With polls now closed, first estimates have been published.
Note that these numbers should be treated with caution: while these figures show broad election dynamics, they do not necessarily reflect the final outcome given that there are 577 constituency votes – and a second round next weekend.
Here are the estimates from IFOP:
Far right National Rally: 34.2%
Leftwing New Popular Front: 29.1%
Emmanuel Macron’s allies Together: 21.5%
Here are the estimates conducted for BFMTV:
Far right National Rally: 33%
Leftwing New Popular Front: 28.5%
Emmanuel Macron’s allies Together: 22%
This blog is closing soon but we’ll back in a few hours with all the latest updates. In the meantime, here’s a roundup of the key developments:
Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally won about 34% of the vote in the first round of legislative election, exit polls showed, putting it in reach of becoming the biggest political force in the French parliament.
The New Popular Front (NFP), a hastily assembled left-wing coalition, was projected to win around 29% of the vote, the exit polls showed, while President Emmanuel Macron’s Together alliance was on about 20.5%-23%.
Nevertheless, national estimates for the first round may not reflect the final breakdown of seats in the national assembly, which depends on races in constituencies.
Turnout was very high, with pollster Ipsos estimating that 65.8% of eligible voters cast ballots.
Speaking after polls closed, Le Pen said French people had shown “in an unambiguous vote … their wish to turn the page on seven years of the disdainful and corrosive [presidency]” of Macron.
Far-right figures from across Europe congratulated the National Rally.
Sixty-five MPs were elected in the first round – a high number. These included 38 MPs for the far-right National Rally and its alliance with Eric Ciotti of Les Républicains. That figure is more than double the number Le Pen had said she expected.
Pressure was mounting during the evening from left and centrist figures for tactical voting in the second round next Sunday.
Thousands took part in street demonstrations against the far right, including at the Place de la Republique in Paris, where barricades were set on fire and Jean-Luc Mélenchon, leader of the hard left France Unbowed party, addressed the crowd.
Gabriel Attal, the prime minister and a Macron ally, said “not one single vote” should go to the National Rally. “The stakes are clear: to prevent the National Rally from having an absolute majority,” he said.
Mélenchon said the left alliance would withdraw all its candidates who came third in the first round, saying: “Our guideline is simple and clear: not a single more vote for the National Rally.”
However it is not so clear that Macron’s centrist alliance will do the same. In a written statement, Macron called on voters to rally behind candidates who are “clearly republican and democratic”, which, based on his recent declarations, would include the NFP’s more moderate leftwing parties but exclude candidates from France Unbowed.
Attal had been due to sign a decree on Monday morning introducing new limits on unemployment benefits – a policy that had been attacked by the far right and the left – but decided to suspend the decree.
Market reaction to Sunday’s result was muted, Reuters reports, with the euro gaining around 0.23% in early Asia-Pacific trading.
Fiona Cincotta, senior markets analyst at London’s City Index, described relief that the result yielded “no surprises.” She said:
Le Pen had a slightly smaller margin than some of the polls had pointed to, which may have helped the euro a little bit higher on the open. Attention now is on July 7 to see whether the second round supports an absolute majority or not. So it does feel like we’re a little bit in limbo.
President Emmanuel Macron, whose centrist alliance is trailing in third place in exit polls, was seen out and about on the streets of Touquet in northern France earlier, rocking something of an aviator look:
A bit more analysis from professor of political science Fréderic Sawicki at the Sorbonne. His tweet reads,
For their own benefit, the dominant parties have been refusing to introduce proportional representation since 1988. The two-rounds majority vote has now turned against them; with a third of the votes the RN [National Rally] can in its turn win 50% of the seats. It’s up to these parties to prevent if by forming a republican front.
Some more images have come through to us via the wires of the Place de la Republique in Paris, where thousands of people have gathered to protest the first round election results that put National Rally in the lead:
A bit of snap analysis from one of our regular commentators, Cas Mudde:
French voters went to the polls for the first round of a snap legislative election.
An estimate by pollster Ipsos put the far right National Rally and its allies in the lead with 33.2% of the vote.
The estimate put the left wing New Popular Front at 28.1% and Emmanuel Macron’s allies, Together, at 21%.
Nevertheless, national estimates for the first round may not reflect the final breakdown of seats in the national assembly, which depends on races in constituencies.
Turnout was very high, with Ipsos estimating that 65.8% of eligible voters cast ballots.
Speaking after polls closed, the National Rally’s Marine Le Pen said French people had shown “in an unambiguous vote … their wish to turn the page on seven years of the disdainful and corrosive [presidency]” of Macron.
Far-right figures from across Europe congratulated the National Rally.
65 MPs were elected in the first round – a high number. These included 38 MPs for the far-right National Rally and its alliance with Eric Ciotti of Les Républicains. That figure is more than double the number Le Pen had said she expected.
Pressure was mounting during the evening from left and centrist figures for tactical voting in the second round next Sunday.
Thousands took part in street demonstrations against the far right.
In a written statement, Macron called on voters to rally behind candidates who are “clearly republican and democratic”.
Gabriel Attal, the prime minister and a Macron ally, said not a single vote should go to the National Rally.
Attal had been due to sign a decree on Monday morning introducing new limits on unemployment benefits – a policy that had been attacked by the far right and the left – but decided to suspend the decree.
Here are more images from protests in Paris
With the results of final counts still coming in from constituencies, 65 MPs have been elected in the first round – a high number.
These included 38 MPs for the far-right National Rally and its alliance with Eric Ciotti of Les Républicains. That figure is more than double the number Marine Le Pen had said she expected.
Twenty-one MPs from the left alliance were elected in the first round, with two for Emmanuel Macron’s centrist grouping.
A majority of constituencies will face a second-round run-off.
The hard left France Unbowed’s Jean-Luc Mélenchon is now addressing a crowd at Place de la République in Paris.
In a sign of the far-right National Rally’s historic surge, at least 20 of its candidates were elected to parliament in the first round on Sunday night – a higher number than the party had expected.
Far-right candidates were elected in northern areas including l’Aisne, the Somme and the Pas-de-Calais as well as in Burgundy. Marine Le Pen was re-elected in the former coal-mining town of Hénin Beaumont in the north.
Marie-Caroline Le Pen, Marine Le Pen’s older sister, is in a strong position for the second round run-off in the Sarthe, historically a stronghold of the traditional right.
The French Union of Jewish Students has said “danger is imminent” and called on candidates to withdraw from three-way races to help defeat the far-right – with the exception of races involving France Unbowed (LFI).
Here’s where the estimates stand, according to Ipsos.
Estimates are indicators of the national political dynamics, but not necessarily of the final outcome of the election, which depends on races in individual constituencies.
The prime minister, Gabriel Attal, had been due to sign a decree on Monday morning introducing new limits on unemployment benefits – a policy that had been attacked by the far right and the left.
Attal announced on Sunday he had suspended that decree.
To win one of the 577 seats in the national assembly in the first round, a candidate must get more than 50% of ballots cast, representing at least 25% of registered voters.
This usually happens only rarely, although the 2024 election’s high turnout has seen the number rise sharply to perhaps as many as 80.
If no candidate in a constituency achieves that, the two highest scorers plus anyone else who collected at least 12.5% of total registered voters advance to a second round. In that round, the candidate who obtains the most votes is elected.
The combination of the highest turnout since the 1980s and fewer candidates – 4,011 against 6,290 in 2022 – from just three main camps (left, centre and far right) – means the second round of the 2024 ballot will feature a record number of “triangular” contests.
The situation is highly uncertain and will remain fluid until the actual candidates running in the second round become clear. With up to half the seats in the assembly potentially becoming three-way contests, the scope for an anti-National Rally “Republican front” is clearly there – but the extent of inter-party cooperation will be critical, as will be voters’ willingness to vote tactically.
The prime minister, Gabriel Attal, has suspended the publication of a government decree on unemployment insurance reform.
Several thousand people gathered at Place de la République in Paris where leading figures in the left alliance were due to speak out against the far right.
Some people carried cardboard signs saying: “Bardella out”. Some young people were photographed in tears.
Street demonstrations also took place in cities including Strasbourg, Lyon, Nantes and Lille.
“This evening, in the serious moment in which France finds itself, it is essential that, in each constituency, the Republicans block both LFI [France Unbowed] and the RN [National Rally],” said Michel Barnier.
Congratulations are coming in from Europe’s far right.
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2024-06-30 23:46:00Z
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