French election: centrists and left urge tactical voting as exit polls say Le Pen’s far-right is ahead in first round - The Guardian

With polls now closed, first estimates have been published.

Note that these numbers should be treated with caution: while these figures show broad election dynamics, they do not necessarily reflect the final outcome given that there are 577 constituency votes – and a second round next weekend.

Here are the estimates from IFOP:

Far right National Rally: 34.2%

Leftwing New Popular Front: 29.1%

Emmanuel Macron’s allies Together: 21.5%

Here are the estimates conducted for BFMTV:

Far right National Rally: 33%

Leftwing New Popular Front: 28.5%

Emmanuel Macron’s allies Together: 22%

Here are more images from protests in Paris

With the results of final counts still coming in from constituencies, 65 MPs have been elected in the first round – a high number.

These included 38 MPs for the far-right National Rally and its alliance with Eric Ciotti of Les Républicains. That figure is more than double the number Marine Le Pen had said she expected.

Twenty-one MPs from the left alliance were elected in the first round, with two for Emmanuel Macron’s centrist grouping.

A majority of constituencies will face a second-round run-off.

The hard left France Unbowed’s Jean-Luc Mélenchon is now addressing a crowd at Place de la République in Paris.

In a sign of the far-right National Rally’s historic surge, at least 20 of its candidates were elected to parliament in the first round on Sunday night – a higher number than the party had expected.

Far-right candidates were elected in northern areas including l’Aisne, the Somme and the Pas-de-Calais as well as in Burgundy. Marine Le Pen was re-elected in the former coal-mining town of Hénin Beaumont in the north.

Marie-Caroline Le Pen, Marine Le Pen’s older sister, is in a strong position for the second round run-off in the Sarthe, historically a stronghold of the traditional right.

The French Union of Jewish Students has said “danger is imminent” and called on candidates to withdraw from three-way races to help defeat the far-right – with the exception of races involving France Unbowed (LFI).

Here’s where the estimates stand, according to Ipsos.

Estimates are indicators of the national political dynamics, but not necessarily of the final outcome of the election, which depends on races in individual constituencies.

The prime minister, Gabriel Attal, had been due to sign a decree on Monday morning introducing new limits on unemployment benefits – a policy that had been attacked by the far right and the left.

Attal announced on Sunday he had suspended that decree.

To win one of the 577 seats in the national assembly in the first round, a candidate must get more than 50% of ballots cast, representing at least 25% of registered voters.

This usually happens only rarely, although the 2024 election’s high turnout has seen the number rise sharply to perhaps as many as 80.

If no candidate in a constituency achieves that, the two highest scorers plus anyone else who collected at least 12.5% of total registered voters advance to a second round. In that round, the candidate who obtains the most votes is elected.

The combination of the highest turnout since the 1980s and fewer candidates – 4,011 against 6,290 in 2022 – from just three main camps (left, centre and far right) – means the second round of the 2024 ballot will feature a record number of “triangular” contests.

The situation is highly uncertain and will remain fluid until the actual candidates running in the second round become clear. With up to half the seats in the assembly potentially becoming three-way contests, the scope for an anti-National Rally “Republican front” is clearly there – but the extent of inter-party cooperation will be critical, as will be voters’ willingness to vote tactically.

Read the full story here.

The prime minister, Gabriel Attal, has suspended the publication of a government decree on unemployment insurance reform.

Several thousand people gathered at Place de la République in Paris where leading figures in the left alliance were due to speak out against the far right.

Some people carried cardboard signs saying: “Bardella out”. Some young people were photographed in tears.

Street demonstrations also took place in cities including Strasbourg, Lyon, Nantes and Lille.

“This evening, in the serious moment in which France finds itself, it is essential that, in each constituency, the Republicans block both LFI [France Unbowed] and the RN [National Rally],” said Michel Barnier.

Congratulations are coming in from Europe’s far right.

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2024-06-30 21:33:00Z
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