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The outbreak of rioting in France is the stuff of bad dreams for President Emmanuel Macron.
To the list of other civil order crises he has had to surmount - terrorism, yellow-vests, left-wing protests over pensions - can now be added that persistent French crisis-in-waiting which is the banlieue - or suburb.
Sporadically over the last 18 years there have been outbreaks of rioting in the suburban cités or tenements, whose once-immigrant populations are now often third- or fourth- generation French.
Typically triggered by the accidental death or injury of a young male resident - an accident blamed on the police - they tended not to last more than a night or two.
Not since 2005 has there been a protracted trauma of the kind that now threatens.
Back then, as now, troubled banlieues went up in flames one by one across the country, as one suburb after another copycatted what had gone before.
Then as now, the main targets (beyond the easy prey of parked cars) were town halls, police stations and schools - any building essentially that might be flying a French flag.
And back then the rallying cries of protesters were social neglect, racial discrimination and police brutality. Again today, slogans that are little changed.
Yet in many ways things have changed.
Look for example at the billions of euros being spent on the Grand Paris Express project, which is putting new metro and tram connections across the suburbs and combating the social isolation that was said to be one of the main banlieue grievances.
Look at the spanking new public buildings in Paris suburbs like Nanterre or Massy. Neglect there is not a word that comes to mind.
Look at the growing numbers of people ofAfrican or Maghrebi origin who are now serving in the police - many more than were visible in 2005. Or at the efforts to get more people from the banlieues into elite schools and universities.
And look at how public language has changed. Old-fashioned bigotry towards minorities, which might have enjoyed an indulgent wink two or three decades ago, will invite condemnation today, if not prosecution.
The point is that France is changing, like everywhere else is.
But despite that, everyone in France also knows that there is still - neglected but festering - this ancient scar which is the problem of the banlieues.
It is a scar born of colonialism, arrogance, long-gone wars and nurtured hatreds - to which might be added drugs, crime and religion. And it is not about to disappear.
President Emmanuel Macron had fervently been praying that the banlieue phenomenon would not be added to his litany of burdens, but his wish has not been granted.
This evening the suburbs will be swamped with police officers, in the hope that mass deployment will provide the shock that can bring the riots to an end.
But President Macron knows his history.
He knows that the 2005 riots lasted three weeks and only ended after the declaration of a state of emergency, with curfews and house arrests.
We are not there yet, but we could be.
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2023-06-29 14:40:43Z
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