Mr Putin engage in diplomacy and back down? Or was his plan always to make undeliverable demands of the West as a pretext to invade? Or to encourage "Western hysteria" and then repeat the Crimea performance, taking just a little of eastern Ukraine?
His foreign minister told him from one end of a long table in the Kremlin that diplomacy still has road to run.
"Good," the Russian president replied.
A bluff, televised for us all to see? Or, is America's assessment that Mr Putin will invade on Wednesday the bluff?
I spent much of the day yesterday in the State Department. The chat has been of denying the ability for Putin to create a "false flag" – attacking his own side, blaming it on the other side, then using that as an excuse to invade.
Surely the US embassy closure in Kyiv is a solid signal that America really does think an invasion is imminent? Or is it just prudence after Afghanistan and the prospect, even a remote one, of a face-off between US marines and Russian troops?
Of the analysts and diplomats I talk to behind the scenes in Washington and Moscow, there are varied assessments. The closer you probe to Kyiv and Moscow, the more you hear from people that an invasion won't happen.
In real-time, we're watching American, European and Russian posturing and statecraft play out. It's complex diplomacy with a good dose of misinformation from both sides, no doubt; each trying to expose the other.
Bluff, counter bluff. Truth and disinformation. This could end horribly this week or run for many months.
https://news.google.com/__i/rss/rd/articles/CBMiiAFodHRwczovL25ld3Muc2t5LmNvbS9zdG9yeS91a3JhaW5lLWxpdmUtdXBkYXRlcy11ay1pbnRlbGxpZ2VuY2Utd2FybnMtcnVzc2lhLWNvdWxkLWludmFkZS1hdC1hbnktbW9tZW50LWFzLWNyaXRpY2FsLXdlZWstYmVnaW5zLTEyNTQxNzEz0gEA?oc=5
2022-02-15 11:40:59Z
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